PP vs. ACE - odds of winning

[KotysDad]

Ace has about a $3000 lead with 17 picks left. Petey has 30 picks left.

Assuming Ace continues to pick at a 48% clip ($100 per wager) and Petey at 47% ($500 per wager), then each has a probability of winning of:

Ace 93%
PP 7%

Approx odds would be

Ace -1350
PP +1350

 

[rrc]

KotysDad...

KotysDad...

You're giving Petey's backers too much $$ coming back, should only be about +950 or so.

 

[KotysDad]

Re: KotysDad...

Re: KotysDad...

If we give these guys the benefit of the doubt and assume they can pick as well as a fair coin, then the probabilities become

Ace 89%
PP 11%

8:1 against for PP

 

[Nick Douglas]

If I were booking this, here is the line I would set with an equivalent of 20 cent vig:

Ace: -335

Petey: +260

 

[THE KOD]

If I were booking this, here is the line I would set with an equivalent of 20 cent vig:

Ace: -335

Petey: +260

........................................................................

Maybe you would make a better book than handicapper.

Never know.

Pay up Petey your goose is cooked.


KOD

 

[THE KOD]

 

[Private Petey]

the crew is coming back, fellas..bet on it!

the crew is coming back, fellas..bet on it!

HEY KING OF DORKS YOU BETTER GET A LITTLE PIECE OF THAT UNDERDOG ACTION.

Double P

 

[THE KOD]

 

[acehistr8]

I never assumed this contest was over Nick, but Petey has been barely clipping at 46%, right now he would have to hit 63.3% over his last 30 at 500 a pop just to pull this contest even with my 17 picks left. But its not over yet and I'm counting nothing as over and done with. I will however be reserving my final picks until Petey makes some more progress in getting his picks done. So bring it on system-man.

 

[Nick Douglas]

Hey Ace, you are still heavy chalk here. You guys have to make all of those plays, right? Just don't get caught up waiting too long and force yourself to make plays on games that are not all that strong.

 

[THE KOD]

 

[THE KOD]

 

[acehistr8]

No worries Nick, thanks. If Petey manages to hit 60% over his last 30, which to know neither of us has shown the ability to do, he would end up at -3000. He cant afford to lose 5 or 6 in a row. I think I could limp home from there, but hey its not over till its over!

 

[yyz]

Is this ride ever going to stop? You two busted out of the gates with about 600 plays a day, and now it has become a "staring match", where no one ones to make a play.

The funniest thing is that one of you will be beating your chest, and neither will have a winning record!

Congarts to whichever is awarded the prize for "Tallest Midget".

 

[acehistr8]

See yyz youre wrong there. The most plays I have made in a day is maybe around a dozen or so, typically a few plays a day here and there while Petey had a whoping 108 plays in one day, along with a handful of days with 30 or more plays but doesnt make any plays for weeks on end while he waits for the the tides to be right to float his new system out there. Thats not a handicapping contest to me, but thats a whole other thread we could start...should have put a cap on max plays in one day at 10 but maybe next time. Personally I just want it to end, preferably with me the $600 victor, I dont really care what our records are.

 

[THE KOD]

Congarts to whichever is awarded the prize for "Tallest Midget".

..........................................................................

yyz

the proper term is little person or dwarf I think.
Just to be politically correct which I know you are not.


Three dwarfs decide to try to get into the
Guiness Book of World records.

They get to New York and are standing outside the building. First dwarf says I know I will try for the smallest hands in thw world. He comes out after testing and says , I made it I am in the record books.

Second dwarf goes in for smallest feet in the world. Comes out and says I made it I am in the record books.

Last dwarf is thinking and decides to try for the smallest dick in the world.

Dwarf comes out and screams I lost !

WHO THE HELL IS yyz !


KOD

 

[KotysDad]

If I were booking this, here is the line I would set with an equivalent of 20 cent vig:

Ace: -335

Petey: +260

Nick,

Are you math illiterate or something? lol You would get pounded with that line. Give me $10 to win $2.98 on Ace.

 

[Nick Douglas]

Padre del Koty,

Send the 10 bucks to Jack and you've got yourself a bet as soon as Jack emails me and confirms that the money is in his "escrow" .

 

[Nick Douglas]

Line just moved:

Ace: -345

Petey: +265

 

[THE KOD]

Line just moved:

Ace: -345

Petey: +265

........................................................

nick

Line movement.

Oh no now we got to think who the public is on. I would have to
say the public is all over PP as dumb as the public at large is.

I remember one time when you could pick NBA big dogs. Whatever happened to that.

Smart money pours in on Ace.

PP and the boys may not find Sunset Station again.


KOD