The road to the Triple Crown continues today (or ends) at Pimlico and a friend of mine wants to bet me that Smarty Jones will not be the favorite
Let's see the FAVORITE won the Kentucky Derby and he doesn't think he'll be the Preakness favorite, remember it's public money that determines who the favorite is, not necessarily who the best horse is. In any event since I am a pace guy here is how I see the Preakness breaking down.
It should be obvious that the 1 horse Lion Heart will set the early pace, jockey Mike Smith has not shown the ability to rate this horse in his 6 career starts as he has been second at the first call only once in his 6 career starts and that by only half a length, today should be no different, a willing early challenge will come from the 11 horse Water Cannon, these two really should talk before the race and agree not to set some suicide fractions early in this race, but I doubt either camp is that smart, I just don't see Water Cannon with any chance to hold on though as he has never really posted a speed figure in the league with the better horse here, Sir Shackleton and Rock Hard Ten should round out the first flight of horses. If Lion Heart can run a smarter race today I think he can turn the tables on Smarty Jones who, though he is a great horse, had just about everything go his way on Derby day, a lightning fast pace, a muddy track and some solid contenders get in trouble when the gate opened, I don't see him in the winners circle at the end of the day again. Of those solid contenders who lost hope early is one I think will be a major player today, the 5 horse Song of the Sword, before the Derby he was running very compareable numbers to any of the horses in the field and if you watch the replay you will see he got in a ton of trouble early and was never heard from again, today that shouldn't be a problem as he breaks next to a miserable plodder in Little Math Man and Sir Shackleton who should clear early, leaving him with a very nice ground saving trip and when the speed duel develops up front he may be there at the end to pick up the pieces and deliver a boxcar payout.
My trifecta ticket would look like this 1,5/1,2,5,7/1,2,5,7,8,10 and would bet Lion Heart to win if I could get 3-1 or more on him, that being said I will not be betting this race as I am part of the camp that is boycotting all Magna tracks at this point, and believe me when I say I am fine if that ticket hits and pays a ton and I am on the sideline, plenty of other action today I think what Magna is doing is hurting the everyday horseplayer and the game itlself, but I will not get on my soapbox here, just wanted to post because I know a few here who don't play everyday will bet this race and wanted to give my .02's worth.
Good Luck and hope for a clean race.
Penguinfan
Let's see the FAVORITE won the Kentucky Derby and he doesn't think he'll be the Preakness favorite, remember it's public money that determines who the favorite is, not necessarily who the best horse is. In any event since I am a pace guy here is how I see the Preakness breaking down.It should be obvious that the 1 horse Lion Heart will set the early pace, jockey Mike Smith has not shown the ability to rate this horse in his 6 career starts as he has been second at the first call only once in his 6 career starts and that by only half a length, today should be no different, a willing early challenge will come from the 11 horse Water Cannon, these two really should talk before the race and agree not to set some suicide fractions early in this race, but I doubt either camp is that smart, I just don't see Water Cannon with any chance to hold on though as he has never really posted a speed figure in the league with the better horse here, Sir Shackleton and Rock Hard Ten should round out the first flight of horses. If Lion Heart can run a smarter race today I think he can turn the tables on Smarty Jones who, though he is a great horse, had just about everything go his way on Derby day, a lightning fast pace, a muddy track and some solid contenders get in trouble when the gate opened, I don't see him in the winners circle at the end of the day again. Of those solid contenders who lost hope early is one I think will be a major player today, the 5 horse Song of the Sword, before the Derby he was running very compareable numbers to any of the horses in the field and if you watch the replay you will see he got in a ton of trouble early and was never heard from again, today that shouldn't be a problem as he breaks next to a miserable plodder in Little Math Man and Sir Shackleton who should clear early, leaving him with a very nice ground saving trip and when the speed duel develops up front he may be there at the end to pick up the pieces and deliver a boxcar payout.
My trifecta ticket would look like this 1,5/1,2,5,7/1,2,5,7,8,10 and would bet Lion Heart to win if I could get 3-1 or more on him, that being said I will not be betting this race as I am part of the camp that is boycotting all Magna tracks at this point, and believe me when I say I am fine if that ticket hits and pays a ton and I am on the sideline, plenty of other action today
I think what Magna is doing is hurting the everyday horseplayer and the game itlself, but I will not get on my soapbox here, just wanted to post because I know a few here who don't play everyday will bet this race and wanted to give my .02's worth. Good Luck and hope for a clean race.
Penguinfan
