Question About Four Consec. Days

[Nolan Dalla]

I have a question, that hopefully someone can answer with hard data. If not, some speculation is welcome.

I see that some teams tomorrow are playing their FOURTH GAME IN FOUR DAYS. That's a lot of physical and emotional toil on young athletes, especially since most of these games are away from the home court.

Does anyone have data that stipulates the ATS records of teams (virtually all will be conference tournament results) that play FOUR STRAIGHT DAYS?

I have a database, but I can't segregate it according to dates.

Even some guesswork is welcome here, if anyone wants to chime in and express some view as to whether the fourth game becomes a "zone" game (intense mental focus) or the opposite, a game where the team runs out of gas.

Comments?


-- Nolan Dalla

 

[loophole]

sorry nolan, i don't maintain any data bases, so i'm no help there, but i do have some thoughts on tourney play on consecutive days. initially, i check and see whether one team has the advantage of a bye. next, i compare the teams' rotations and minutes played of key players. if i find one team has a distinct advantage in this category, i then look and see if the vegas line has adjusted for this factor as compared to the "expected line," which i derive using lines computed from rpi and massey rankings. if i see a significance difference in minutes played but no corresponding line adjustment, then i have a play.

on a side note, i find the massey numbers to be much more reliable in handicapping end of year tourneys as opposed to games in season. not only are the numbers now supported by a season's worth of data, but you do not have to account for the home court variable, which is always the most speculative and unpredictable variable in such a system.

massey-based plays, or plays based on varience between the masssey line and the vegas line have alwys performed well for me in post season play. while you must adjust for unaccounted for variables, such as consecutive day play as set out above, or the absence of a key player, you can easily spot where the vegas lines are out of whack. it is especially instuctive in close games where popular teams are "false favorites". yesterday this system gave me ga tech and utep. as the line grows to double digits, it becomes less predictive.

i'll try to get some of these plays up today. i haven't been posting this week due to time constraints. just bought a '71 olds cutlass convertible and i've been cleaning up my garage and getting my shop set up for the restoration process to come, so i've been neglectful to the forum. feel kinda bad about it too as i've had a very good week and hate it when i don't get a chance to post it up.

 

[gsp]

Nolan, the obvious thing that comes to mind is that if a team is playing a fourth game they have come into the tourn as one of the weaker teams and are usually playing one of the stronger teams. It also seems to me that the kids today have spent more time in the weight room and not enough time on stamina. The days of five kids playing almost all the min in a tour and not getting tired are gone. The great UCLA teams played their five best players until the game was decided. If they brought someone in off the bench it was because of fouls or one of the starters was having a bad game. And they had a second five that was better than most teams they played. This has nothing to do with your question but I think most Coachs today over-use their bench. That's the main reason that a team that is red hot one min can't throw it in the ocean two minutes later. I was watching a game yesterday where a kid hit three baskets in about a min and for no apparent reason was taken out of the game. The team immediately let a 12 point lead become a 3 points lead. Why the substitution? The coach was afraid the kid was going to get tired and it was time for him to rest. I go with the better coach in the tourn game and that's not always the coach with the biggest name. Good luck