Question about picking lines... Comments Welcome...

[Jayhawk_Thor]

I have switched almost all of my online money to Pinnacle, which I think is the best online sports book (in my experiance)...

For those of you that haven't played on this site, Pinnacle allows you to choose between 5 differant lines, with varying degrees of vig.

So for instance, this evenings UAB-Memphis game, I had the choice to take:

UAB +5 (-120)
UAB +4.5 (-112)
UAB +4 (-104)
UAB +3.5 (+104)
UAB +3 (+112)

I am guessing on the vig, I don't remember specifically, but you get the point. I took UAB +3.

So instead of betting 104/100 to get +4 (which was the line at the time, and for most of the evening), I bet 100/112.

Here is my question: In almost every game, wouldn't it be smartest to give the extra point and take the additional +16 (or whatever the final number is) in vig? Think about it, it is common knowledge that buying points is a big losing proposition in the long wrong, because you are giving 10% or so to get an extra half point/point. So wouldn't it stand to reason that GAINING the extra 10% on EVERY winning bet would be a winning proposition?

I have been trying this out for the last week, and the extra point that I have given has not come into play once, in something like 25 plays.

I realize that I will take a 'beat' that I wouldn't have, every so often by giving an extra point. But since I believe this will happen less than once every 15 plays or so, doesn't this give me a positive expectation for winning?

Not trying to make an arguement for it, although it appears I have done that, I am honestly curious if anyone else has tried this over a long period of time and if this has a positive expectation over the long run... and if so, why don't more people do it?

If there has been discussion about this before, I apologize, I haven't seen it...

Curious to hear opinions... Thanks.

 

[payne034]

Personally I always buy the hook. To me it is worth that little extra juice to get because you never know know when it will come in handy. That unexpected 3 at the buzzard or those 2 missed free throws to get the win instead of the loss. But you never know because on any given night, it could be a teams night to win or in our sake cover.

 

[Jayhawk_Thor]

Payne, do you realize on every winning wager what you are giving up?

To buy the UAB line up to 4.5, you would have had to have 8% lopped off your win, and of course the half point didn't come into play (it usually does not).

I can sometimes understand this in football, IE going from 3.5 to 3, or 3 to 2.5, where there is a decent chance the score will end up at a specific number, but in hoops... It is a big losing proposition in the end... Definately don't mean to be harsh, but I think that is proven... If you count up all your wins in the last month and add on the extra $ you would have made without buying the hook, and then took the total amount of wins from bets where it made a differance, I imagine the first number would be at least twice as big... probably much higher...

Anyhow, thanks for the comment, just trying to stir some debate... I think vig is most important aspect of sports betting that nobody really talks about...

 

[gman2]

selling points (more specifically a half point) is one of the best kept secrets in sports betting. those who buy points might as well be donating money to the books. one thing ive noticed is that you very rarely come across truly 'good' cappers who buy points. a lot of the people who buy points are those who don't have a lot of confidence or logic behind what they are betting. they're just in it for the action. selling a half point can be incredibly profitable over time. it not only wins you more on your winning bets, but it also SAVES you money on your losing bets.

 

[Jayhawk_Thor]

Gman... wow, thanks...

This is what I had assumed just from my very limited first-hand experiance, but having someone with your experiance say that really leads me to believe it...

I have noticed in the last months my profits seem "healthier," on almost every game.

What I have been doing is selling a half point if the line is in between two numbers, and a full point of it is set at a number.

For instance, using my same example with UAB, I "sold" a full point down to +3 (when it was at +4). However, if the line had been at +3.5 (-108) when I made my wager, I would have only sold the half. I figure that I can still experiance the huge benefit of the vastly reduced vig, while also giving myself a chance to push on the off chance that the game comes right down around the line. I imagine it would probably be more profitable to sell the full point each and every time, and maybe that is something I will experiment with over the next month...

Gman, is this something you do regularly? It kind of shocks me that I haven't heard about this before, and I just kind of stumbled upon it on my own...

Also, why would a book such as Pinnacle allow for a gambler to get away with altering the line just enough so that he/she will never have to pay a cent of vig (and in most cases actually be receiving 101+) and incurring the very smallest of risk on the actual wager itself?

One of the best kept secrets, indeed. Despite being apart of this forum for two years (reading and posting) and reading a handful of sports-betting books, I have never heard about this practice...

I wonder why this is...?

 

[Dr. Fade]

selling points (more specifically a half point) is one of the best kept secrets in sports betting. those who buy points might as well be donating money to the books. one thing ive noticed is that you very rarely come across truly 'good' cappers who buy points. a lot of the people who buy points are those who don't have a lot of confidence or logic behind what they are betting. they're just in it for the action. selling a half point can be incredibly profitable over time. it not only wins you more on your winning bets, but it also SAVES you money on your losing bets.

I'll have to disagree. Certainly confidence has zero to do with the logic of buying points. I guess if it did your most likely an idiot and should refrain from wagering immediately. More often than not the majority of players buying a 1/2 or a point are sharp players looking to middle from overnight #'s or weak books. Personally I always buy a 1/2 on any college hoop line between 1.5 and 3.5. This has proven to be a profitable move thus far in games I have played. 1 and 10 to push. I can't tell you how many times I was happy I bought a half w/1 min left.

 

[Jayhawk_Thor]

Fade, I am surprised you would be the kind of player that would buy half points.

I am even more surprised that you would claim that 1 in 10 pushes. C'mon man. If 1 in 30 pushed, I would be surprised.

Giving away 10% of your winnings everytime you win is a sure fire (and many times documented) way of guarenteeing a lifetime of losing... because, really, who is a good enough capper to overcome the 10% that Vegas has on you plus the 10% you are giving them just for a half-point? Instead of having to hit 52.5% you now have to hit a number much higher than that.

But I don't really want to talk about buying points, that has been discusses ad-nauseum.

Does anyone else sell points? Researched this? Really looking forward to getting some information on this topic, but I am heading to bed right now, so I guess I will have to wait until this afternoon to see what you guys come up with...

Thanks in advance...

 

[heleanth]

The only way to win betting basketball, or any sport for that matter, is to find some kind of system that works consistently over time and use that only.

The fact of the matter is that the book is going to come out ahead if factor in only the results of buying or selling points. OTHERWISE THEY WOULDN'T DO IT!!!!

In my opinion, if you feel the need to buy a half point, you should not make the bet.

GL to all.

I

 

[Dr. Maddog]

Gman or Jay,
what are your thoughts on playing a 1 pt dog on the ML intead of getting the pt. and risking the juice?
Thanks

 

[gman2]

maddog:

my philosophy is that every underdog in basketball with a line of 2 or less should always be played on the moneyline. and in football every underdog of 2.5 or less should be played on the moneyline. you will save a ton of money on your losses (no juice) and every win will have roughly 10% or 20% added to it because of the moneyline odds. of course there will be one time in a season where you might somehow lose an underdog of (+1.5) when they lose 69-68 and you played them on the moneyline. but the money you will have gained/saved up to that point will make up for it.

 

[Sun Tzu]

If you feel the need to buy points it is a game you shouldnt be playing. Period.

 

[bej0101]

nice info thanks

 

[Jayhawk_Thor]

Maddog-

I completely agree with Gman, and to take it a step further, if in basketball I like a 1 point dog, for instance last week when Baylor hosted Texas Tech, I will sell the it the other way, to make Baylor a 1 point favorite.

The moneyline was nice, but I am getting another 8-10% just to have the "risk" of pushing were Baylor to only win by a point... Great money expectancy over the long run (and short).

 

[blgstocks]

excellent write up jayhawk, and some good contributions by gman.

I have a comment and a question, first i think it would definitely be profitable to sell points in less covered games, but the well covered games tend to have extra sharp lines. More often than not i see line makers closer on UCONN and UNC games than on Citadel or AR little rock

Jayhawk where can you give points in pinny, i have a pinny account and havent really explored it.

 

[Jayhawk_Thor]

BLG-

When you make your wager, they have a scroll bar with the line next to the team you pick. Just click on it and the five lines will show, a point in either direction...

This continues to be hugely profitable for me... in the last three weeks of giving a half point/point on almost all of my wagers (80% or so) I have only pushed on one game, and lost none that I should have won (the push was in last nights Celtic-Pacer game), and of course I am getting 8-16% more return on every single win, as well as being able to wager less on losses.

This is definately something that I am shocked isn't discussed/used more...

GL BLG.

 

[nervousTic]

Nice tip Thor - has already made me $50 today!

 

[Jayhawk_Thor]

That is awesome Tic...

Hope everyone starts doing this...