pre-christmas day ncaa bowl plays............

[gman2]

updated as of 12/25/03
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4 unit...........0-1 [-4.4 units]
3 unit...........2-1 [+2.7 units]
2 unit...........19-10 [+18.18 units]
1 unit...........33-29 [+8.6 units]
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ytd...............54-41 [+25.09 units]
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12/18/03 gmac bowl 7:30pm EST
1 unit....miami 1h (-7) (-120) over louisville
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12/22/03 tangerine bowl 5:30pm EST
PASS
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12/23/03 fort worth bowl 7:30pm EST
3 units....tcu (+10.5) over boise state
add: 1 unit tcu 2h (+6.5) (+100) over bsu
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12/24/03 las vegas bowl 7:30pm EST
1 unit....new mexico (+125) over osu
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will add to this page when i get the chance

 

[gman2]

miami 1h (-7)....redhawks have been getting out of the gate quickly the last month [averaging almost 30 1h points the last month] and louisville has been letting up a boatload of points recently [just under 36 ppg the last month]. hate to jump on the miami train this late in the season, as theyre pretty much valued out, but i think the 1h number is fair, given miami's propensity for early haymakers. i think the WORST thing for a miami,ohio opponent right now is to have the game so early in the bowl season. louisville would look more appealing if this game was the motor city bowl or a game somewhere around christmas or shortly after, because then some rust could set in and cool miami off a little bit. i know this isnt the ideal bowl game for an 11-1 team but the timing is perfect. this plays almost exactly like a bye week, as miami has played exactly two weeks ago and should be just as crisp as theyd been in late november. louisville has been off for closer to 3 weeks. not a huge fan of laying points, but nobody stopping roethlisberger right now.

 

[bej0101]

like the 1h call..gl

 

[stagger lee]

Thanks for the Redskins (1h) play gman.

Haven?t had a lean for these early bowls but you sold me on the 1h with Miami.

fwiw, like the Frogs and Lobos. Hoping that with these early faves covering that lines for the upcoming games start getting driven up.

another fwiw, leans so far (along with above) are Houston, Cal, Navy, Fresno, Ducks, Iowa, Michigan, Canes and Buckeyes.

Props on Bowling Green call as well. Didn?t get a chance to see that post before game tipped off.

Take care and enjoy the holidays

 

[Crazy888]

nice call on the 1H gman....ez $$$$$

 

[BigNick]

Gman

Loved the first half tonight also...Didn't have time to post over the last few days...Christmas is busy season at work.

I have to agree with you on the Las Vegas bowl, definatley favoring the Lobos...Little more analysis before I decide what kind of play.

I am interested in your logic as to your TCU pick. Remeber this team has trouble with teams they should put away easily. Tulane, Arizona, SMU, South Florida. Considering SMU the one like opponent, Boise dismantled SMU by 42 while TCU only outplayed them by a TD.

I will definately take a closer lookat this game this weekend, but right now I like Boise by 17. I really don't see the dog's coming into play until The Las Vegas Bowl.

 

[gman2]

tcu (+10.5)......feel very strongly about the frogs here. i think we all know what were gonna get from boise. theyre clearly the gonzaga of college football. the 'public midmajor'. they throw it around, score lots of points, and beat the piss outta teams in the wac. and truthfully, this IS a damn good football team. no doubt about that. but theres no way to convince me that this is not a HUGE game for tcu. rumors/speculation have been flying that tcu tried to duck miami,ohio in the gmac bowl. whether they did or didnt is immaterial. they got the bowl they wanted. theyre playing a pseudo-home game. there cant be any excuses from patterson and his guys now. if they were to get smacked by boise, i think this program would really be humilated, not to mention ripped apart in the media. if you look at the game statistically, everythings gonna favor boise. but the broncos havent seen the tcu defensive schemes and alignments before, and with the frogs running some unique defensive fronts- i dont see boise just moving the ball at will like some expect. when tcu has the ball, i think theyll give boise some problems with their run game. boise's numbers vs. the run look good, but wac teams rarely try to aggressively run the ball (the way tcu will). ive read all about the suspensions. ive read how the crowd is going to be less than expected. and it doesnt bother me or influence my play at all. i expect tcu to play a solid game. this team will give boise problems. throw in the fact that its been all favorites so far in the bowls and now youve got a game coming up with a team everyone loves to lay the chalk with........but tcu stays within a touchdown (and i think they do it in a game that wont have as many points as people expect). like i said, i really think this is an important game for tcu. their competitive integrity is being questioned and this is a chance for them to silence the critics who have said they played a weak schedule and dodged teams.

 

[Kdogg21]

nice write up G-man. I can see your point totally on Boise ST. They never really faced a stingy defense as in TCU. I know they will put up some points, but I think the Frogs will hang close or even win outright for that fact. Good luck!!

 

[gardenweasel]

g

g

you`re basically getting a home game here....has to help some.....

my one reservation is that tye gunn won`t be available at qb....and hassell has been inconsistent.....if tcu can hold boise down early....not let them jump out quickly,i think they have a shot....with gunn,i`d be on tcu substantially....not sure with hassell...

with you on the lobo`s....i was looking at some stats and even with stephen jackson,they only average 133 rushing ypg`s?......that surprised me....and average 320 ypg passing with big,inconsistent qb anderson(22 td`s to 23 ints)....those stats shock me ...and n.m.`s #1 receiver boyd is academically suspended for this game....

still,n.m.`s kelly is a play maker....and i think he`ll make some here...

new mexico should shut down jackson...or at least control him...he only has 2 100 yd games in his last 6...

sitting the fence on tcu....with you on n.m....

best of luck..

 

[gman2]

weasel:

new mexico is your quintessential "rushing dog" (albeit a short dog, but a dog nonetheless). lobos really impress me with their commitment to the run and they play a surprisingly physical brand of football. i dont think theyll be outclassed by the pac-10 beavers. i must admit that i was pretty impressed the way osu moved the ball on usc though in the season finale. they kind of abandoned the run and went to the air attack. anderson prone to the INT though. all in all, i think this new mexico team is a solid group that will surprise some people tomorrow

 

[vinnie]

let's nail it.

 

[JMAC]

G MAN
TCU'S STARTING CENTER SUSPENDED? STILL A 3 UNIT PLAY?
GL
JMAC

 

[gman2]

jmac:

yes, nothing has changed. 3 units on texas christian. (although center is an important position. not de-valuing the suspension). frogs will show up

 

[Nole]

Good job gman. How dare I go against you.

It won't happen again.

nole

 

[BigNick]

Gman

My general feeling that the WAC is WACk was again upheld. As I said earlier it was the fact that TCU has played down to its opponents that had me leaning towards Boise. St.....

I went with my first gut instinct, fade the WAC (conference strength is significant in bowls). It always helps to get 12 with a solid team. Nice insight!

2 unit winner....let's keep it up!

 

[Woizeee]

Gman whats your take on Minny vs Oregon. I really like Minny in this spot. They have a better overall team and better QB imo. I think the line is very low and think Minny wins by 7+. That game stands out to me... yes minny got their a$$es handed to them by Ioaw, but thats noting to be ashamed about. Minny is a solid team and i think they come up big... they nerly beat Mich, KILLLED @ NW, beat Wiskyplayed mich st to the wire...

Now Oregon did beat Mich but they won off a blocked punt and a huge offensive play. After that game they got smacked around pretty good. Wash st beat them by 40, lost at utah, got creamed to wash. They have some good wins but they are too much of a "soft" team in my opinion... I think Minny comes up with an easy win

Minn is a big play for me unless gman picks oregon LOL