Profitcity Thursday
- Thread starter Randercity
- Start date
STL UN 8.5 -120
Reasoning listed under SUPER PARLAY thread, but with big sticks out, two UNDER PITCHERS and an UMP who tends to go UNDER in this type of game... I'm on it!
Reasoning listed under SUPER PARLAY thread, but with big sticks out, two UNDER PITCHERS and an UMP who tends to go UNDER in this type of game... I'm on it!
well, that didn't take long to wipe out my STL UNDER play.... sheesh, what a joke! 10-0 in the third. WHO NEEDS DREW and BIG MAC?!?!
Cincy at HOUSTON
HOUSTON should easily take care of the REDS here as OSWALT has been stellar all year. He's 7-2 at home, with a 2.80 ERA and his games have gone 3-6 O/U. REYES has been hit hard ever since coming up, and being a lefty facing the STROS, I can't see him doing much better. I truly believe this is a very one-sided game, and am doing something a bit unusual. Playing the RUNLINE on HOU and going UNDER. T. Barrett is behind the plate and his O/U record is 11-15, but when the line is 10 or 10.5 he is 0-6 O/U. OSWALT should limit the REDS to 2-3 at most, that means STROS can still score six or seven and keep this game under the high number. HOU has scored six the past two days, and haven't scored more than that in their past 7 games. Another 6-2, 6-3 final looks good to me.
HOU -1.5 -130
UNDER 10 -115
Cincy at HOUSTON
HOUSTON should easily take care of the REDS here as OSWALT has been stellar all year. He's 7-2 at home, with a 2.80 ERA and his games have gone 3-6 O/U. REYES has been hit hard ever since coming up, and being a lefty facing the STROS, I can't see him doing much better. I truly believe this is a very one-sided game, and am doing something a bit unusual. Playing the RUNLINE on HOU and going UNDER. T. Barrett is behind the plate and his O/U record is 11-15, but when the line is 10 or 10.5 he is 0-6 O/U. OSWALT should limit the REDS to 2-3 at most, that means STROS can still score six or seven and keep this game under the high number. HOU has scored six the past two days, and haven't scored more than that in their past 7 games. Another 6-2, 6-3 final looks good to me.
HOU -1.5 -130
UNDER 10 -115
Boston at CLELELAND
I see only one way to play this game... and that's UNDER. After yesterday's 2-1 game in which there were 3 HR's to account for all the runs, there are some very strong trends in favor of another low scoring game. COLON is 5-10 O/U at home, NOMO is 6-12 O/U at nite this season, CLE is 2-8 UNDER in last ten, UNDER is 7-3 in COLON's last ten starts, AND, we have an UNDER UMP in RANDAZZO behind the plate. He's 9-15 O/U for the year, and 4-8 when the line is 9 or 9.5. In his last 10 games, this UMP is 8-1-1 to the UNDER. Overall, NOMO's games are 9-16 O/U, and COLON's 10-17, so we have a nice set-up to go UNDER again tonite.
UNDER 9.5
Oakland at BALTIMORE
Again, we have another nice set-up for an UNDER here. ZITO is 10-16 O/U this season, while JOHNSON is 11-14. THE key here is JOHNSON's starts at home have come in UNDER 9 of 12 times. ZITO's last FOUR games have all gone UNDER as he has a miniscule 1.17 ERA over that stretch. JOHNSON is 9-4 at home with a fine 2.38 ERA, so he obviously likes the home cooking. The O's weren't able to hit MULDER two days ago, so I can't see them getting to ZITO either. The O's however are 14-9 in Game 3 after a loss, and did beat ZITO 7-0 back in June, so I can't play the A's. HP UMP B. Welke tends to favor HOME DOGS also as he is 7-2 with teams in that role. His O/U line is 10-14, with an odd 5-2 record when the line is 9. He's 1-1 at 8.5. With his tendency to favor the home squad, HT is 16-5 with him behind the mask, I think it's worth a shot on BOTH BALT and UNDER. I just feel his "home" field advantage will take some steam outta the A's BIG BATS... In two games this year with WELKE HP UMP and JOHNSON pitching, BALT is 2-0, but both games went OVER. In his last 6 Games UMPed, HOME TEAM has won them all, and the UNDER is 4-2, 7-3 in his last 10.
BALT +175
UNDER 8.5
I see only one way to play this game... and that's UNDER. After yesterday's 2-1 game in which there were 3 HR's to account for all the runs, there are some very strong trends in favor of another low scoring game. COLON is 5-10 O/U at home, NOMO is 6-12 O/U at nite this season, CLE is 2-8 UNDER in last ten, UNDER is 7-3 in COLON's last ten starts, AND, we have an UNDER UMP in RANDAZZO behind the plate. He's 9-15 O/U for the year, and 4-8 when the line is 9 or 9.5. In his last 10 games, this UMP is 8-1-1 to the UNDER. Overall, NOMO's games are 9-16 O/U, and COLON's 10-17, so we have a nice set-up to go UNDER again tonite.
UNDER 9.5
Oakland at BALTIMORE
Again, we have another nice set-up for an UNDER here. ZITO is 10-16 O/U this season, while JOHNSON is 11-14. THE key here is JOHNSON's starts at home have come in UNDER 9 of 12 times. ZITO's last FOUR games have all gone UNDER as he has a miniscule 1.17 ERA over that stretch. JOHNSON is 9-4 at home with a fine 2.38 ERA, so he obviously likes the home cooking. The O's weren't able to hit MULDER two days ago, so I can't see them getting to ZITO either. The O's however are 14-9 in Game 3 after a loss, and did beat ZITO 7-0 back in June, so I can't play the A's. HP UMP B. Welke tends to favor HOME DOGS also as he is 7-2 with teams in that role. His O/U line is 10-14, with an odd 5-2 record when the line is 9. He's 1-1 at 8.5. With his tendency to favor the home squad, HT is 16-5 with him behind the mask, I think it's worth a shot on BOTH BALT and UNDER. I just feel his "home" field advantage will take some steam outta the A's BIG BATS... In two games this year with WELKE HP UMP and JOHNSON pitching, BALT is 2-0, but both games went OVER. In his last 6 Games UMPed, HOME TEAM has won them all, and the UNDER is 4-2, 7-3 in his last 10.
BALT +175
UNDER 8.5
Chicago at DETROIT
WHITE SOX have won 10 straight in this series, are 7-1 in their last 8 road games, and BUEHRLE is 7-2 in his road starts. The lefty is also 3-1 vs DET this year with a 3.51 ERA, but has thrown shutouts vs them his last two games. CWS are hitting, the TIGERS are not, and to think they can turn it around on a guy who's limited them to 3 runs the past THREE games, well, I don't see it. ONLY one way to go in this game, and that is CHICAGO!
CWS -160
WHITE SOX have won 10 straight in this series, are 7-1 in their last 8 road games, and BUEHRLE is 7-2 in his road starts. The lefty is also 3-1 vs DET this year with a 3.51 ERA, but has thrown shutouts vs them his last two games. CWS are hitting, the TIGERS are not, and to think they can turn it around on a guy who's limited them to 3 runs the past THREE games, well, I don't see it. ONLY one way to go in this game, and that is CHICAGO!
CWS -160
Phila at NY METS
I think there are better games to look at than this one, though I think PHILA will win this game. The OVER has been coming in during this series as the METS have finally started to hit. The HP UMP Fletcher is 15-9 to the OVER, and averages over 11 rpg. With a line of 8.5 Under, I think you have to look at going OVER in this one. COGGIN has pitched well, but his road ERA approaches 5 as does TRASCHEL's at home. With METS hitting and PHILLIES needing a bust out game, OVER the 8.5 is easily in reach.
OVER 8.5 EVEN
I think there are better games to look at than this one, though I think PHILA will win this game. The OVER has been coming in during this series as the METS have finally started to hit. The HP UMP Fletcher is 15-9 to the OVER, and averages over 11 rpg. With a line of 8.5 Under, I think you have to look at going OVER in this one. COGGIN has pitched well, but his road ERA approaches 5 as does TRASCHEL's at home. With METS hitting and PHILLIES needing a bust out game, OVER the 8.5 is easily in reach.
OVER 8.5 EVEN
Went 3-2-1 in the morning/afternoon games for +0.60 Units heading into the evening.
Gonna add these at 8 & 10 PM.
ANGELS -145
Anaheim is 4-0 when WASHBURN starts vs KC, KC is 9-27 vs lefties, ANA 19-6 in GAME 3 after a loss...and KC is 1-9 in DURBINS last 10 starts...
MINNY -150
Many are all over the OVER in this game, but I've gone UNDER with MAYS for quite some time now. Granted, MAYETTE may give up 11 himself, and after last nite's game, BP's are a bit overworked so I can't go UNDER. BUT, I don't see MAYS giving up many in this one, and MAYETTE will.... so, it's MINNY FOR ME!
San Fran -120
I can't see the DBACKS sweeping here vs the GIANTS. The last time SF hit a rut, SCHMIDT pitched them to a win, and I look for him to do it again. Small price on a good pitcher is all I need to see....
DODGERS -170
LA should win this game handily... they pound NEAGLE and PARK is incredible at home. PARK went the distance in ATL last week, thus eliminating a BP meltdown, and I think he'll do the same tonite, unless he has a five or more run lead, which I feel he may. VERY tempted to take LA -1.5 and THE OVER in this one, but LA messes me up too much to put that out on them. PARK however I do trust at home, and look for him to pitch a gem and get the W, whether it's 1-0 or 10-2.
Gonna add these at 8 & 10 PM.
ANGELS -145
Anaheim is 4-0 when WASHBURN starts vs KC, KC is 9-27 vs lefties, ANA 19-6 in GAME 3 after a loss...and KC is 1-9 in DURBINS last 10 starts...
MINNY -150
Many are all over the OVER in this game, but I've gone UNDER with MAYS for quite some time now. Granted, MAYETTE may give up 11 himself, and after last nite's game, BP's are a bit overworked so I can't go UNDER. BUT, I don't see MAYS giving up many in this one, and MAYETTE will.... so, it's MINNY FOR ME!
San Fran -120
I can't see the DBACKS sweeping here vs the GIANTS. The last time SF hit a rut, SCHMIDT pitched them to a win, and I look for him to do it again. Small price on a good pitcher is all I need to see....
DODGERS -170
LA should win this game handily... they pound NEAGLE and PARK is incredible at home. PARK went the distance in ATL last week, thus eliminating a BP meltdown, and I think he'll do the same tonite, unless he has a five or more run lead, which I feel he may. VERY tempted to take LA -1.5 and THE OVER in this one, but LA messes me up too much to put that out on them. PARK however I do trust at home, and look for him to pitch a gem and get the W, whether it's 1-0 or 10-2.
