PRIME EXAMPLE.....ST. LOUIS

[cbrown334]

JUST GOT SWEPT BY THE WORST TEAM IN BASEBALL, SOMEBODY NAME ME ANOTHER SPORT WHERE THAT HAPPENS:142smilie

St Louis Cardinals -245 TUE LOSER:sadwave:
St Louis Cardinals -180 WED LOSER:sadwave:
St Louis Cardinals -WHATEVA THUR LOSER:sadwave:

 

[greggraffin]

-300 today

 

[tig3rs]

JUST GOT SWEPT BY THE WORST TEAM IN BASEBALL, SOMEBODY NAME ME ANOTHER SPORT WHERE THAT HAPPENS:142smilie

St Louis Cardinals -245 TUE LOSER:sadwave:
St Louis Cardinals -180 WED LOSER:sadwave:
St Louis Cardinals -WHATEVA THUR LOSER:sadwave:

what's this a prime example of?

 

[shawn555]

what's this a prime example of?

How playing huge favorites is stupid. :shrug:

Today they were around -300 too.

I like to look it at if you played houston all three you were up over 7 units playing them straight.

No idea why you would play a favorite of 245 + 300 in baseball.

 

[tig3rs]

thanks, shawn. i was asking cbrown, the author of the post.
wondering if he was saying something about houston or st louis or betting baseball in general.
i had houston circled on my sheet orginally just cause of the price but they're bad, but apparently holliday is just off right now and the astros bats are on. wish i'd have played it. but also don't know anyone who'd have taken the astros in all 3 games.
pretty wild though. cubs fans lovin it. and reds fans!

 

[cbrown334]

what's this a prime example of?

Yea it was just in reference to how hard it is to bet bases. I just starting to understand this sport a little. It blows my mind how these teams are on one week then off the next. I'm gunna watch and keep track for a month or so then maybe try and bet it some more. I might start tracking some of the shittyer teams and when they lose a couple in a row start betting them till they win:shrug:

 

[tig3rs]

i would have to disagree with your using of this example as an example that proves it's hard to bet baseball. this is an example of a huge line, where experienced players know the value's on the dog if at all, and it should be played as such or not at all.

2430 games to bet in a season, most days 15 a day. it's much easier to find value if you know where to look. stick with it man. find someone who's plays you are comfortable with and has proven to win and you might figure out their strategies and tendencies.
it's like betting small conference college basketball, there's so many games, you have to be able to find value in some lines. but it does take work.
that houston/cards series, i cashed on the under on tuesday and the houston 5inn on wednesday, didn't touch it today, thought it was a stay away.

good luck.

 

[Keyser Soze]

That's what happens when people just look at overall records, or pitchers. Teams get hot and cold all season long........Cards have not been scoring runs, and when you don't score runs it makes it difficult to win no matter who you are playing............Goes back to the old "due theory" that people like to invoke. A specific team can't lose 6 in a row, or win 7 in a row, but it happens all of the time. That's why to be successful you have to bet with the streak or not at all. You can only lose once betting a streak.

 

[yyz]

That game was inflated by about 70 cents anyway. Just based on it being Carpenter trying to avoid the sweep at home.

These series sweeps happen all year long. I'm sure some guys lost their asses on that series, just trying to pick up one win.


I look at the last game on the board tonight:

Washington @ Colorado

Why the hell are the Rockies -185? Is Chacin that much of a stud? I'm guessing no.....he's not. I know we're talking about the Nats, but the fact remains that the Nats are a winning ball club right now, and they still get no respect. The Rockies are losing, and everyone is still picturing them as potential "world beaters". This equals a bad line, IMO.

I still have the Rocks favored because Lannan is throwing for Washington, but we know that the starter should not be the main factor in these type of games.

I would make them about -120-125, so getting +165 is a steal in my book.

I've talked myself into adding this game to my sheet for the day!

 

[Livin'tillthEnd]

I haven't been doing this forever

I haven't been doing this forever

and in no way have I proved a whole lot this year, but I think one of the biggest things to remember is that even the BEST team in the entire league will lose 60 games. A few have already commented on finding those favorable matchups or like YYZ pointed out last night with Wash and Col, value is huge!! Chacin has no experience and Washington has been on fire. Yes, Lannan was coming off an injury but he has way more experience than the rook. Big value last night.

Baseball seems to me to be the least affected by umps/refs too. Maybe its just me looking through rose-colored glasses, but I feel I have abetter shot making money fairly in bases than the other big 2. I like that because as I think we have seen before in NBA, and NFL, the refs can have a huge influence, if you know what I mean, on the outcome. I'm not saying every one of those games are rigged, but during certain moments there are some crazy coincidences.

gl

 

[devil dave]

bottom line is, stay away from the chalk. i see guys with good records, but they're laying 170-200 a play. where as a guy like titus bets mainly dogs (large one) and when he takes the chalk he lay 1' runs to minimize his risk. money is in the dogs.

 

[cbrown334]

GREAT INFO GUYS!! IM GUNNA KEEP STUDYING THIS SPORT AND WATCH SOME OF THE BETTER CAPPERS ON HERE TO TRY AND FIGURE THIS SHIT OUT:mj06:

 

[bryanz]

if you bet BB everyday , there is no reason to bet anything over -120.... due the math... to hard to make up big chalk losses....

 

[giambi]

I heard nick bogdonovich(somethin like that) say a couple years ago on the radio say you really gotta hate yourself to bet baseball because it is everyday