Predicted Scores vs. Vegas Lines

[Tduji]

another question please....

another question please....

Just wondering also if we can maybe look for so-called "upside down" lines ?

For example, if the team :
1) is an underdog at the line,
2) the average predicted score is a minus number (underdog should be favored)
3) and the standard deviation is not too far off the avg.

using this method 2 of the 3 teams in this situation would have resulted in a win. (albeit 1 star games)

To wit: Oct 12th games (avg std dev 6.01)

Team Line Avg Predicted Difference Std deviation

OU +3 -0.98 3.98 5.46
USF +3 -1.74 4.74 5.88
WMU +1.5 -2.5 4.0 4.28

OU and USF won outright whereas WMU lost by 4.


Does this hold any water you think ?

 

[djchad]

Tduji, that would definitely be a play on Wake Forest.

And this may help on that situation where the wrong team is favored. For example, this week, four teams are this way:

Cal, Line +3.5, Pred -1.99
ND, Line +3, Pred -0.30
UConn, Line +1, Pred -2.87
USF, Line +1, Pred -7.57

 

[howdy]

Djchad,
Thanks for taking the time to give us that explanation!

 

[gardenweasel]

i think it`s excellent info

i think it`s excellent info

kudos to dj....nice work....if you check missou`s tout sheet list,usc is going dead against the top play of many(washington).....so cal is a lousy favorite and washington is an excellent dog....i personally think washington is a tad overrated....we`ll see....g.l and thanks

 

[stackdaddy]

Another successful day for the two and three stars. Congrats!!!
:toast:

 

[heleanth]

5-1-1 if you got Houston at 14. Nice. Look forward to next week's plays. Thanks, Djchad!

 

[Bob Stoops]

If anyone goes to the website with the link that Jack posetd, I wish you would notice the area that allows you to click for donations. I have been using this website and about ten of the different formulas as handicapping tools. Since I found this website, I have had tremendous success, especially in the second half of the season.

I recently sent a $20 donation through paypal. If you are using this website for the first time and you won, please think about making a donation. This is a wonderful tool and the administrator is running out of bandwidth due to a tremendous increase of traffic.

If you use this site, you can be a winner. But, you must trust the picks and not let your personal feelings get in the way.

 

[gardenweasel]

incredible

incredible

well done

 

[djchad]

Thank you all for thanking me for posting this info. But really, the guy that runs the site deserves credit for gathering the prediction numbers and doing the math. As Stoops says, the front page of the site has a donation link

Here are the updated results for Oct. 17-19

<pre>
Favors Line Avg Pred Diff Std Dev Play Result Score
Ark St 9.00 4.28 4.72 9.30 * W 10-13
BC -28.50 -31.21 2.71 6.52 - - 46-21
BG -15.50 -21.23 5.73 6.18 * L 48-45
Cal 3.50 -1.99 5.49 3.63 * W 17-12
Colo St 0.00 -2.97 2.97 7.24 - - 28-20
East Mich 15.00 12.00 3.00 6.12 * L 17-42
Georgia -25.50 -34.07 8.57 8.98 ** W 48-17
Houston -14.00 -21.88 7.88 9.69 ** T 56-42
Kansas St -1.50 -4.55 3.05 3.89 * L 14-17
LA-Lafay 9.50 3.52 5.98 7.32 * L 35-48
Marshall -19.00 -23.16 4.16 5.63 * L 24-7
Memphis 0.00 -3.89 3.89 5.27 * L 17-29
Michigan -3.50 -7.97 4.47 4.38 * L 23-21
Minnesota 3.50 0.01 3.49 3.14 * W 28-7
NC State -24.50 -29.34 4.84 5.45 * L 24-22
ND 3.00 -0.15 3.15 4.15 * W 21-14
New Mex -3.00 -6.61 3.61 3.93 * L 44-45
New Mex St -17.00 -21.94 4.94 4.68 * L 34-21
North. Ill -9.50 -12.60 3.10 3.20 * W 49-0
Ohio 11.50 8.47 3.03 4.06 * W 50-0
Ohio St -7.00 -9.96 2.96 4.51 - - -
SJ State 5.00 0.93 4.07 4.12 * L 24-52
Texas Tech -6.50 -10.40 3.90 3.81 * W 52-38
Toledo 4.50 0.62 3.88 4.62 * W 27-24
Tulane -4.50 -8.20 3.70 14.19 * W 35-14
UConn 1.00 -2.87 3.87 5.73 * L 24-38
USC -7.50 -14.91 7.41 4.18 *** W 41-21
USF 1.00 -7.57 8.57 5.71 ** W 46-30
UTEP 13.00 9.18 3.82 7.11 * W 38-35
Virginia -4.50 -12.04 7.54 5.91 ** W 37-27
VT -41.50 -49.83 8.33 11.75 ** L 35-14
Wake 8.50 5.20 3.30 2.93 * W 23-31
West Va -7.00 -13.02 6.02 7.68 ** W 34-7
</pre>

<br><br>


This Week:
3-star = 1-0-0, 100%
2-star = 4-1-1, 80%
1-star = 11-12-0, 47.8%

This Season:
3-star = 7-0-0, 100%
2-star = 10-2-1, 83.3%
1-star = 28-27-1, 50.9%


A few observations on this week:

- The system picked 4 underdogs as outright winners. Cal, ND, USF, and UConn. Cal, ND, and USF all won.

- The VT game was a 2-star game, but I believe in playing the 40+ dogs, so a loss here is not surprising at all.

- Notre Dame is 7-0 against the spread this year

- And finally, the best play this week was the 3-star USC pick. I had very little confidence in laying cash on this game. Add to that, all the touts were all over Washington. At the last minute, I took USC. Cha-ching!

 

[stackdaddy]

Thanks for the heads up, I just donated.

 

[djchad]

Here are the early plays for Oct. 24-26. This is with 24 of 35 prediction services reporting, and an average std dev of 4.96. These numbers will change, and I will update them on Wednesday. Good luck to all :shade:


<pre>

Favors Line Avg Pred Diff Std Dev Play
Air Force -15.50 -26.44 10.94 5.54 **
Alabama 2.50 -2.40 4.90 5.85 *
Arizona St -3.00 -8.07 5.07 4.64 *
Bowl Grn -21.00 -24.48 3.48 5.08 *
Buffalo 7.00 3.35 3.65 4.02 *
Cal 5.50 0.55 4.95 6.13 *
Cent Mich 20.50 15.31 5.19 4.47 *
Colo St -12.00 -16.82 4.82 4.95 *
Idaho 4.50 0.37 4.13 5.16 *
Indiana 8.50 1.76 6.74 4.86 ***
Iowa St 12.50 7.52 4.98 6.50 *
LSU -3.00 -12.39 9.39 5.72 **
Nevada 4.50 -2.32 6.82 5.36 **
New Mexico 6.00 1.67 4.33 5.39 *
Nort Ill -2.00 -4.38 2.38 5.41 -
Notre Dame 10.00 1.58 8.42 7.48 **
Ohio St -4.50 -9.98 5.48 5.67 *
SJ St 16.00 13.14 2.86 5.95 -
Tulane -15.50 -18.07 2.57 4.77 -
UAB -10.00 -12.99 2.99 16.59 -
UConn 8.00 2.09 5.91 4.42 *
UTEP 2.50 -0.56 3.06 8.23 *
Virginia 5.50 -0.81 6.31 5.71 **
Va Tech -28.50 -33.89 5.39 7.02 *
Wash St -10.50 -16.09 5.59 5.60 *

</pre>

 

[Joe De]

thx..working on some goodies this will help

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Way to go, DJChad. Nice effort.

 

[MasterTX]

When you calculate the avg std dev, do you use only the games with a 3.0 difference, ir every game on the board?

 

[Ga Dawg]

Is this web site still open or do the predictions come out later in the week?

 

[soulhat]

djchad,

why no UCONN? i've got them being a 3* play.

3* Indiana and UCONN
2* Air Force, Nevada, Virginia, Notre Dame, and LSU

Using data with 33 of 36 reporting so I don't expect the numbers to change significantly.

 

[gsp]

dj, great work. Would you mind starting a new thread for this week. This one is going to wind up being 3 or 4 pages by the end of the week and become very hard to keep up with. Good luck.

 

[djchad]

MasterTX
I calculate the average standard deviation on every single game predicted, including the games that I have not listed as plays.

Ga Dawg
The site, click here , is always open. Usually by Wednesday, all the predictions are in. Right now, only 3 are missing.

soulhat
UConn is, as of right now, 0.13 points shy of being a 3-star pick. Also, there are only 35 predictions on the page. In the second group, the listing on the far right is the "system average", which is the average prediction It threw me off the first time I saw the page.

And finally, I will be putting the updated numbers in a new thread. A new one for each week. Anything past 2 pages is too much.

 

[ussrv]

bump