Green Bay versus Tennessee
We have the Titans with 19th ranked passing and 2nd ranked rushing offense versus the Packer with the 9th ranked passing defense and the 11th ranked rushing defense. Normally, I want to attach the weakness with my props. Going after the 11th ranked rushing defense doesn?t seem like a huge weakness.
Living in Minnesota there are plenty of avid Packer fans. One of my coworkers is a huge fan. So, I want to go back to last year. The Packers finished 14-4 on the season and the Packer fans feel they are just one step from the Super Bowl. In the NFC title game San Fran went right after their weakness and ran the ball down their throat. Mosert rushed 29 times for 220 yards.
This should have not been a surprise because last year in 12 of 16 games the opponent rushed for over 100 yards. In 10 games they rushed for 120 yards and in 7 games they rushed for over 140.
Ok Packers fans think we are just a couple of pieces away from the Super Bowl. Beef up the defense and get Rodgers a wide receiver. Boy did I have fun on draft day. They move up to take a QB (who is their third string QB), the second round a running back. Arguably their two best position. No receivers and nothing for the defense. They basically did nothing to address their weakness.
This year they are ranked 11th in rush defense. Sounds good until you look a little deeper. Of their 14 games so far this year they have had 7 games against teams that are in the bottom 9 in rushing.
On the flip side they have has just 3 games against teams in the top 9 in rushing. Those games were the first game of the season against Minnesota and they jumped to a big lead and Minnesota abandoned the run. In the rematch Minnesota ran it down their throats. Cook went 30 rushes for 160 yards and 4 TD?s. I told my Packer friends that I thought they Packers were the only team in the league where the fans own the team ?? I guess I was wrong because Cook owned them. Their other game against a top rushing team was New Orleans in week 3. Kamara and Murray both had 12 carries for 58 yards.
Their games against the weak rushing teams highlights their weakness even more. Four of those games look good from a stat point against the team?s top rusher. Houston 14 carries/42 yards, Detroit 7/41, 8/32 and Atlanta 16/57. Notice not very many attempts and teams that primarily pass the ball. Wait that is only 4 of the 7 games. The other 3 were a little different. Tampa Bay 23/113, Jacksonville 23/109 and Chicago 11/103. Their defense also ranks 20th in yards per attempt. Now that run defense isn?t looking so good.
This is a copycat league. Look at what other teams did successfully and try to repeat it. In their 3 losses this year it was MN 30/160, TB 23/113 and Indy 28/130. So, if I was the coach of Tennessee, I would run the ball down their throat and keep the ball away from Rodgers.
The posted line for rushing attempts for Henry is 22.5. When he has 20 attempts or more his rushing yards were: 116, 84, 119, 212, 75, 68, 133, 178, 215, 147 (those last 4 came in the last 5 games).
Against teams in the top 9 in rush defense he has gone 19/103, 27/178, 20/75 and 28/133.
With all of that said I am going to take my chances with Derrick Henry Over 104.5 Rushing Yards
As Always Good Luck
Northern Star
We have the Titans with 19th ranked passing and 2nd ranked rushing offense versus the Packer with the 9th ranked passing defense and the 11th ranked rushing defense. Normally, I want to attach the weakness with my props. Going after the 11th ranked rushing defense doesn?t seem like a huge weakness.
Living in Minnesota there are plenty of avid Packer fans. One of my coworkers is a huge fan. So, I want to go back to last year. The Packers finished 14-4 on the season and the Packer fans feel they are just one step from the Super Bowl. In the NFC title game San Fran went right after their weakness and ran the ball down their throat. Mosert rushed 29 times for 220 yards.
This should have not been a surprise because last year in 12 of 16 games the opponent rushed for over 100 yards. In 10 games they rushed for 120 yards and in 7 games they rushed for over 140.
Ok Packers fans think we are just a couple of pieces away from the Super Bowl. Beef up the defense and get Rodgers a wide receiver. Boy did I have fun on draft day. They move up to take a QB (who is their third string QB), the second round a running back. Arguably their two best position. No receivers and nothing for the defense. They basically did nothing to address their weakness.
This year they are ranked 11th in rush defense. Sounds good until you look a little deeper. Of their 14 games so far this year they have had 7 games against teams that are in the bottom 9 in rushing.
On the flip side they have has just 3 games against teams in the top 9 in rushing. Those games were the first game of the season against Minnesota and they jumped to a big lead and Minnesota abandoned the run. In the rematch Minnesota ran it down their throats. Cook went 30 rushes for 160 yards and 4 TD?s. I told my Packer friends that I thought they Packers were the only team in the league where the fans own the team ?? I guess I was wrong because Cook owned them. Their other game against a top rushing team was New Orleans in week 3. Kamara and Murray both had 12 carries for 58 yards.
Their games against the weak rushing teams highlights their weakness even more. Four of those games look good from a stat point against the team?s top rusher. Houston 14 carries/42 yards, Detroit 7/41, 8/32 and Atlanta 16/57. Notice not very many attempts and teams that primarily pass the ball. Wait that is only 4 of the 7 games. The other 3 were a little different. Tampa Bay 23/113, Jacksonville 23/109 and Chicago 11/103. Their defense also ranks 20th in yards per attempt. Now that run defense isn?t looking so good.
This is a copycat league. Look at what other teams did successfully and try to repeat it. In their 3 losses this year it was MN 30/160, TB 23/113 and Indy 28/130. So, if I was the coach of Tennessee, I would run the ball down their throat and keep the ball away from Rodgers.
The posted line for rushing attempts for Henry is 22.5. When he has 20 attempts or more his rushing yards were: 116, 84, 119, 212, 75, 68, 133, 178, 215, 147 (those last 4 came in the last 5 games).
Against teams in the top 9 in rush defense he has gone 19/103, 27/178, 20/75 and 28/133.
With all of that said I am going to take my chances with Derrick Henry Over 104.5 Rushing Yards
As Always Good Luck
Northern Star
