Took a look as I was wondering if my sorry ass was on the public ride with Steelers for Thursday. For TNF, Bengals allegedly had the consensus public play at 57%. The +5.5 listed as "best odds." Good call by "the public". Wish they'd given me a holler.
Last week--week 6--public love affairs (60%+ of tickets) went 3-7 against the spread. The two public dogs went 1-1 (Bengals lost by 9 at +14, Lions lost by 13 while +2.5). So, "consensus" favorites went 2-6 against the spread. Rams and Patriots only covers. Of the six spreads that lost, underdog won outright in three of them (Giants over Eagles while getting +7.5, Panthers by a field goal over Dallas while getting +3, and Patriots over Bills while at +4). The three winning but not covering were Broncos (-7) by 2, Colts (-9.5) by 4, and Chargers (-3.5) by 2. Numbers based on their "best odds" but must be at closing as I had a much better spread for Colts, not that it helped.
60%+ "of tickets" (not by money) for week 7 were late Thurs/late Fri/late Sat.:
jaguars +3 NL/61%/61%(+3) LOSS 7-35
dolphins +2.5 75%/71%/69%(+2.5) LOSS 6-31
patriots -7 75%/75%/77%(-6.5) WIN 31-13
saints +4.5 62%/<57%>/<56%>(+4) LOSS 14-26
eagles -1.5 NL/62%/64%(-1.5) WIN 28-22
panthers -1.5 63%/63%/63%(+1) WIN 13-6
colts +2 83%/83%/81%(+2.5) WIN 38-24
giants +7 77%/75%/73%(+7) win 32-33
Cowboys +2.5 73%/66%/60%(-1.5) WIN 44-22
packers NL NL/NL/60%(-7) loss 27-23
falcons +2 76%/75%/74%(+2.5) LOSS 10-20
buccaneers +5.5 78%/76%/76%(+5.5)
Seahawks -3 61%/62%/62%(-3)
Seven dogs amongst the (original) ten found. Not sure what to make of that. I'm going to check their listings over next couple of days to see if this changes.
--that damn ballgame made me forget I was going to update if needed; I took a look Friday early evening and the % listed only changed by 1 or 2; was one new addition with Eagles. Shit. Shouldn't have looked. Jags now 61%. Fine...okay...call it Thursday night/Friday night, biggest change being Cowboys drop; 3 or 4 listed "best odds" changed also, but only by a half-point in every case except one, that Cowboys game where best odds now listed at +1.5 instead of the +2.5 above. Oh, and Saints was one that dropped below the 60% (with same +4.5). I probably made a mess of it but its been a long year. I have no clue what use to make of this information, or even what my name is, at this point in time.
--last look super-late Saturday; as close to "closing" as I can go, although I imagine the closing % is what will remain at below link once games are done; Packers a new addition and Saints are still the only to drop out of "public pick" (at 60%+); this sites % numbers are clearly based around the line they are drawing--by whatever their current "best odds" are, as evidenced by the movements and even the glaring example of Cowboys shifting from slight dog to slight fave, and hence their public ticket % sliding from 73% down to 60%; mind you, the Panthers apparently did a similar flip but from slight faves (from my first track) to slight dog as they presently have it, but tickets posted at 63% throughout; if I mark the results I'll use the right-most numbers (spread in brackets) as that is closing line, or as close as I can survive to
source:
www.actionnetwork.com
Last week--week 6--public love affairs (60%+ of tickets) went 3-7 against the spread. The two public dogs went 1-1 (Bengals lost by 9 at +14, Lions lost by 13 while +2.5). So, "consensus" favorites went 2-6 against the spread. Rams and Patriots only covers. Of the six spreads that lost, underdog won outright in three of them (Giants over Eagles while getting +7.5, Panthers by a field goal over Dallas while getting +3, and Patriots over Bills while at +4). The three winning but not covering were Broncos (-7) by 2, Colts (-9.5) by 4, and Chargers (-3.5) by 2. Numbers based on their "best odds" but must be at closing as I had a much better spread for Colts, not that it helped.
60%+ "of tickets" (not by money) for week 7 were late Thurs/late Fri/late Sat.:
jaguars +3 NL/61%/61%(+3) LOSS 7-35
dolphins +2.5 75%/71%/69%(+2.5) LOSS 6-31
patriots -7 75%/75%/77%(-6.5) WIN 31-13
saints +4.5 62%/<57%>/<56%>(+4) LOSS 14-26
eagles -1.5 NL/62%/64%(-1.5) WIN 28-22
panthers -1.5 63%/63%/63%(+1) WIN 13-6
colts +2 83%/83%/81%(+2.5) WIN 38-24
giants +7 77%/75%/73%(+7) win 32-33
Cowboys +2.5 73%/66%/60%(-1.5) WIN 44-22
packers NL NL/NL/60%(-7) loss 27-23
falcons +2 76%/75%/74%(+2.5) LOSS 10-20
buccaneers +5.5 78%/76%/76%(+5.5)
Seahawks -3 61%/62%/62%(-3)
Seven dogs amongst the (original) ten found. Not sure what to make of that. I'm going to check their listings over next couple of days to see if this changes.
--that damn ballgame made me forget I was going to update if needed; I took a look Friday early evening and the % listed only changed by 1 or 2; was one new addition with Eagles. Shit. Shouldn't have looked. Jags now 61%. Fine...okay...call it Thursday night/Friday night, biggest change being Cowboys drop; 3 or 4 listed "best odds" changed also, but only by a half-point in every case except one, that Cowboys game where best odds now listed at +1.5 instead of the +2.5 above. Oh, and Saints was one that dropped below the 60% (with same +4.5). I probably made a mess of it but its been a long year. I have no clue what use to make of this information, or even what my name is, at this point in time.
--last look super-late Saturday; as close to "closing" as I can go, although I imagine the closing % is what will remain at below link once games are done; Packers a new addition and Saints are still the only to drop out of "public pick" (at 60%+); this sites % numbers are clearly based around the line they are drawing--by whatever their current "best odds" are, as evidenced by the movements and even the glaring example of Cowboys shifting from slight dog to slight fave, and hence their public ticket % sliding from 73% down to 60%; mind you, the Panthers apparently did a similar flip but from slight faves (from my first track) to slight dog as they presently have it, but tickets posted at 63% throughout; if I mark the results I'll use the right-most numbers (spread in brackets) as that is closing line, or as close as I can survive to
source:
NFL Public Betting & Money Percentages | The Action Network
Get public betting percentages on every NFL game to see which teams might be overvalued and undervalued by bettors.
www.actionnetwork.com
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