Prop Betting Article............

soul train

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Jan 10, 2005
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Man that Terrell Owens is a pain in the butt. But he?s under contract to the Eagles, so he?s going to play for Philly.

That?s one reason why I see a huge edge in the following matchup proposition at Olympic sportsbook:

Donovan McNabb vs. Carolina Panthers quarterback Jake Delhomme to throw the most touchdown passes this season. McNabb is the underdog at plus 1 ? touchdowns. It?s my view Olympic has the wrong favorite. I?d make McNabb a whopping minus 8 ? touchdown favorite.

More and more, sportsbooks are putting up NFL props and bargains like this are there for the finding.

?McNabb threw 31 touchdowns passes last year to Delhomme?s 29 and that was with McNabb making just a token appearance in Week 16 while sitting out Week 17 with the Eagles? playoff seed wrapped up.

Delhomme had a career season last year because Carolina was forced to pass so much due to a cluster injury problem at running back. The Panthers lost their top four running backs, including Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster.

It?s not Panthers Coach John Fox?s style to air the ball. So this season the Panthers will go back to being the conservative, run-first-play-for-field-position team they were two years ago when they reached the Super Bowl.

Delhomme will be missing his favorite target, Muhsin Muhammad, who led the NFL in receiving yards last season. Delhomme does get back Steve Smith, who missed last season after breaking his leg in the opening game. But the Panthers have the 13th toughest schedule against the pass.

McNabb has more weapons than Delhomme even without injured wideout Todd Pinkston. McNabb has the 11th easiest schedule against the pass and his coach, Andy Reid, runs a pass-happy West Coast offense.

Owens gives McNabb the best wide receiver in the NFC. Tailback Brian Westbrook provides McNabb with the best pass-catching ability of any starting running back.

Yet, Delhomme is minus 1 ? touchdown passes against McNabb. No way.

Bodog.com is another Internet sportsbook offering various player props, including odds on who will have the most passing, rushing and receiving yards.

I think there?s some value to Green Bay?s Brett Favre at 12-1 for most passing yards, New Orleans? Deuce McAllister at 20-1 for most rushing yards and Cincinnati?s Chad Johnson at 8-1 for most receiving yards.

Favre hasn?t missed a game in 13 years; he threw for more than 4,000 yards last season (fourth-highest in the NFL); he reported to camp in great shape; and he?ll probably be involved in lots of shootouts because of the Packers? porous defense.

McAllister had the fourth-most rushing yards two years ago. He was hindered last season by a high ankle sprain that caused him to miss nearly three games and reduced his effectiveness when he did return.

At 26, McAllister is in his prime. He?s healthy again and the Saints have upgraded their offensive line drafting tackle Jammal Brown with the 13th overall pick and signing former Eagles guard Jermane Mayberry, a good drive blocker. The Saints also have a new offensive coordinator, Mike Sheppard, who wants to make McAllister and the ground attack the central part of New Orleans? offense. This should guarantee lots of carries for McAllister even if the Saints should fall behind early.

Johnson is entering his fifth season in the same system and has a big-armed, up-and-coming quarterback, Carson Palmer, throwing to him. Johnson has averaged more than 92 receptions the past two years. Only Torry Holt and Derrick Mason have grabbed 90 or more passes the last two seasons.

Johnson came within 132 yards of leading the NFL in receiving last season, and that was starting slow because of Palmer?s inexperience. Palmer?s expected improvement just could push Johnson to the top spot. I?m willing to find out at 8-1.
 
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