Question about Baffling line movement

[blandman2]

I've been a member of this forum for years, but never post. Hopefully that won't deter you guys from reading this and providing me some feedback.

I've been noticing something strange lately when reviewing % of bets vs % of money bet on a game. Every once in a while I will check this app I have to see if there are any strange betting patterns going on (reverse line movements, steam plays, huge public bettering, etc.). I'm not using this as my sole rationale for picking a team, but I like to see what the market thinks about a game.

Well this weekend is a perfect example of something that just doesn't make sense to me, so I'm hoping you guys can help. On Sunday, there were 4 games that fit this criteria of "weird" to me.

Buffalo
Baltimore
Philadelphia
Washington

All four teams had the majority percentage of bets AND the majority percentage of money on them (spread, not money line). This isn't uncommon, the teams were all favorites and they were all being pounded by what seemed to be everyone (public and not). However, all four lines went in the opposite direction of what I would've expected. For example, the Washington line opened at -6.5, and with the majority of bets and the majority of money on the Redskins, Vegas moved the line to...-4.5? What the hell does this mean?

The same goes for the Bills. Opened at -4.5 and closed at -3.5... with the majority of bets and money on them.

Aren't these lines moving in the wrong direction? Unless the data I have are wrong, this makes no sense. By the way, these 4 teams went 3-1 ATS this week. What do you guys think?

 

[BuddyWright]

Wrong thread...sorry

 

[Subcloser]

NFL line movement can be very hard to read...Millions of dollars bet on each game world wide...me personally I don?t trust the sites that tell me what percentage of the public or public money is on one side...to me there is no logical way to get that information from the thousands of outlets that take action around the world much less certain books in Vegas...what would a book in Vegas have to gain by giving out that information accurately?...I could be wrong but my explanation makes more sense than some of the crazy conspiracy theories I have read online...gl, let me know if you figure out this age old question

 

[DZ]

Every once in a while I will check this app I have to see if there are any strange betting patterns going on (reverse line movements, steam plays, huge public bettering, etc.). I'm not using this as my sole rationale for picking a team, but I like to see what the market...
Aren't these lines moving in the wrong direction? Unless the data I have are wrong, this makes no sense.

Would you be able to share wit us what APP you are using? Might help answer the question

 

[ChasDee]

It is my understanding that line movement occurs to attract equal money on both sides. In that way, the bookie never loses because of the vig. Personally, I find it hard to believe that Vegas knows who's going to win the game, much less cover the spread, especially in the NFL where turnovers and penalties play such a huge role.
So I just don't buy into "reverse line-movement" to draw money on one team because they know that team is not going to cover the spread. If you track those games, I think you'll find out there is no correlation. At least that's my take on the subject.
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