Props to you...

[GM]

Ok, here's one I took a gamble on last year that I think is an excellent value....

===========================================

Will there be a successful 2 point conversion? If Neither team attempts a 2 pt conversion, wager has no action.
155 Yes +380
156 No -500

===========================================

Of utmost importance...make sure your sportsbook stipulates that if no 2-pt conversion is attempted, the bet is no action. This is a must.

2-pointers were converted at a rate of 44% this year. Getting +380 on something that has almost a 50% chance of happening (if the bet is action) is excellent value. And you may even get more than one crack at it.

Based on this year's conversion rates....

• If one 2-pter is attempted, it would be successful 44% of the time;
• If two 2-pters are attempted, at least one of them would be successful 69% of the time;
• If three 2-pters are attempted, at least one of them would be successful 82% of the time.

One little caveat though....I took this prop last year, at +500. And it lost. The Raiders missed not one, not two, but yes...THREE two-pointers in that game. Unreal. But I'd still take this bet again 11 times out of 10....too much value to pass up, regardless of which teams are involved, how good their defences are, etc etc.

More props to come....

 

[GM]

An odd little middle possibility (remote as it may seem)

An odd little middle possibility (remote as it may seem)

At Infinity...

============================================

219-COMPLETIONS BY BOTH TEAMS QBACKS IN THE GAME
1 Over 38 COMPLETIONS -115
2 Under 38 COMPLETIONS -115

232-TOTAL RECEPTIONS BY BOTH TEAMS IN THE GAME
1 Over 37 RECEPTIONS -110
2 Under 37 RECEPTIONS -120

============================================

Bet 'em both this way, and if there are exactly 37 or 38 completions/receptions in the game, you win one, push the other. Otherwise you just lose a small amount of juice. I know... it seems like a real longshot...but who knows.

Is it possible to have a completion but no reception?? If anyone knows how, I'd like to hear it.

Also...the first prop specifies "by both teams QBacks", whereas the second prop has no such qualification. So if a player other than a QB throws and completes a pass, your open up that window of opportunity just a bit. A free reception without counting against your QB's Under.

Still working....

 

[GM]

Odd vs Even Jersey number combined with TD or non-TD first score

Odd vs Even Jersey number combined with TD or non-TD first score

Ok, it might be a crazy idea, but I've been working on this for about an hour...here's my thoughts...

First the odd-numbered guys, then the even, on each team....(key players on offence, that is)....

Carolina:
17 Jake Delhomme QB
45 Brad Hoover FB
81 Ricky Proehl WR
85 Kevin Dyson WR
87 Muhsin Muhammad WR
89 Steve Smith WR
-------------------------
4 John Kasay K
20 Deshaun Foster RB
32 Rod Smart RB
48 Stephen Davis RB
84 Jermaine Wiggins TE


New England:
33 Kevin Faulk RB
81 Bethel Johnson WR
83 Deion Branch WR
87 David Givens WR
---------------------------
4 Adam Vinatieri K
12 Tom Brady QB
32 Antowain Smith RB
80 Troy Brown WR
82 Daniel Graham TE
88 Christian Fauria TE

Team Even definitely appears to have a better chance of scoring first...mainly because both K's are on the Evens. After that it's a bit of a toss-up. NE's Evens are the more-potent team.... Carolina's rushers are Evens and receivers are Odds (for the most part).

Ok, now I'm thinking...out of the following 4 possibilities... which is the LEAST likely to happen?

1) First score of the game is a TD by an Even
2) First score of the game is a TD by an Odd
3) First score of the game is something other than a TD by an Even
4) First score of the game is something other than a TD by an Odd

The only way I can see #4 happening is by a safety being the first scoring play of the game (and even if that happens there's a 50/50 chance it's an Even who gets it). Who else is going to kick for the first points if not Vinatieri or Kasay? CAR's backup kicker is also an Even, though NE's is an Odd. Anyways...it's not impossible...but I see it as unlikely that #4 happens. So... on to the props....

============================================

102-THE FIRST SCORE OF THE GAME WILL BE
1 A TOUCHDOWN -125
2 ANY OTHER SCORE -105

252-PLAYER TO SCORE FIRST IN THE GAME WILL HAVE
1 EVEN NUMBER JERSEY -210
2 ODD NUMBER JERSEY +175

============================================

Taking the combination in bold to me seems like the best shot at making some money....though it does have a huge downfall if somehow neither wins.

With a little number crunching, I came up with this....
* Bet 250 to win 200 on "TD Scored First"
* Bet 336 to win 160 on "Even Numbered Jersey"

With this:
* If an Even-numbered player scores a TD as the first score, profit = $360
* If an Odd-numbered player scores a TD as the first score, net loss = -$136
* If an Even-numbered player scores something other than a TD (more than likely this will be a field goal), net loss = -$90
* If disaster strikes and neither comes up, net loss = -$586

It may not look pretty with 3 of the 4 options losing money (especially that last biggie), but as I see it....the most-likely risk is either $136 or $90. So you've got a shot at making a decent payday at "realistic" odds of 3:1 or 4:1. And the combination I have chosen, in theory, should have the best chance to happen of the 4 possibilities (both "TD" and "Even" are ML favorites).

Anyone think this is a worthwhile combo of props to bet (or not)? Anybody make it all the way through all this?

 

[Franky Wright]

GM,
Makes sense to me

GL

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

that's some CRAZY shit you posted dude.....

always glad to see someone out there is thinking about these props....

in this day and age when you have CHOICE, have an open mind....


guess others don't like to win money that much...

 

[GM]

More...

More...

Ok, well, someone likes 'em, nice to know.

Added the following:

114-WILL A TEAM SCORE IN 1ST 7MIN OF THE GAME
1 YES -105
2 NO -125

I just like it....not much more I can say than that.

142-WHICH TEAM WILL SCORE THE LONGEST FIELD GOAL?
1 PANTHERS +105
2 PATRIOTS -135

Why are the Pats favored here, and by so much? Ok, I know they are favored to win the game by 7, so maybe the thinking is Vinatieri gets a couple extra kicks at it. But take a look at the numbers and I think you'll agree Kasay has the better shot at a longer FG.

Vinatieri this year was 5/8 from 40+ yards, 0/1 from 50+ yards, longest FG of the year was 48 yds.

Kasay was 11/13 from 40+ yards, 2/4 from 50+ yards, longest FG of the year was 53 yds.

Kasay has also had many more attempts throughout the year. Those stats alone indicate to me that +105 is definitely worth a shot. Plus, I believe when stuck in the long-range part of the field, John Fox is more likely to take a shot at the long FG. Whereas we may see the Patriots trying to convert the 4th down in this gray area, as I've seen them do this on a few occasions this year.

When it comes down to just one game, anything can happen, so this is not the biggest $$ amount I am putting on a prop....but I like it.

I've also settled on Carolina +7? -120 (bought the hook), and Under 37?. Still studying a couple other props, in particular defensive TD props.

Cheers.

 

[THE HITMAN]

That's how to beat the props, GM..............gotta think & do the numbers. GL.........THE HITMAN

 

[joebell]

2 pt Conv. - yes +380....

Nice Hit

 

[GM]

I hit 'em all...except for the even jersey #, and the Under for the game. All in all a hell of Superbowl....made over $1000 on the one game. Thanks everybody for a great year....see you in September!!!!

Extra thanks to Vinatieri for missing that FG 5 mins into the game...and great thanks to the fact there were actually 3 two-pt conversions attempted...and finally, on the third one, it was successful!

 

[Anders]

Well done GM
U may have seen, I was on the 2pt conversion 2 at a better price - didn't check the rules on no attempt ....
Man, talk about getting a prop the hard way with the Panthers missing 2 attempts first...
As for my OT prop ...
Hey, anyone noticed that I'm bitter about this?? :thefinger

 

[MrChristo]

Hey...Great way to finish a fine season, GM.

Well done today and the season as a whole.

Definately look forward to seeing you in these parts in 8 months time. :toast:

Cheers,
Christo.