Predicted Scores vs. Vegas Lines

[djchad]

I've always used predicted scores as one of my tools in capping games. Never as a crutch, and never as the sole reason for playing a game. I feel that predicted scores (or rather, predicted margin of victory) can be useful in deciding which side to play.

Starting this past week, I have begun tracking the results of predicted scores vs. the line. The predicted scores data comes from another website (msg me for URL), and I don't claim it as my own. Predicted scores can be flaky and unreliable, but as I said - this is just one tool (and not a single reference) to help in capping games.

My criterion is this:

3 star play = The predicted score is at least 6.00 above the posted line AND the std. deviation of the predicted scores is less than the avg of the std dev's.

2 star play = The predicted score is at least 6.00 above the posted line AND the std. deviation of the predicted scores is greater than the avg of the std dev's.

1 star play = The predicted score is at least 3.00 above the posted line but less than 6.00 above the posted line.


In simple terms, if the predicted margin of victory is much higher than the posted line, in this case 6 pts, then you should play the game (2 star). Also, if the predicted margin of victory is over 6 pts, and most of the predictions are fairly close (a low std. deviation), then you should really play the game (3 star).

Here is the sheet from this past weekend (Oct 3-5):

<pre>

Favors Line AvgPred Diff Std Dev Play Result
Air Force -23 -31.32 8.32 7.84 ** W
Arizona St -8.5 -13.68 5.18 6.55 * L
Arkansas +11 +2.28 8.72 6.27 *** W
Ark St +20.5 +7.17 13.33 12.88 ** W
B. Green -24 -30.85 6.85 8.17 ** W
California +12 +7.13 4.87 4.54 * W
Clemson +14.5 +9.81 4.69 3.36 * L
East Car. -20 -23.9 3.90 8.76 * W
East. Mich +11 +3.67 7.33 7.67 ** W
Iowa -8.5 -12.03 3.53 4.84 * L
Kansas +4 -1.11 5.11 5.9 * W
Kansas St -3.5 -9.33 5.83 8.62 * L
Minnesota -3.5 -10.31 6.81 5.78 *** W
Missouri +13.5 +10.24 3.26 4.93 * W
Notre Dame -8 -15.94 7.94 6.08 *** W
Oregon St -4 -7.03 3.03 7.21 * L
SJ St -6.5 -12.16 5.66 6.77 * W
South Car. -4 -10.85 6.85 5.34 *** W
TCU -11 -14.9 3.90 3.81 * W
USC -3 -7.98 4.98 7.75 * L

</pre>

This week's results:
3 star = 4-0-0, 100%
2 star = 4-0-0, 100%
1 star = 6-6-0, 50%


Now, there are probably a number of flaws in this method. I am not claiming that I have found a silver bullet. I am just curious as to how good of a measure the predicted margin of victory is. I'll continue to track these results each week in this post.

Chad

 

[djchad]

For the week of October 12:

<pre>

Favors Line Avg Pred Diff Std Dev Play
Air Force -4.50 -15.85 11.35 6.30 **
Arizona 13.50 7.53 5.97 3.79 *
BG -15.50 -20.16 4.66 8.69 *
Colo St -25.50 -29.15 3.65 5.56 *
EMU 9.50 3.64 5.86 8.41 *
Fresno St -23.00 -26.26 3.26 4.05 *
Georgia -3.50 -10.91 7.41 7.18 **
Idaho -11.50 -15.92 4.42 9.26 *
Indiana 13.00 10.66 2.34 3.82 -
Iowa -6.00 -13.71 7.71 5.00 ***
Iowa St -6.50 -8.71 2.21 3.59 -
Kansas St -14.50 -18.86 4.36 5.27 *
LSU 8.50 2.88 5.62 7.72 *
Miss St -10.50 -7.40 3.10 6.25 *
NC St -6.50 -11.10 4.60 5.99 *
ND -7.50 -13.55 6.05 5.87 ***
Missouri 8.50 5.78 2.72 5.87 -
Oklahoma 3.00 -0.98 3.98 5.46 *
Purdue -3.50 -7.65 4.15 4.03 *
TCU -21.00 -29.13 8.13 8.61 **
UNLV -7.00 -3.73 3.27 4.16 *
USF 3.00 -1.74 4.74 5.88 *
Utah -10.50 -15.95 5.45 4.39 *
Vandy -5.50 -10.81 5.31 8.28 *
Virginia 5.00 0.72 4.28 3.30 *
VT -8.50 -14.46 5.96 7.44 *
Wash St -7.50 -12.96 5.46 7.33 *
WMU 1.50 -2.55 4.05 4.23 *
WV -13.00 -16.57 3.57 8.67 *
</pre>

<br>

Very few big plays this week - only two 3-star and three 2-star games.

Arizona is 0.03 away from being a 3-star, VT 0.04 away from being 2-star, and Utah 0.55 away from a 3-star.

Also, there show to be three underdog S/U wins - Oklahoma, South Florida, and Western Michigan.

We'll see how things play out this week.

 

[Joe De]

by chance would the predicted scores come from Harmons Forecast?

 

[djchad]

No - they come from a page that averages 35 different predictions. Although Harmon's is one of the 35.

 

[superbook]

This is good stuff, looking forward to seeing how it does.

- Jon

 

[Joe De]

thx...pickens look slim this week..I noticed that Ark St.just blew'em off the charts...my numbers showed the same last week...interesting material..thx again lookforward to seeing more

 

[bej0101]

looks like great info..please keep posting and lets hope for the best

 

[bej0101]

by the way what is the web site or url?

 

[bej0101]

joe de, did you get down on ark st last week? i couldn't get a line when i checked with my services!!

 

[Joe De]

that was my best play last week...i hit hard all week...it was a don't laugh pick that was posted...this gamewas the strongest number i've ever seen in 4 years on using my numbers

 

[THE KOD]

Re: Predicted Scores vs. Vegas Lines (updated 10/09)

Re: Predicted Scores vs. Vegas Lines (updated 10/09)

I've always used predicted scores as one of my tools in capping games. Never as a crutch, and never as the sole reason for playing a game. I feel that predicted scores (or rather, predicted margin of victory) can be useful in deciding which side to play.

Predicted scores can be flaky and unreliable, but as I said - this is just one tool (and not a single reference) to help in capping games.

Now, there are probably a number of flaws in this method. I am not claiming that I have found a silver bullet. I am just curious as to how good of a measure the predicted margin of victory is. I'll continue to track these results each week in this post.

Good information in the quest for a edge in sports wagering. Keep up the good work !


Scott-Atlanta

 

[PARROTTHEAD]

Good stuff!!!!!!!!!!!!

Good Luck!!!!!!

 

[gardenweasel]

keep an eye out for

keep an eye out for

extenuating circumstances....new mexico`s qb has a broken arm and their top rb is out with a knee....may also be several suspensions.....g.l.

 

[FED]

thank you for the info, and keep it up!

 

[kgar2121]

i have a question

i have a question

regarding this weeks play....why would the georgia game not be a 3 star play? it seems that the std dev is less than the pred score difference, and the difference is above 6....just a question...just trying to get a handle on this and the way the formulas work out...thanks in advance

 

[magking]

Looks like you are on to something. thanks for the work.!!!

 

[djchad]

Re: i have a question

Re: i have a question

regarding this weeks play....why would the georgia game not be a 3 star play? it seems that the std dev is less than the pred score difference, and the difference is above 6....just a question...just trying to get a handle on this and the way the formulas work out...thanks in advance

For the 3 star play, the std. dev. of the game has to be below the average of all the standard deviations, which will vary from week to week. So basically, I get the average of each std. dev. on each game predicted - whether or not that game receives a star. This week, the avg. std. dev was 6.01. From now on I will post what this value is.

Also, I noticed I screwed up on one of the games. Up above, the play on Miss St. should be a play on Troy St. Brain fart there.

With 2 games left so far (AF and Fresno), the 3-star plays went 2-0, 2-star plays went 1-1, and 1-star plays 10-10. Another 50% week for the 1-stars. But, 6-0 over past two weeks for 3-stars, so maybe I am on to something on those games. I'll post the final results tomorrow.

 

[Joe De]

Thank you for the data you posted..I followed these this weekend and i think you've got a something to work with.
I Played Air Force, Georgia Iowa,N.D LSU, and Tcu which went 5-1.
I used your Difference scale, (not the standard deviation) of 5.5 to 6.00 or more ......Many of these predicted scores matched up with my system..The two games that stands out are Indiana and LSU.
The system helps reduce number of games played.
Look forward to future posts.

 

[Scarecrow]

djchad,

Excellent results!!! Played Air Force and Notre Dame myself amongst others but 4-1 on the 2 and 3 star plays is outstanding, especially on the heels of last weeks winners. Please do continue your reports for the board. Thanks for your contribution.

 

[boilermaker]

Very interesting, Keep up the good work djchad.