Public Fade System

[BuffaloBill]

4-0 tonight with sides and totals going against public.

Good job.

It's funny, you see all kinds of guys out there trying to come of with angles, trends, systems, etc.

I think you have found the best system of all.

Just go with the bookies. They are in business for a reason.

Thanks Gibber.

 

[Stag]

I love this, too.
Be the bookies, essentially.
Look at my similair post about going against the New York "square" sports media guys. They are horrible.
The link you gave is awesome! Only thing is.....how many of these favorites were counted in teasers and money lines. Obviously, it's much easier to win with a favorite if there is no point spread involved (money line) or if you can move the spread 6 or more points (teasers and monster teasers.) I wish we can see just "straight" bets, ya know.......regular point spread results.
Any info on that?
Thanks again for the link.

 

[Theboundbook]

This is the way, for sure to make money.............. The juice is the only difference than being the "house"...... PEOPLE, use this system and you will come out fine at the end of this NFL system...... Will start looking at the College trends and other sports too. Gibber, thanks for the link.

 

[BuffaloBill]

I am sure this will work in every sport.

 

[Heyward]

8-2 80 %...............84% on Dallas tomorrow night........bet it goes to 7 points

Hopefully, the fact that this line actually went the opposite way to -5.5 tipped everybody off that the Redskins were the play. System looking pretty good.

 

[GM]

Rookie here, but where do I find the consensus for totals? And whats the difference between sides, money and total? Sorry!!!!

Consensus for totals is at that link above, under "Total"....which answers part of your question. The first number listed under "Total" (on the same line as the visiting team) is the % of people who took the over. The number on the line with the home team is the % of people who took the under.

As for the difference between sides and money....

Say 3 people put down $100 apiece on Dallas, and one person puts down $300 on Washington. In this example, 75% of the people are on the Dallas "side" (and 25% are on the Washington "side"), but the money is 50% on each.

So if the money percentage exceeds the side percentage, it means the bigger bettors (on average) are on Washington. That doesn't mean they are the smarter bettors though. Rich people / heavy bettors can be just as misinformed as the poor / small bettors.

 

[BuffaloBill]

Good answer GM.

I have been looking into this a bit more, and I have come to the conclusion that this will be a profitable system, but we may need to get a bigger data base.

Just using the above link might not be enough. I think we need to figure out a way to get a larger "pool" size.

It will work for a general look at what everyone is doing, but for all we know this could only be out of 100 bettors.

If we could get a range of say 1,000 bettors, I think we could then narrow this system down a bit.

Plus, if you take a look at it today for NCAA Football, if you go by the Gibber's system, you will be betting half of the games on the board. This might be too much. Or, maybe we need to raise the Gibber's percentage to about 90% and above. Not really sure, I will have to keep experimenting.

There has to be a way to get a more specific look at this.

If anyone has anything, please let us know.

I will keep working on this myself.

 

[snoozer]

Thanks for the info, I found it very helpful and will continue to use it. I am in a pool at work that be pick against the spread and the over/underand I won this last weekend, I credit this information as it helps identify what not pick.

2 questions I have...
1) is there anywhere that shows what number of people this % is based on... do we know if it is 40 people or 400?

2) Do most books provide this information, especially if you are not a member?

 

[theGibber1]

Good answer GM.

I have been looking into this a bit more, and I have come to the conclusion that this will be a profitable system, but we may need to get a bigger data base.

Just using the above link might not be enough. I think we need to figure out a way to get a larger "pool" size.

It will work for a general look at what everyone is doing, but for all we know this could only be out of 100 bettors.

If we could get a range of say 1,000 bettors, I think we could then narrow this system down a bit.

Plus, if you take a look at it today for NCAA Football, if you go by the Gibber's system, you will be betting half of the games on the board. This might be too much. Or, maybe we need to raise the Gibber's percentage to about 90% and above. Not really sure, I will have to keep experimenting.

There has to be a way to get a more specific look at this.

If anyone has anything, please let us know.

I will keep working on this myself.

I know what you mean about the NCAA games. There are just to many games. Plus i am not sure if this will work for college b/c heavy favs seem to actually win from time to time.

i also see your point about a larger sample size. There is probably a better way to get a bigger pool size, but is it necessary? i believe there are enough suckers on the site to give us a good idea what Johnny Moron is betting on.

Ive been fooling around with this since pre season, and every week it hits. My point is, so what if there are only 200 people betting with sportsbook.com. They are obviously clueless about NFL wagering. People follow Noles fade religiously and that is just one person.

and lastly

if it aint broke, dont fix it

ill probably keep riding with this (win or lose) for at least a few more weeks



gl

gib

 

[Heyward]

As for the difference between sides and money....

Say 3 people put down $100 apiece on Dallas, and one person puts down $300 on Washington. In this example, 75% of the people are on the Dallas "side" (and 25% are on the Washington "side"), but the money is 50% on each.

So if the money percentage exceeds the side percentage, it means the bigger bettors (on average) are on Washington. That doesn't mean they are the smarter bettors though. Rich people / heavy bettors can be just as misinformed as the poor / small bettors.

Not bashing, but I think the "Money" column shows the percentage of bets on each moneyline. That's how they could get 100% on Kansas City - everyone who is betting on Denver is using the spread, while there are a lot of folks who think the Chiefs could win straight up.

 

[Daeg041]

This system was almost dead on with college as well. Your never going to win all fo these games. However if you can go 3-1 your doing great

 

[snoozer]

didn't check over/under in college, but it looks like 6-4 in college... I could be wrong, but I think that is close.... as for today, here are the numbers....
loss/win was how the majority of people did.

STL -7 77% loss
Philly over 46 83% loss
philly -9 73% loss
carolina -3.5 74% loss
Indy -13.5 88% loss
Minn over 45 78% win
carolina over 37 74% win
Indy over 47 72% loss
Buffalo under 37 79% loss
zona over 42 85% win
dallas -6.5 84% loss
NE over 42.5 73% win
NYG over 43 82%???
KC +3 82%

going against above 70% 8-4
going against above 75% 5-2
going against above 80% 3-1

looks like the play is to take the under tonight

 

[thewarlord]

played three of the unders today and all were losers. From now on when I look at this I'm only considering sides.