Pounding UMD -4

[JEFF]

This line is waaaaay short.

Clemson cannot run the ball, and MD pass D is very good. Allowed an ACC low 7 pass TDs this year compared to 12 INTs.

MD much better coached, Clemson seems happy just to be bowl eligible. This spread is too low!

 

[mw]

Home dog with the better defense and, with the emergence of Charlie Whitehurst, an exceptional passing game. I like the Tigers to win outright.

 

[gardenweasel]

the better defense?

the better defense?

certainly not the better run defense....clemson has been brutalized by top drawer running games....were lucky to win vs wake thanks to numerous turnovers...i was on nc st + the points last week...and this could be a possible letdown spot for the terps,but,they do have a big-time running game and bruce perry is now healthy...i`m not sure if this is a night game....that would play into clemson`s favor...and whitehurst is dangerous....but,maryland is a very young team...the first 3 or 4 games this season were not indicative of how good they are now...clemson doesn`t defend the run vs top running games and maryland is that...clemson`s running game,on the other hand,is inconsistent as i understand one of their top 2 backs are out....i lean maryland,but,home dogs can be trouble...best of luck mw and jeff..

 

[mw]

Gardenweasel, Maryland's rush D has performed better than Clemson's, but you're overstating things to say that Clemson's rush D has been brutalized. It was just three big gains by NC State and a couple missed tackles on the long run by Jones in the FSU game, and then the D tired and gave up some cheap yards in the fourth quarter against FSU when turnovers and bogus penalties kept the defense on the field continuously. The Wake game, because of the Wake scheme, doesn't really say anything about the rush D against normal schemes.

 

[JEFF]

Better defense?:nono:


I don't think so. Check out the numbers below.

And don't forget the coaching mismatch. That one also isnt close.

 

[JEFF]

A few stats

A few stats

TOTAL DEFENSE G Rush Pass Plys Yards Avg TD Yds/G
NC State 11 1437 1965 764 3402 4.5 24 309.3
Clemson 10 1537 1760 706 3297 4.7 25 329.7
Georgia Tech 10 1196 2218 688 3414 5.0 19 341.4
Maryland 10 1325 2131 726 3456 4.8 16 345.6
Florida State 10 1277 2464 682 3741 5.5 29 374.1
Duke 10 1184 2594 686 3778 5.5 33 377.8
Wake Forest 10 1357 2449 687 3806 5.5 30 380.6
Virginia 10 2174 2288 805 4462 5.5 32 446.2
North Carolina 10 2373 2309 729 4682 6.4 48 468.2

--- MD is giving up 16 more YPG, but only .3 more yards per play, and has allowed 9 less TD's.

RUSHING DEFENSE G Rushes Yards Avg. TD Yds/G
Duke 10 346 1184 3.4 16 118.4
Georgia Tech 10 338 1196 3.5 9 119.6
Florida State 10 358 1277 3.6 12 127.7
NC State 11 424 1437 3.4 13 130.6
Maryland 10 394 1325 3.4 8 132.5
Wake Forest 10 354 1357 3.8 13 135.7
Clemson 10 411 1537 3.7 14 153.7
Virginia 10 475 2174 4.6 19 217.4
North Carolina 10 473 2373 5.0 31 237.3

--Clemson giving up 20 more YPG and has allowed 14 rush TDs, to 8 for MD.

PASS DEFENSE G Att Cmp Int Pct. Yds Avg TD Yds/G
Clemson 10 295 171 16 58.0 1760 6.0 11 176.0
NC State 11 340 167 12 49.1 1965 5.8 11 178.6
Maryland 10 332 184 14 55.4 2131 6.4 8 213.1
Georgia Tech 10 350 189 9 54.0 2218 6.3 10 221.8
Virginia 10 330 204 9 61.8 2288 6.9 13 228.8
North Carolina 10 256 140 6 54.7 2309 9.0 17 230.9
Wake Forest 10 333 198 11 59.5 2449 7.4 17 244.9
Florida State 10 324 178 14 54.9 2464 7.6 17 246.4
Duke 10 340 206 10 60.6 2594 7.6 17 259.4

--Clemosn has the top rated pass D in YPG. But MD has allowed a league low eight passing TDs. Clemson pass D is good, though.

SCORING DEFENSE G TD XP 2XP DXP FG Saf Pts Avg
Maryland 10 17 14 0 0 11 1 151 15.1
Georgia Tech 10 21 18 2 0 12 0 184 18.4
NC State 11 26 20 1 0 11 0 211 19.2
Florida State 10 29 26 0 0 10 0 230 23.0
Clemson 10 29 24 1 0 14 1 244 24.4
Wake Forest 10 32 27 1 0 10 0 251 25.1
Virginia 10 33 27 1 0 18 1 283 28.3
Duke 10 39 35 0 0 14 1 313 31.3
North Carolina 10 50 46 1 0 4 0 360 36.0

 

[mw]

Clemson's played a tougher schedule and allowed fewer yards per play (4.7 versus 4.8). Against the five common opponents, Clemson's allowed 4.97 yards per play versus 5.25 yards per play allowed by Maryland. It's pretty close, but Clemson gets the defensive edge.

 

[wox11]

JEFF dumb question - how did you put that redskin logo under your name? thanks

 

[Hoops]

Let's not get crazy over Whitehurst just yet. He has beaten Duke and NC..not exactly cream of the crop opponents. When he replaced Simmons and faced the NC St defense he did zilch.

 

[JEFF]

Wox-

Go to the top of this page and click on "profile." Then go to "change options". Then go to the bottom of the screen and click on the avatar button and that should take you to the screen of logos.

Don't think I'm forgetting anything ...

 

[gardenweasel]

against meaningful opponents

against meaningful opponents

clemson-...vs g tech-tony hollings rushed for 147 yds on 23 carries(6.3 ypc)...the game stats are skewed because qb suggs ran(sacked)7 times for -50 yards..

vs n c st-50 carries for 240 yards(4.8 ypc)

vs fla st-49 carries for 272 yards(5.5 ypc)

vs wake-62 carries for 365 yards(5.7 ypc)

i`d call that pretty brutal

maryland-...vs notre dame-45 carries for 131 yards(2.8 ypc)

vs fla st-43 carries for 169 yards(3.9 ypc)

vs nc st-36 carries for 109 yards(3.0 ypc)

vs west va-57 carries for 186 yards(3.26 ypc)



against real competition that`s a significant disparity.....i`m not saying whitehurst won`t come out and light maryland up...they may win...anything can happen...home field,maryland coming off key win,clemson coming off 2 powder puffs...alot of advantages for clemson...but,they do not defend the run very well vs REAL teams...g.l.

btw-i bought down to 3 with md...but,it`s no sure thing....maryland still has virginia and wake left...no easy ones...they have to stay focused...friedgen is a very good coach.

 

[mw]

You forgot the Georgia game.

As for Hollings, he had one long (72-yard) run, but was shut down otherwise (22-73, 3.3 ypc).

Clemson did not have a problem stopping the FSU ground game -- the stats are very deceiving, as I explained above.

State had three big plays, but they were not able to run consistently against Clemson.

The only team that ran consistently against Clemson was Wake, but the Wake stats are meaningless because of the scheme, the constant holding and chop-blocking, and the fact that Eason was worried about the damage the cut blocking could do to his injured knee.

"Brutalized" implies domination at the line of scrimmage, and that simply hasn't happened.

 

[gardenweasel]

we`ll have to disagree

we`ll have to disagree

one anomaly,o.k.....2 maybe....when you hit 3 or 4 then you start to beg credulity and start making excuses...long runs count and cost teams ballgames...one team gives up over 200 yards rushing 3 times,the other no times...you are obviously a clemson grad or fan....and that`s fine...they may win saturday.....my point is they have a weakness (in my opinion)that may create a problem for them...we can agree to disagree...and i appreciate the info and wish you well this weekend...nice to be able to intelligently disagree and exchange opinions g.l.

 

[mw]

Of course, big plays count. The point is that giving up, basically, one long run per game is different from being brutalized, which implies some sort of domination by the offense at the LOS. I wouldn't be surprised if Perry breaks a long one, but I don't see the Terps moving the ball consistently on the ground.

If you're going to beat Clemson, you're not going to do it with your offense (although the more I Look at Maryland's offensive numbers, the more impressed I am). You're going to do it with special teams. That's how Georgia, Fla St, and NC State did it, although UGA and State also played solid D.

Maryland is certyainly capable of winning this way. Maryland's returned 4 punts for TD's, and the other facets of special teams have been solid. Meanwhile, Clemson's got the same punter, return man, and coaching staff that have produced a bunch of special teams blunders this year.

 

[USC Gamecock]

One thing not to forget is that with their last two wins Clemson has gained some much needed confidence. With Whitehurst coming along (granted it was against lesser talent), I think they have a good chance of beating MD.

Clemson has some good talent, they just haven't been able to put it together this year due largely to Willie Simmons & the offense's inability to move the ball. As much as I hate to say it, I think Clemson either wins outright, or loses by 3 or less.

Good luck to all.

 

[JEFF]

Like taking money -- oops, I mean candy -- from a baby!

$$$$$

 

[buddy]

Atta' boy!!!

 

[gardenweasel]

congrats,jeff

congrats,jeff

one on the plus side....g.l. to everybody tomorrow.