- Mar 19, 2006
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Projecting the NCAA tournament field of 68
By Mike Huguenin, Yahoo! Sports 8 hours, 19 minutes ago
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basket...n_ncaa_mens_tournament_projected_field_030312
We?re barely more than a week from ?Selection Sunday,? and here is our look at how we think the 68-team NCAA tournament field will look when it is unveiled that day.
Tom Izzo's Spartans can jump into the group of No. 1 seeds.
(US Presswire)
It?s important to note that this is a projection of how teams are going to finish, not how the field would look if it were decided today.
Three teams earned their way into the NCAA field Saturday by winning their league tournament; those teams are denoted by the use of bold type. One more team will play its way into the field today when Creighton meets Illinois State in the Missouri Valley final. Bubble teams will keep a close eye on the final; while Creighton is an NCAA lock, the only way Illinois State gets a bid is with the tourney title, which, in turn, would ?steal? a bid from a bubble team.
One thing to keep in mind is that if Kansas gets a No. 1 seed, it almost certainly would get St. Louis as a regional site. Kentucky seems a certainty to play the first two rounds in Louisville, while Duke and North Carolina seem headed to Greensboro, N.C., for the first two rounds.
If Kentucky, as expected, is seeded No. 1 in the Southeast Region, it would play its Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games in Atlanta at the Georgia Dome, where a majority of the seats would be filled with folks wearing blue.
In our projection, teams are grouped by projected seed and listed from strongest to weakest within that seed. At the bottom is a breakdown by league of the number of projected bids and some information on the makeup of the field, the selection committee and the sites.
Remember that this is the second season of a 68-team field. There again will be four play-in games: two involving teams that will be No. 11 or 12 seeds and two involving teams that will be No. 16 seeds. To simplify matters, that?s why there are six teams at the Nos. 12 and 16 seedings.
[Video: Who is college basketball?s coach of the year?]
Asterisked teams must win their conference titles to receive an NCAA bid.
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No. 1s
1. Kentucky
2. Syracuse
3. Kansas
4. North Carolina
Buzz: Who will be the overall No. 1: UK or Syracuse? North Carolina is in line for the final No. 1 after winning the ACC regular-season title.
No. 2s
5. Michigan State
6. Duke
7. Missouri
8. Ohio State
Buzz: Michigan State still has a shot at a No. 1 seed; the Spartans meet Ohio State on Sunday for the Big Ten regular-season title.
No. 3s
9. Marquette
10. Michigan
11. Georgetown
12. Baylor
Buzz: If Michigan wins at Penn State on Sunday and Ohio State beats Michigan State, the Big Ten ends in a three-way tie between the Wolverines, Spartans and Buckeyes. Marquette finished second in the Big East. Baylor split its final eight regular-season games and easily could end up as a No. 4 seed.
No. 4s
13. Temple
14. Indiana
15. Wisconsin
16. Louisville
Buzz: Temple won the Atlantic 10 regular-season championship. Indiana finishes the regular season Sunday against archrival Purdue; Wisconsin finishes Sunday against Illinois.
No. 5s
17. Murray State
18. Notre Dame
19. Purdue
20. San Diego State
Buzz: Murray State barely escaped with the Ohio Valley tourney title over Tennessee State. San Diego State shared the Mountain West regular-season title with New Mexico and is the No. 1 seed in the league tourney.
No. 6s
21. Wichita State
22. Florida
23. Gonzaga
24. Florida State
Buzz: Wichita State won the Missouri Valley regular-season title but was upset in a tourney semifinal. Florida finishes the regular season Sunday by welcoming in Kentucky.
No. 7s
25. Creighton
26. New Mexico
27. Saint Mary?s
28. Vanderbilt
Buzz: Creighton has advanced to the final of the Missouri Valley tourney. New Mexico won a portion of the Mountain West regular-season title. Saint Mary?s has advanced to the West Coast Conference tourney final. Vandy is one of the nation?s biggest disappointments.
No. 8s
29. Iowa State
30. Memphis
31. Saint Louis
32. UNLV
Buzz: Iowa State owns a season sweep of Kansas State, as well as wins over Baylor and Kansas. Memphis won the Conference USA regular-season title.
No. 9s
33. Kansas State
34. Alabama
35. Virginia
36. West Virginia
Buzz: K-State owns a season sweep of Missouri and also won at Baylor. Virginia finishes the regular season Sunday at Maryland, a game the Cavs need to win. WVU is seeking its fifth consecutive NCAA bid.
No. 10s
37. Cincinnati
38. Harvard
39. Seton Hall
40. California
Buzz: Cincy finished in a tie for fourth in the Big East. California can clinch the No. 1 seed in the Pac-12 tourney with a win Sunday at Stanford.
No. 11s
41. BYU
42. Washington
43. Southern Miss
44. Connecticut
Buzz: Washington blew a chance to clinch the outright Pac-12 title Saturday by losing at UCLA. Southern Miss stumbled down the stretch, losing four of its final eight regular-season games.
No. 12s
45. Drexel
46. Xavier
47. Mississippi State
48. Colorado State
49. USF
50. Northwestern
Buzz: Drexel won the CAA regular-season title and has advanced to the league tourney semifinals. Mississippi State has won two in a row after a five-game losing streak. Northwestern still is seeking its first-ever NCAA bid.
No. 13s
51. VCU
52. Iona*
53. Long Beach State*
54. Oral Roberts*
Buzz: Long Beach State already has clinched the Big West regular-season title. Oral Roberts and Iona have advanced to the semifinals of their respective league tournaments.
No. 14s
55. Middle Tennessee State*
56. Nevada*
57. Belmont
58. Buffalo*
Buzz: Belmont won the Atlantic Sun tourney Saturday. Middle Tennessee is the No. 1 seed in the Sun Belt tourney and opens play Sunday. Nevada won the WAC regular-season title. While Akron won the MAC regular-season title, Buffalo swept the Zips in the regular season.
No. 15s
59. Davidson*
60. Valparaiso*
61. Weber State*
62. Long Island*
Buzz: Davidson has advanced to the Southern Conference semifinals. Valpo has advanced to the Horizon League tourney final, and will host the game. Long Island is in the semifinals of the Northeast League tourney and has all its conference tourney games at home.
No. 16s
63. Bucknell*
64. UT Arlington*
65. UNC Asheville
66. Mississippi Valley State*
67. Stony Brook*
68. Norfolk State*
Buzz: Remember that a 68-team field means at least four conference champs are going to end up in play-in games. UNC Asheville won the Big South tourney. Bucknell has advanced to the Patriot League tourney final. Mississippi Valley State and UT Arlington won their regular-season titles. Stony Brook has advanced to the America East semifinals.
<!-- close wrapper -->
Breakdown by league
10: Big East
7: Big Ten
5: Big 12, SEC
4: ACC, Mountain West
3: Atlantic 10, West Coast
2: Colonial, Conference USA, Missouri Valley, Pac-12
1: America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy, Metro Atlantic, Mid-American, Mid-Eastern Athletic, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sun Belt, Southwestern Athletic, Western Athletic (19)
Notes on makeup of field
? The NCAA uses an ?S curve,? meaning it ranks all 68 teams in order 1-68, then places them in regions under the theory the top No. 1 seed would have the worst No. 2 seed in its bracket, the worst No. 1 seed would have the top No. 2 seed, etc. The balancing of the regions is the most important factor in seeding the tournament.
? As far as other rules go, teams from the same conference hopefully won?t meet until a regional final, but the NCAA has relaxed that because some conferences have six and seven bids (it?s even permissible for an intraconference matchup in the second round, though that is to be avoided whenever possible). But the first three teams selected from a given conference must be in different regions.
? Higher-seeded teams should be placed as close to home as possible. No team may play on its home floor, but most sites are ?neutral courts? anyway.
? Teams can move up or down a spot or two in the ?S-curve,? maybe even a seed, to preserve other principles.
? Jeff Hathaway is the chairman of the 10-member NCAA Tournament Selection Committee this season. He retired as AD at Connecticut in August and was hired in October as a consultant to Big East commissioner John Marinatto; had he not been hired by the Big East, Hathaway would?ve lost his spot on the committee. Each member is selected for a four-year run; this is Hathaway?s final season. Former Big 12 commissioner Dan Beebe lost his spot on the committee when he was forced out by the league in September. Hathaway is one of four members with a ?Big Six? affiliation, joining LSU AD Joe Alleva, Oklahoma AD Joe Castiglione (he replaced Beebe) and Wake Forest AD Ron Wellman. The other six members: Utah State AD Scott Barnes, Xavier AD Mike Bobinski, Big Sky commissioner Doug Fullerton, Texas-San Antonio AD Lynn Hickey, SMU AD Steve Orsini and West Coast Conference commissioner Jamie Zaninovich. Hickey is the second woman to serve on the committee, following Charlotte AD Judy Rose (1999-2003).
Tournament sites
The four play-in games ? one for each region ? are March 13 and 14 in Dayton, Ohio.
March 15 and 17 first- and second-round sites are Albuquerque, N.M., Louisville, Ky., Pittsburgh and Portland, Ore.
March 16 and 18 first- and second-round sites are Columbus, Ohio; Greensboro, N.C.; Nashville, Tenn.; and Omaha, Neb.
March 22 and 24 regional sites are Boston and Phoenix.
March 23 and 25 regional sites are Atlanta and St. Louis.
The Final Four is March 31 and April 2 in New Orleans, at the Superdome.
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basket...n_ncaa_mens_tournament_projected_field_030312
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We?re barely more than a week from ?Selection Sunday,? and here is our look at how we think the 68-team NCAA tournament field will look when it is unveiled that day.
(US Presswire)
It?s important to note that this is a projection of how teams are going to finish, not how the field would look if it were decided today.
Three teams earned their way into the NCAA field Saturday by winning their league tournament; those teams are denoted by the use of bold type. One more team will play its way into the field today when Creighton meets Illinois State in the Missouri Valley final. Bubble teams will keep a close eye on the final; while Creighton is an NCAA lock, the only way Illinois State gets a bid is with the tourney title, which, in turn, would ?steal? a bid from a bubble team.
One thing to keep in mind is that if Kansas gets a No. 1 seed, it almost certainly would get St. Louis as a regional site. Kentucky seems a certainty to play the first two rounds in Louisville, while Duke and North Carolina seem headed to Greensboro, N.C., for the first two rounds.
If Kentucky, as expected, is seeded No. 1 in the Southeast Region, it would play its Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games in Atlanta at the Georgia Dome, where a majority of the seats would be filled with folks wearing blue.
In our projection, teams are grouped by projected seed and listed from strongest to weakest within that seed. At the bottom is a breakdown by league of the number of projected bids and some information on the makeup of the field, the selection committee and the sites.
Remember that this is the second season of a 68-team field. There again will be four play-in games: two involving teams that will be No. 11 or 12 seeds and two involving teams that will be No. 16 seeds. To simplify matters, that?s why there are six teams at the Nos. 12 and 16 seedings.
[Video: Who is college basketball?s coach of the year?]
Asterisked teams must win their conference titles to receive an NCAA bid.
<STYLE type=text/css>#ncaaprojs {width:638px;font-size:0.92em; text-align:left; line-height:1.4em; border:#ddd 1px solid;}#ncaaprojs div.labelpr {padding:4px; background-color:#ddd; font-weight:bold;}#ncaaprojs div.teampr {float:left; padding:4px; width:24%;}#ncaaprojs div.lastpr {width:22%;}#ncaaprojs div.teamprsix {float:left; padding:4px; width:15%;}#ncaaprojs div.lastprsix {width:14%;}#ncaaprojs div.buzzpr {clear:both; padding: 4px 4px 12px 4px; border-top:#ddd 1px solid;}</STYLE><!-- open wrapper -->
No. 1s
1. Kentucky
2. Syracuse
3. Kansas
4. North Carolina
Buzz: Who will be the overall No. 1: UK or Syracuse? North Carolina is in line for the final No. 1 after winning the ACC regular-season title.
No. 2s
5. Michigan State
6. Duke
7. Missouri
8. Ohio State
Buzz: Michigan State still has a shot at a No. 1 seed; the Spartans meet Ohio State on Sunday for the Big Ten regular-season title.
No. 3s
9. Marquette
10. Michigan
11. Georgetown
12. Baylor
Buzz: If Michigan wins at Penn State on Sunday and Ohio State beats Michigan State, the Big Ten ends in a three-way tie between the Wolverines, Spartans and Buckeyes. Marquette finished second in the Big East. Baylor split its final eight regular-season games and easily could end up as a No. 4 seed.
No. 4s
13. Temple
14. Indiana
15. Wisconsin
16. Louisville
Buzz: Temple won the Atlantic 10 regular-season championship. Indiana finishes the regular season Sunday against archrival Purdue; Wisconsin finishes Sunday against Illinois.
No. 5s
17. Murray State
18. Notre Dame
19. Purdue
20. San Diego State
Buzz: Murray State barely escaped with the Ohio Valley tourney title over Tennessee State. San Diego State shared the Mountain West regular-season title with New Mexico and is the No. 1 seed in the league tourney.
No. 6s
21. Wichita State
22. Florida
23. Gonzaga
24. Florida State
Buzz: Wichita State won the Missouri Valley regular-season title but was upset in a tourney semifinal. Florida finishes the regular season Sunday by welcoming in Kentucky.
No. 7s
25. Creighton
26. New Mexico
27. Saint Mary?s
28. Vanderbilt
Buzz: Creighton has advanced to the final of the Missouri Valley tourney. New Mexico won a portion of the Mountain West regular-season title. Saint Mary?s has advanced to the West Coast Conference tourney final. Vandy is one of the nation?s biggest disappointments.
No. 8s
29. Iowa State
30. Memphis
31. Saint Louis
32. UNLV
Buzz: Iowa State owns a season sweep of Kansas State, as well as wins over Baylor and Kansas. Memphis won the Conference USA regular-season title.
No. 9s
33. Kansas State
34. Alabama
35. Virginia
36. West Virginia
Buzz: K-State owns a season sweep of Missouri and also won at Baylor. Virginia finishes the regular season Sunday at Maryland, a game the Cavs need to win. WVU is seeking its fifth consecutive NCAA bid.
No. 10s
37. Cincinnati
38. Harvard
39. Seton Hall
40. California
Buzz: Cincy finished in a tie for fourth in the Big East. California can clinch the No. 1 seed in the Pac-12 tourney with a win Sunday at Stanford.
No. 11s
41. BYU
42. Washington
43. Southern Miss
44. Connecticut
Buzz: Washington blew a chance to clinch the outright Pac-12 title Saturday by losing at UCLA. Southern Miss stumbled down the stretch, losing four of its final eight regular-season games.
No. 12s
45. Drexel
46. Xavier
47. Mississippi State
48. Colorado State
49. USF
50. Northwestern
Buzz: Drexel won the CAA regular-season title and has advanced to the league tourney semifinals. Mississippi State has won two in a row after a five-game losing streak. Northwestern still is seeking its first-ever NCAA bid.
No. 13s
51. VCU
52. Iona*
53. Long Beach State*
54. Oral Roberts*
Buzz: Long Beach State already has clinched the Big West regular-season title. Oral Roberts and Iona have advanced to the semifinals of their respective league tournaments.
No. 14s
55. Middle Tennessee State*
56. Nevada*
57. Belmont
58. Buffalo*
Buzz: Belmont won the Atlantic Sun tourney Saturday. Middle Tennessee is the No. 1 seed in the Sun Belt tourney and opens play Sunday. Nevada won the WAC regular-season title. While Akron won the MAC regular-season title, Buffalo swept the Zips in the regular season.
No. 15s
59. Davidson*
60. Valparaiso*
61. Weber State*
62. Long Island*
Buzz: Davidson has advanced to the Southern Conference semifinals. Valpo has advanced to the Horizon League tourney final, and will host the game. Long Island is in the semifinals of the Northeast League tourney and has all its conference tourney games at home.
No. 16s
63. Bucknell*
64. UT Arlington*
65. UNC Asheville
66. Mississippi Valley State*
67. Stony Brook*
68. Norfolk State*
Buzz: Remember that a 68-team field means at least four conference champs are going to end up in play-in games. UNC Asheville won the Big South tourney. Bucknell has advanced to the Patriot League tourney final. Mississippi Valley State and UT Arlington won their regular-season titles. Stony Brook has advanced to the America East semifinals.
<!-- close wrapper -->
Breakdown by league
10: Big East
7: Big Ten
5: Big 12, SEC
4: ACC, Mountain West
3: Atlantic 10, West Coast
2: Colonial, Conference USA, Missouri Valley, Pac-12
1: America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy, Metro Atlantic, Mid-American, Mid-Eastern Athletic, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sun Belt, Southwestern Athletic, Western Athletic (19)
Notes on makeup of field
? The NCAA uses an ?S curve,? meaning it ranks all 68 teams in order 1-68, then places them in regions under the theory the top No. 1 seed would have the worst No. 2 seed in its bracket, the worst No. 1 seed would have the top No. 2 seed, etc. The balancing of the regions is the most important factor in seeding the tournament.
? As far as other rules go, teams from the same conference hopefully won?t meet until a regional final, but the NCAA has relaxed that because some conferences have six and seven bids (it?s even permissible for an intraconference matchup in the second round, though that is to be avoided whenever possible). But the first three teams selected from a given conference must be in different regions.
? Higher-seeded teams should be placed as close to home as possible. No team may play on its home floor, but most sites are ?neutral courts? anyway.
? Teams can move up or down a spot or two in the ?S-curve,? maybe even a seed, to preserve other principles.
? Jeff Hathaway is the chairman of the 10-member NCAA Tournament Selection Committee this season. He retired as AD at Connecticut in August and was hired in October as a consultant to Big East commissioner John Marinatto; had he not been hired by the Big East, Hathaway would?ve lost his spot on the committee. Each member is selected for a four-year run; this is Hathaway?s final season. Former Big 12 commissioner Dan Beebe lost his spot on the committee when he was forced out by the league in September. Hathaway is one of four members with a ?Big Six? affiliation, joining LSU AD Joe Alleva, Oklahoma AD Joe Castiglione (he replaced Beebe) and Wake Forest AD Ron Wellman. The other six members: Utah State AD Scott Barnes, Xavier AD Mike Bobinski, Big Sky commissioner Doug Fullerton, Texas-San Antonio AD Lynn Hickey, SMU AD Steve Orsini and West Coast Conference commissioner Jamie Zaninovich. Hickey is the second woman to serve on the committee, following Charlotte AD Judy Rose (1999-2003).
Tournament sites
The four play-in games ? one for each region ? are March 13 and 14 in Dayton, Ohio.
March 15 and 17 first- and second-round sites are Albuquerque, N.M., Louisville, Ky., Pittsburgh and Portland, Ore.
March 16 and 18 first- and second-round sites are Columbus, Ohio; Greensboro, N.C.; Nashville, Tenn.; and Omaha, Neb.
March 22 and 24 regional sites are Boston and Phoenix.
March 23 and 25 regional sites are Atlanta and St. Louis.
The Final Four is March 31 and April 2 in New Orleans, at the Superdome.
