Predicted Scores vs. Vegas Lines - Oct. 31 - Nov. 2

[djchad]

[edit]
taking the early numbers down now that the real ones are up.

Season Results:
<pre>
Plays W L T %
*** 7 1 0 0.875
** 13 5 1 0.722
* 36 34 1 0.514
</pre>

 

[JBBrown2]

good luck this week

 

[mcity]

thanks for the info....good luck this weekend.

 

[heleanth]

djchad, thanks for doing the work on this. I find it very interesting and helpful.

I noticed when looking in the website where the average predictions is found that there is one prediction that is way out of whack, to the point where I am sure it is a typo.

Under the Billingsley column, the prediction is that Georgia will beat Florida by 51.xx points! This error, obviously, would cause the average prediction to be off, as well as the standard deviation. I am not quite sure of the magnitude of the difference, but thought I would call it to your attention.

 

[soulhat]

One also has Colorado defeating Oklahoma by 78. That would be fine with me, but I'm pretty sure it's a typo.

SAGE
-78

 

[djchad]

The SAGE for Colorado should be +18.49. The -78 is obviously a misprint. I re-ran the numbers for that game and came up with an avg. of 17.33 and a std. dev. of 4.54. The new numbers are significantly different and make this game a play.

For UF/UGA game, I re-ran the numbers taking out the 51.17. I came up with an avg. of 11.17 and a std. dev. of 4.85. Obviously taking out the 51.17 makes a huge difference in the std dev. So I am using these new numbers as well.


Here are the numbers for Oct. 31 - Nov 2:

avg std dev: 4.67
31 of 35 services reporting


<pre>
Favors Line Avg Pred Diff Std Dev Play
Air Force 1.00 -2.60 3.60 4.70 *
Alabama -22.00 -27.01 5.01 5.74 *
Arkansas -24.00 -28.29 4.29 6.65 *
Ball St 4.00 1.13 2.87 5.36 -
Baylor 30.50 27.65 2.85 6.61 -
BG -18.00 -21.27 3.27 5.50 *
Georgia -2.00 -11.17 9.17 4.85 **
Iowa -8.50 -13.23 4.73 2.80 *
Iowa State -10.00 -13.77 3.77 3.54 *
Kentucky -4.00 -9.56 5.56 4.00 *
Miami -38.50 -43.19 4.69 8.35 *
NC State -10.00 -15.01 5.01 4.58 *
Nevada -6.50 -9.86 3.36 3.39 *
New Mex St -6.00 -10.79 4.79 6.88 *
Notre Dame -10.00 -19.06 9.06 6.43 **
Ohio St -13.50 -16.72 3.22 4.15 *
Oklahoma -12.50 -17.33 4.83 4.54 *
Penn State -14.00 -17.02 3.02 4.05 *
SJ State 25.00 16.07 8.93 5.80 **
South Car 1.50 -2.62 4.12 4.10 *
Texas -3.50 -8.97 5.47 4.72 *
Tulsa 10.00 4.73 5.27 4.12 *
UCLA 0.00 -3.99 3.99 2.08 *
Wake For 10.00 7.12 2.88 3.18 -



</pre>


No 3-star plays this week, although the UGA play comes very close.

GLTA this weekend,
Chad

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

GL, mang. Nice effort.

 

[Joe De]

thx ...this week it shows my best pick of the week.......BALL STATE.......good luck to all

 

[heleanth]

Thanks for going through the trouble to post this information for us, djchad. Much appreciated.

Mike

 

[sdf]

thanks for your effort in doing this.

if the lines fluctuated one point in either direction, how do you think that would reflect in your results? some of your "close plays" might actually be plays at one book but not another.

some books have NDame -10, but what if the line is -9? would that push it to a 3*?

or would it not be worth it to go thru all that extra work at this point? it's just that you use a LINE but lines fluctuate by 1-2 points from book to book on some games......

thanks again and good luck

 

[RAZ]

Appreciate the work and info as well, good luck


Raz

 

[GaDawg12]

sdf

sdf

the one point line difference wouldnt affect it much if at all because the difference in the line and avg prediction is already 9 which is over the 6 that ur lookin for. the difference to make it a 3 star would be if the std dev was below the avg of 4.67 which it is at 6.43 so i dont believe a point on the line would lower it enough if at all to make that difference

Hope this helps

 

[mush]

Bump

 

[djchad]

GaDawg12 is absolutely correct. And you should always compare the lines I list with what you have, as I use the lines at my book.

 

[djchad]

Well, another disappointing week for the numbers. After a good start to the season, they have fallen back to earth the past two weeks.

Final numbers:

<pre>

Favors Line Avg Pred Diff Std Dev Play Result Score
Air Force 1.00 -2.60 3.60 4.70 * L 12-31
Alabama -22.00 -27.01 5.01 5.74 * T 30-8
Arkansas -24.00 -28.29 4.29 6.65 * L 23-0
Ball St 4.00 1.13 2.87 5.36 - - -
Baylor 30.50 27.65 2.85 6.61 - - -
BG -18.00 -21.27 3.27 5.50 * W 45-14
Georgia -2.00 -11.17 9.17 4.85 ** L 13-20
Iowa -8.50 -13.23 4.73 2.80 * W 20-3
Iowa State -10.00 -13.77 3.77 3.54 * L 42-35
Kentucky -4.00 -9.56 5.56 4.00 * W 45-24
Miami -38.50 -43.19 4.69 8.35 * L 42-17
NC State -10.00 -15.01 5.01 4.58 * L 17-24
Nevada -6.50 -9.86 3.36 3.39 * W 24-6
New Mex St -6.00 -10.79 4.79 6.88 * L 24-21
Notre Dame -10.00 -19.06 9.06 6.43 ** L 7-14
Ohio St -13.50 -16.72 3.22 4.15 * W 34-3
Oklahoma -12.50 -17.33 4.83 4.54 * W 27-11
Penn State -14.00 -17.02 3.02 4.05 * L 18-7
SJ State 25.00 16.07 8.93 5.80 ** W 31-40
South Car 1.50 -2.62 4.12 4.10 * L 10-18
Texas -3.50 -8.97 5.47 4.72 * L 27-24
Tulsa 10.00 4.73 5.27 4.12 * L 18-33
UCLA 0.00 -3.99 3.99 2.08 * W 34-24
Wake For 10.00 7.12 2.88 3.18 - - -


Week W L T %
*** 0 0 0 0
** 1 2 0 0.333
* 7 10 1 0.412


Season W L T %
*** 7 1 0 0.875
** 14 7 1 0.667
* 43 44 2 0.494



</pre>


Next week's numbers coming up shortly...

 

[Joe De]

i bet you see alot of 3 stars this week on teams laying heavy points....this is the third week of strange numbers...got one,,, but was snake bit 2 weeks ago with it...poor road team but i'm a sucker and will play it....UNLV+10....when i say strange the numbers come up with that covering machine......Arkansas St.+4'...lets wee if your stats come up with these..gl