I was close but a little off. Had chance this weekend to ask a old timer. That means older then me and MJ seinor. We used 6 hits. however you could take any player from any two team playing each other. I thought for sure it was just oe team. I stand corrected. So Dodgers playing Mets use any of there players. It was not a easy play not many I believe did it. I know I only did a few times. And it's so darn long ago. I was also told payoff was 7 to 1. Still much like YYZ said. It sounds so easy I just have to pick a three teamer. How fast we learn some times. I would book it and reap the rewards.
Question For Baseball fans.. Especially over 40
- Thread starter SmashMouth
- Start date
SmashMouth said:
Smash,
Will any of your co-workers read this thread? If not, I can post what their expected return on the dollar is for your bonus bet.
Ok, here is what I came up with. Unless I made a math error, you might want to rework your payouts.
Given the following parameters:
1. .320 hitters
2. 12 total ABs per night
your bettors are expected to lose 9 cents on the dollar. BUT.....
.320 might be a low estimate since the top 3 hitters in the league are usually better than .320. Also, 12 ABs also might be alow estimate, both of which make it better for the bettor.
If you assume 13 ABs per night between the 3 hitters (which I dont think is a stretch), then your bettors are expected to win 35 cents on the dollar.
If .320 is in fact a conservative estimate from the bookie's point of view and 13 ABs is very realistic, then you will want to adjust your payouts.
Given the following parameters:
1. .320 hitters
2. 12 total ABs per night
your bettors are expected to lose 9 cents on the dollar. BUT.....
.320 might be a low estimate since the top 3 hitters in the league are usually better than .320. Also, 12 ABs also might be alow estimate, both of which make it better for the bettor.
If you assume 13 ABs per night between the 3 hitters (which I dont think is a stretch), then your bettors are expected to win 35 cents on the dollar.
If .320 is in fact a conservative estimate from the bookie's point of view and 13 ABs is very realistic, then you will want to adjust your payouts.
How would you structure it?? Any help you offer is greatly appreciated. Am I better off Just giving the flat payoff?? Or just lowering the odds a little.
SmashMouth said:
I can easily generate a spread sheet when I get home from work to compute the expected return based on whatever payouts we toy around with.
I just need to know the answers to the following questions first though.
1. Is .320 a good estimate, if not what average do you want to use to generate the numbers?
2. How many ABs do you want to use? I think 12 is the minimum, but 14 may be pushing it. We can stick with 13 if you want. Let me know what you think.
3. What expected return are you shooting for? 9 cents on the dollar was pretty good. That is equivalent I think to laying -118 on a straight bet. But you might want them to have a negative return of 5 cents or 10 cents, its your call.
Give me those 3 parameters and when I get home I'll play with the spreadsheet and post later tonight what the payouts would be.
I would say 320 is a good number. The thing is lets say there are 15 legitimate 320 hitters giver or take. If one is going against a top flight pitcher noone will use them. That narrows the field down.
I would say 13 is good number of at bats.
I really think with the penalties on the bonus bet stucture I'm protecting the house sufficiently.. I think most guys will go for the safe 4-1 bet. Which we establish true odds at 6 or 7 to 1.
I think it's the perfect example of a better having to many options out there to make a good bet.
9 cents on the dollar doesn't sound like much of a return. We'll have to see. I really appreciate your time on this.
I would say 13 is good number of at bats.
I really think with the penalties on the bonus bet stucture I'm protecting the house sufficiently.. I think most guys will go for the safe 4-1 bet. Which we establish true odds at 6 or 7 to 1.
I think it's the perfect example of a better having to many options out there to make a good bet.
9 cents on the dollar doesn't sound like much of a return. We'll have to see. I really appreciate your time on this.
.320 don't get 4 at bats on a lot of nights. They get walked on some of those. (Advantage for book)
YYZ makes a good point. Given that it seems 12 ABs is sufficient to run the numbers in your favor. Here is what I came up with.
0-2 hits bettor loses 2 units
3 hits bettor loses 1.5 units
4 hits bettor loses 1 unit
5 hits bettor wins 1 unit
6 hits bettor wins 4 units
7 hits bettor wins 5 units
8 hits bettor wins 8 units
9+ hits bettor wins 10 units
This gives the bettor an expected loss of 10 cents on the dollar.
Couple things to keep in mind.
1. Lowering the payout on the 8 and over doesnt change the expected loss that much since those events arent going to happen very often (about 1 chance in 70).
2. Raising the loss from 2 to 3 units on say the 0 or 1 hits will tilt the return in your favor alot more, but you might scare alot of bettor off with a -3 units loss. I think its better to entice them with +10 units on an event that is much more rare.
3. You can call this game "keno-baseball"
0-2 hits bettor loses 2 units
3 hits bettor loses 1.5 units
4 hits bettor loses 1 unit
5 hits bettor wins 1 unit
6 hits bettor wins 4 units
7 hits bettor wins 5 units
8 hits bettor wins 8 units
9+ hits bettor wins 10 units
This gives the bettor an expected loss of 10 cents on the dollar.
Couple things to keep in mind.
1. Lowering the payout on the 8 and over doesnt change the expected loss that much since those events arent going to happen very often (about 1 chance in 70).
2. Raising the loss from 2 to 3 units on say the 0 or 1 hits will tilt the return in your favor alot more, but you might scare alot of bettor off with a -3 units loss. I think its better to entice them with +10 units on an event that is much more rare.
3. You can call this game "keno-baseball"
Koty's Dad Thanks for all your help on this. I'm thinking about hiring you on as a consultant or bringing you in as aground floor investor. Jack has my email if you are interested in talking more about this. Thanks a again
Jack has my email if you are interested in talking more about this. Thanks a againSmash,
my hotmail address is the same as my name here....drop me a line, would be interested in hearing what you have to say.
my hotmail address is the same as my name here....drop me a line, would be interested in hearing what you have to say.
lmao sent out an email to the guys in my two fantasy leagues and to the 25 guys in my football pool at work. Got 37 responses saying they are in!!! This is going to be huge.
Looks like a possible cigar bet in the making, do I get 5 cigars to 1? Can I get 25-1 if I only pick 2 players?
Penguinfan
Penguinfan
Here was the email sent to my players. I can't tell you the amount of interest this thing. Just wanted to keep you guys posted. It looks like I'll have at least 25 consistent players and another 30 sporatic players.
The feedback on this thing has been really big. For those of you hearing about this for the first time, This is the deal.
You pick any 3 hitters you want for the days baseball games. If they combine for 6 hits you win.
There are two ways to win.
1) Flat. Which means you if your 3 hitters get the 6 hits or more you get 3 points for every 1 you bet. If they fail to get the 6 hits you lose the amount of points you risked.
2) Or you can play bonus. This is for the real degenerates.
If your 3 hitters get exactly
6 hits= 4 units for each that you risk
7 hits= 5 units for each you risk
8 hits = 7 units for each you risk
9 hits = 9 units for each you risk
10 or more 12 units for each you risk
However with those bonuses their has to be some risk involved.
If your hitters get only
4 or 5 hits you lose 1 unit for each you put up.
2 or 3 hits you lose 2 units for each you put up.
0 0r 1 hits you lose 3 units for each you put up.
If one of your players does not play for any reason, you get his stats in the next game he plays.
Working on Parlay odds and teasers also.
It will be you against the house. Plays will range from 2 to 20 points to start.
You can play as often or infrequently as you want.
If you know anyone else interested in this let me know
The feedback on this thing has been really big. For those of you hearing about this for the first time, This is the deal.
You pick any 3 hitters you want for the days baseball games. If they combine for 6 hits you win.
There are two ways to win.
1) Flat. Which means you if your 3 hitters get the 6 hits or more you get 3 points for every 1 you bet. If they fail to get the 6 hits you lose the amount of points you risked.
2) Or you can play bonus. This is for the real degenerates.
If your 3 hitters get exactly
6 hits= 4 units for each that you risk
7 hits= 5 units for each you risk
8 hits = 7 units for each you risk
9 hits = 9 units for each you risk
10 or more 12 units for each you risk
However with those bonuses their has to be some risk involved.
If your hitters get only
4 or 5 hits you lose 1 unit for each you put up.
2 or 3 hits you lose 2 units for each you put up.
0 0r 1 hits you lose 3 units for each you put up.
If one of your players does not play for any reason, you get his stats in the next game he plays.
Working on Parlay odds and teasers also.
It will be you against the house. Plays will range from 2 to 20 points to start.
You can play as often or infrequently as you want.
If you know anyone else interested in this let me know
