Purdue/Minn BIG Play

[Ndfan]

First off this was the first game that jumped out at me when I saw the opening lines. I LOVE Minn in this spot. Minn opened as a 3 pt fav and is already up to 3.5 and 4. Purdue comes into this game ranked #11 in the ap and #10 in the coaches polls. Minn isn't even ranked in the top 25. They are favored for a reason, and the smart money appears to be on minn. I love playing unranked home favs over ranked opponents.

Minn is averaging 335 yds on the ground and 218 in the air. Purdue averages 203 in the air and 225 on the ground. The defense of purdue is what scares me a little they have stopped the run allowing only 16 yds on the ground, but they haven't played anyone that has tested them. This will be Purdue's toughest opponent this year. I think Purdue is overrated this year and playing at minn won't be easy. I look for a strong performance from minn by controlling the game with the run which will open up the passing game against a soft purdue pass defense. Purdue is 1-3 ats in thier last 10 when being outrushed, while Minn is 6-1 ats in thier last 10 when they outrushed their opponent. I look for Minn to win by at least 10+.

 

[Brocky]

Purdue won the last six match ups?

 

[Ndfan]

ya, that worries me a bit, but this is a different purdue team than last years, and i don't think purdue is going to cover on the road against a team that is just as good or better than them.

I need some help on this game cant' decide if it should be a big play or not

 

[mcity]

not to mention, purdue has ND on deck next week!! I think Minny is a good play this week although I wouldn't go huge on it just because of the fact that purdue has owned minny last 6 times.....but still a good set-up for minny. good luck!!

 

[ces]

If anyone knows, help me out here. There is an "angle" that is over 60% and I believe it is to bet on a nonranked team when giving pts. to a ranked team. As you said, there is a reason Min. is favored.

 

[block044]

i agree with your angles...points of interest: purdue returns all eleven starters on defens...purdue also had to fly to play arizona late night saturday, and fly all the way back home, and then on the road again to minnesota...could be a lot of travel...wish the unranked home team were getting 3 or 4 points in this one and i would be on it huge right there with ya...

 

[chase71]

Purdue Romps

Purdue Romps

This is the most ridiculous line of the week and you guys are jumping on it hook, line and sinker.

Purdue leads the nation in rushing defense. That is Minnesota's only offense. Sure Purdue will give up some pass plays but my prediction is that Void makes Maroney look like a second class RB. Minnesota is always overrated entering the Big 10 season where they come in undefeated and ranked. They then lose the next 5 and end up playing in the Music City Bowl. If my information is correct they lost to IU last year. Give me a break this is no team that can compete with Purdue. Tiller 7-0 against Minn and it will be 8-0 after this one. Purdue +4 for a $1 take it to the bank.

 

[Dice34]

Purdue may lead the league in rushing defense, but(even with all 11 starters on D back), they still gave up 24pts to Arizona and 24 to AKRON!...Purdue will not blow them out of the water, this is a huge swing game for both these teams and the loser can pretty much kiss their Big 10 title hopes good bye.

 

[INtheBLUE]

Gotta agree that Minny looks real hungry this year. I think that you can throw all the previous games out the window this year and it just boils down to who's the better team.

Purdue Offense has struggled this season already, but make no mistake, they will be ready this week.

Minny has done nothing but coast this year, but that may have given them a false sense of security.

Average bonus for a home team is 1.5-3 points. Minny is favored for the home field bonus and nothing more. This is really a pk game which would spell pick your favorite team and tease the hell out of it.

I dont like teasing but these are the games that it actually work on. I really think Minny is the better value. The running attack has been so dominant, yes I know against weaker teams, in the first half when opponents D is still fresh. Purdue will win the second half, but Minny will win the first and probably by more of a spread leading to the end result of a W.

 

[chase71]

Purdue

Purdue

I just hope you guys keep jumping on Minn so the line continues to go up. The simple fact is that Purdue does not lose to teams like Minn.

 

[Mason]

Minnesota will run all over Purdue. Ask Alabama what it's like trying to stop Minny's running game. Bama came into the bowl game last year without an opposing RB having gained 100yds all season. MBIII and LM BOTH cracked 100 against them. I expect no different this year. How Minny's young 'D' will fare against that Purdue spread passing game is another matter all together I like Minny in this spot though.



Mason

 

[Ndfan]

I just hope you guys keep jumping on Minn so the line continues to go up. The simple fact is that Purdue does not lose to teams like Minn.

For you to say Purdue doesn't lose to teams like Minn is ridiculas. Purdue lost to Northwestern last year and almost lost to illinois, I know minn lost to indiana who is bad also. Purdue covered one game on the road last year and that was against Notre Dame who was horrible last year and had the worst pass defense in the country and that happened to be purdue's strength last year with orton. Not one game on the road in the big ten have they covered since ohio state two years ago by a half point. Purdue didn't cover last week at AZ who is bad or in week one against akron. So your saying Minn is a bottom of the big ten team and Purdue is a top of the big ten team. I think your wrong. Purdues rush defense isn't as good as it may appear last week mike bell ran the ball 14 times for 47 yards. Im not saying that's good but its not bad, Az qb rushed 6 times for -32 yards thats why the stats are in favor of purdue's defense. And saying their defense will make Maroney look like a second class RB is rediculas. I'm still sticking with minn, this is Purdues second striaght road game and they have nd on deck next week, so this is a tough spot for them.

Not sure yet if I will make it a big play yet, More thoughts are appreciated.

 

[Dice34]

Didnt they lose to Northwestern last year?

 

[Ndfan]

Ya they lost to Northwestern 10-13.

 

[DIRTY Diapers]

ND Fan - I'm staying away from this game. But if I had to chose it would be Minny. I have been saying all along Purdue is not as good as everyone makes them out to be. I had Zona +7.5 last week. I still don't think Purdue has that winning mentality. Who knows that might change this years. Plus, Purdue has had to travel a lot the past two weeks, and might be looking ahead to the domers. GL.

 

[BBMF]

Minny has not played Purdue since 2002. Purdue was off schedule the past two years.

2 All-Americans on the offensive line and a great troop of running backs (Maroney is great, but they also feature Gary Russell & Amir Pinnix -two backs who would start for most teams in the nation).

Minnesota gradually wears down the Purdue defense and wins going away:

FINAL Minn 31 Purdue 17

Minny -4.5

 

[Dice34]

This is the most ridiculous line of the week and you guys are jumping on it hook, line and sinker.

Purdue leads the nation in rushing defense. That is Minnesota's only offense. Sure Purdue will give up some pass plays but my prediction is that Void makes Maroney look like a second class RB. Minnesota is always overrated entering the Big 10 season where they come in undefeated and ranked. They then lose the next 5 and end up playing in the Music City Bowl. If my information is correct they lost to IU last year. Give me a break this is no team that can compete with Purdue. Tiller 7-0 against Minn and it will be 8-0 after this one. Purdue +4 for a $1 take it to the bank.

You're prediction isn't looking so good about Maroney looking like a 2nd class back to Void!

Early 2nd quarter
Maroney 16-98yds
Void 3-10 yds

 

[chase71]

I confess

I confess

I was incorrect on my prediction. Minnesota looked better than I expected and Purdue looked worse than I expected.

Glenn Mason should have lost his job if Minn lost that game by putting the ball in Cupito's hands instead of continuing to pound the ball. Props to Maroney and the O-line they made holes big enough for my grandma to run through and Purdue couldn't make a stop. I'm not sure either team deserved to win this one but unfortunately I was on the wrong side with Purdue +4.

Still not sold on Minnesota. I think they win their home games and struggle when they get out of the dome.