Predicted Score vs Vegas Line for Bowl Games

[c20916]

Here's the list for bowls games, and it has done quite well so far, only one loss.:
Home Vistor

Arkansas Minnesota 8.50 8.50 11.26 3.62
Boise St. Iowa St. 9.50 11.50 11.27 7.40
Boston Coll Toledo 5.00 4.00 5.79 4.07 W
Cincinnati North Texas 8.50 7.50 3.91 3.27 W
Colorado Wisconsin 8.00 7.00 8.83 3.11 L
Colorado St. TCU 5.00 5.00 3.15 4.91
Florida Michigan** 1.50 1.50 -2.92 2.84
Georgia Florida St. 2.50 3.50 7.54 9.24
GT Fresno St. 3.50 3.50 5.60 3.15
Hawaii Tulane 12.00 12.00 9.48 4.80 W
Kansas St. Arizona St. 17.00 18.00 17.50 7.66 W
Marshall Louisville 1.50 2.50 3.55 6.63 W
Maryland Tennessee 0.00 1.00 1.73 3.39
Miami (Fla.) Ohio St. 12.00 12.50 4.92 6.11
Nebraska Mississippi 4.00 5.00 2.86 1.86 W
Notre Dame NC St. 0.00 0.00 3.47 6.69
Oklahoma Washington St 6.00 6.50 4.58 4.34
OSU Southern Miss. 7.00 7.00 8.75 5.51 W
Oregon Wake Forest** 6.00 7.00 3.68 2.54
Oregon St. Pittsburgh 0.00 2.50 1.98 4.86 W
Penn St. Auburn 4.50 6.00 3.22 2.58
Texas LSU 10.00 10.00 10.30 5.71
Texas Tech Clemson 5.00 5.50 5.15 2.84 L
UCLA New Mexico 10.00 10.50 12.61 3.55 W
USC Iowa 5.50 6.00 5.57 3.56
Virginia Tech Air Force 11.50 11.50 10.53 3.53
Washington Purdue 3.50 3.50 6.62 5.60
West Va. Virginia 5.00 5.00 4.37 3.58 W

 

[c20916]

sorry I couldn't get the right format the first number is the open line, then updated line, then predicted line, then std. deviation.

 

[ND2002HORNS]

c20916,

I know djchad had a formula with 1, 2, and 3 star plays. How does the std. dev. system work? Could you place a star next to each play, it would really help. Thanks for your work!

HORNS

 

[c20916]

unfortunatley I don't remember the formula for 1 and 2 stars I know for 3 it was a diff of 6 from the prediction and acutal line and a std deviation of less than the avg, so there are no three star plays, maybe for 2 stars it was a diff of between 3 and 6? I calcuatled the avg std dev at 4.54 so I put the two stars in above with those plays. But if you just take the team that it shows as beating the spread so far you would be 9-2 I might just follow this formula for until it lets me down.

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Thanks for your work!

HORNS

 

[Unicorn]

Marshall is a winner as well. It's interesting to note that it looks like the biggest variance from line, actual line and STD is Ohio State over Miami...

 

[c20916]

You're right I forgot Marshall, so that makes the record 10-2:scared :bigun:

I already put down on the 2 star play tomorrow Wake +7, and I went against the trend I took Minny +9, the only time I plan on going against it.

Yes Ohio St is the biggest variance but it the std dev is higher than the avg, but I still like the play.

 

[ND2002HORNS]

c20916,

Are you saying for Tuesday the 31st the system shows:

Iowa St.
Pur.
TCU
G.Tech
Ten.
A.Force

I am a little unclear with the system. Thanks,

HORNS

 

[heleanth]

djchad had a 3-star as you said above, average prediction at least 6 points different than the line and the standard deviation less than the average standard deviation.

A 2-star, according to djchad, was an average prediction at least 6 points different but the standard deviation is not less than the average standard deviation.

A 1-star was an average of at least 3 and less than 6 points different than the line.

Michigan would be a 1*, WF 1*, Ohio St. 2*.

In case anyone is interested........

 

[FOSCIL]

not reallt picking up on your system.Lets take ark-minny matchup. r u saying ark should win by 3.62 points ???

 

[heleanth]

No, Foscil, I don't think so. I think the 3.62 in the Ark game is the standard deviation (in this case, relatively small, which means the average predictions were all in a fairly tight range). The average predicted margin of victory for Arkansas, according to the table at the beginning of this thread, is 11.26. The first column is the original line and the second column is the updated line. Hope this helps.

 

[h3]

foscil, he is saying ark should win by 11.26 points, right?

 

[FOSCIL]

Thanks for putting me straight

 

[c20916]

Well the system went either 19-9 or 20-8 depending on the USC game, my local had it at USC -4.5 so at that number ended up 20-8 if you got it at 6 the play would have been Iowa so 19-9 either way not too bad, I was down in New Orleans for Sugar Bowl and GA was my biggest wager in the bowls, glad I won!!!!

 

[djchad]

Hey guys

I apologize for not being around in the last month or so. Real life took over for a while. Didn't even get a chance to lay money on the bowl games

Thanks to c20916 for getting this info out to everyone. I am glad that the system did well over the bowl season. It's been said that for the past 5 years, underdogs have hit ~70% of the time, and a good portion of those have won straight up. Hopefully you made some nice change this year

I'll be back next season, posting the predicted scores vs. the vegas lines again. Til then...

 

[Unicorn]

Thanks for your work this year djchad. I will definitely be following this system from the start next year. It's a money maker and prevents me from jumping on a game too much! Have a good year...