Pounding one and only one game for Saturday:
Arizona +17 over Cal
Arizona has been a much different team since playing TCU and losing their coach. They are playing with a purpose and not giving up. This gives us value alone with the potential of a backdoor cover. However, I don't think we'll need it. The real problem with Arizona's offense was that it was too one dimensional earlier this year. . . pass pass pass. . . Mach wouldn't give Farmer the time of day to run the damn football basically keeping their best offensive weapon at bay allowing teams to play a zone and get away with it. Now with Farmer back, it allows the Cats' receivers a fighting chance on pass plays and less of a chance at interceptions. As to their defense, well, I'm still not sure they are improved, but it looks slightly improved since their performance against TCU. What I do know is that Arizona will be able to score against Cal so if this turns into a shootout, the Cats will be along for the ride. They have played Cal extremely well in the past especially on the road. . . in fact last year the Cats were 17 point dogs at Cal during their worst stretch of the season with the problems with Mach and pulled off an 11 point win. It could certainly happen again and the Cats are in a much better spot coming off a bye week without the coaching controversy. Couple trends for this one:
Arizona is 8-1 ATS as regular season dogs with rest
Arizona is 10-2 ATS as conference RDs getting 4 or more points
Dog in the Arizona/Cal series is 13-1 ATS
Cal is 2-15 ATS as conference favorites with revenge
Cal is 3-13 ATS as home favorites with revenge (basically same stat but still applies here)
Cal is 2-8 ATS as favorites off conference opponent.
Obviously many of those trends are crap, but what I like is Arizona coming off a week rest with a postive game against UCLA at home and now hitting the road where they have historically played better and California as never being that great of a team when facing revenge. Cal probably wins this game, but I expect a close game with Cal winning by no more than 13 points. . . realistically between 7-10 points.
Gl!
Arizona +17 over Cal
Arizona has been a much different team since playing TCU and losing their coach. They are playing with a purpose and not giving up. This gives us value alone with the potential of a backdoor cover. However, I don't think we'll need it. The real problem with Arizona's offense was that it was too one dimensional earlier this year. . . pass pass pass. . . Mach wouldn't give Farmer the time of day to run the damn football basically keeping their best offensive weapon at bay allowing teams to play a zone and get away with it. Now with Farmer back, it allows the Cats' receivers a fighting chance on pass plays and less of a chance at interceptions. As to their defense, well, I'm still not sure they are improved, but it looks slightly improved since their performance against TCU. What I do know is that Arizona will be able to score against Cal so if this turns into a shootout, the Cats will be along for the ride. They have played Cal extremely well in the past especially on the road. . . in fact last year the Cats were 17 point dogs at Cal during their worst stretch of the season with the problems with Mach and pulled off an 11 point win. It could certainly happen again and the Cats are in a much better spot coming off a bye week without the coaching controversy. Couple trends for this one:
Arizona is 8-1 ATS as regular season dogs with rest
Arizona is 10-2 ATS as conference RDs getting 4 or more points
Dog in the Arizona/Cal series is 13-1 ATS
Cal is 2-15 ATS as conference favorites with revenge
Cal is 3-13 ATS as home favorites with revenge (basically same stat but still applies here)
Cal is 2-8 ATS as favorites off conference opponent.
Obviously many of those trends are crap, but what I like is Arizona coming off a week rest with a postive game against UCLA at home and now hitting the road where they have historically played better and California as never being that great of a team when facing revenge. Cal probably wins this game, but I expect a close game with Cal winning by no more than 13 points. . . realistically between 7-10 points.
Gl!
