predicted scores - oct 16

[stagger lee]

Last week, the predicted scores went 6-13 overall with the following breakdown:

*** (0-2)
** (1-2)
* (5-9)

For record keeping purposes, I will use the lines that are posted here.

Overall (29-43-3)

*** (2-8)
** (3-9)
* (24-26-3)

I missed posting Wednesday. There was a ?play? on the UConn game and it lost as a (*)

I found this week?s standard deviation to be 4.99.

Picks are in brackets.


Rating ....... Home ....... Away ....... Open ....... Curr ....... Pred ....... Std Dev

* ..... Alabama ..... (Southern Miss.) ..... 7 ..... 7 ..... 2.74 ..... 6.94
** ..... BYU ..... (Wyoming) ..... 8.5 ..... 7.5 ..... 1.42 ..... 6.24
* ..... Central Florida ..... (Akron) ..... 0 ..... 3 ..... -0.67 ..... 3.52
* ..... Clemson ..... (Utah St.) ..... 22 ..... 22.5 ..... 17.52 ..... 6
* ..... (Connecticut) ..... West Va. ..... -6 ..... -7 ..... -2.29 ..... 4.08
* ..... Florida ..... (Middle Tenn.) ..... 28 ..... 28.5 ..... 25.45 ..... 6.07
* ..... (Georgia) ..... Vanderbilt ..... 23.5 ..... 23 ..... 26.39 ..... 5.82
* ..... (Iowa) ..... Ohio St. ..... 1 ..... -1.5 ..... 2.61 ..... 2.29
* ..... (Navy) ..... Notre Dame ..... -4 ..... -6.5 ..... -1.96 ..... 6.02
* ..... Nebraska ..... (Baylor) ..... 20.5 ..... 23 ..... 17.64 ..... 5.88
*** ..... (Pittsburgh) ..... Boston College ..... -6.5 ..... -9.5 ..... -3.24 ..... 4.17
* ..... (Purdue) ..... Wisconsin ..... 7 ..... 6.5 ..... 10.18 ..... 3.95
* ..... Toledo ..... (Ohio) ..... 12.5 ..... 13.5 ..... 9.53 ..... 3.59
* ..... UNLV ..... (New Mexico) ..... 2.5 ..... 2.5 ..... -3.47 ..... 4.53


I keep wondering if this will turn around at some point as teams get deeper into the season and the people who supply the numbers get more to work with.

Scary thing for me is I have the following games circled, which makes me a little leary.

Wyoming
Iowa
Navy
Pitt (very :scared as a ***)
Ohio (I respect gman?s opinion too much to play this)
New Mexico

I hope to get some time next week to try and figure out how this entire ?system? breaks down in terms of home fave, road fave, home dog and road dog.

 

[gman2]

i dont think pitt is as ugly a team as some make them out to be. theyve certainly fallen off when compared to recent ranked panther teams, but i cant see how boston college is laying that many points. boston college on the road this season has been offensively inept (19 points against a terrible ball state team and 14 points against wake forest). this could truly be an ugly dog that cashes.

 

[Hailing Victor]

boston college on the road this season has been offensively inept (19 points against a terrible ball state team and 14 points against wake forest). this could truly be an ugly dog that cashes.

How very true.(and I hate to disagree with the incredibly competent GMAN) but :moon: BC did put up 21 on Penn State, which is something that the mighty Minnesota O couldnt do.
Very low scoring game but I don't think Pitt O can put more than a TD on BC Defense.
Both teams played UCONN in the last month BC won by 20, Pitt lost by 12. 32 point swing in less than 30 days is hard to ignore.
Plus with West Virginia still ahead they have to insure one of the 4 bowl spots for big east. this game would do that for them.
Remember BC has only allowed 49 pts this season.

BC should cover by 5

 

[treynolds]

If you faded these and went the otherway it would be working out good this season

 

[stagger lee]

treynolds

I have thought about the fading angle, especially the *** and ** plays, but the way this was set up, those are 'supposed' to be the stronger plays.

Since this is the first season that I have tracked this (DJchad was kind enough to post in the past), I don't have the past numbers. I suppose I could try a search and maybe will next week if I can find the time.

If the results continue to slide, then I will think about fading.

This is the 1st week I have put coin down on some of these plays (Iowa, Navy and Wyoming) but not strictly because of these numbers.

I think it's been said before, but this should only be used as a tool and I do remember it has performed relatively well with the bowls.