GM
GM
Dug up this article on a sports website from this past December. It's just slightly under 40 since its inception....but I think they rounded off. Anyway....like I said...I still think its a worthwhile bet.....and am just trying to help... good luck.
Blame Dick Vermeil for Giants loss to Titans
By BBWC Staff
Date: Dec 2, 2002
When Vermeil was the offensive coordinator for UCLA, he and the head coach Tommy Prothro created a chart of when to go for two-point conversions based on the number of points a team was either leading by or trailing by. Maybe this works in college, but NFL coaches should throw the chart in the trash.
Most NFL coaches, including Fassel, have the chart in their pocket on game day and refer to it for each conversion. Here's a copy of the chart:
LEAD BY TRAIL BY
1 point Go for 2 1 point Go for 2
2 points Go for 1 2 points Go for 2
3 points Go for 1 3 points Go for 1
4 points Go for 2 4 points Decision
5 points Go for 2 5 points Go for 2
6 points Go for 1 6 points Go for 1
7 points Go for 1 7 points Go for 1
8 points Go for 1 8 points Go for 1
9 points Go for 1 9 points Go for 2
10 points Go for 1 10 points Go for 1
11 points Go for 1 11 points Go for 2
12 points Go for 2 12 points Go for 2
13 points Go for 1 13 points Go for 1
14 points Go for 1 14 points Go for 1
15 points Go for 2 15 points Go for 1
16 points Go for 1 16 points Go for 2
17 points Go for 1 17 points Go for 1
18 points Go for 1 18 points Go for 1
19 points Go for 2 19 points Go for 2
20 points Go for 1 20 points Go for 1
The one main factor that the chart doesn't state is when to use it. So in an attempt to help the Giants coaching staff, we are suggesting a new philosophy.
Throw out the chart unless there is 5 minutes left in the game.
For the first 55 minutes, always kick the extra point. With a 98% conversion rate on kicks verses a 40% two-point conversion rate, the two-point conversion should only be used when there are no more than two possessions possible without an on-sides kick.
When the Giants failed on their two-point conversion with 14:15 left in the game, their flawed philosophy was that the Giants would fail to score the rest of the game. Had there been 5 minutes left in the game, then go for the two-point conversion to seal the win. But with an entire quarter remaining, there are too many mathematical possibilities to rely on one chart.
With the Giants going into the wind in the 4th quarter, Fassel's actions clearly stated that he thought the Giants would not score again in the game. I guess he wasn't watching in the 2nd quarter when the Giants scored into the wind.
