question for everybody on sharps and public

[Coach Woody]

I have seen on here people say the sharps are playing one side or the public is playing a side at this percent.

I know what these are but where or how do you find this information...............

Especially the Sharps side???????

Thanks in adavance......

One last thing I know that Stu Fiener or JHonny de Marco and the like are not the sharps...... they are the con-artists.....fade them more then not....

 

[hogman14]

There are some sites that display "public" info, or "consensus info." As for the sharps, some of it is speculation, get a site that updates odds, that you have to pay for, and then follow the late, like 1-5 min. before game action on the game, and follow that line action. Good example, Atlanta went from +1 to -2 Sunday, and it all seemed to happen around 12:45. Pros will get on very late sometimes, so no one follows their steam.

GL.

 

[Coach Woody]

Last minute line changes I can see...........

How about early pounding of a game........does that show the same thing or is it a little different???

 

[atscapper]

Last minute line changes I can see...........

How about early pounding of a game........does that show the same thing or is it a little different???

I like to see what the line does when it first comes out, I don't know many people personally that bet games that far in advance. As far as the NFL goes, I have learned through my own demise that late money is dead money. Favorites that get pounded just prior to kickoff more than not are sure losers. However I have gotten burnt many times on reading line moves wrong, when I thought I had the winner to begin with. I don't believe the numbers some of these sites put out on %'s are totally correct sometimes, maybe even most of the time and I sure as hell don't believe that books set a line to get even action on both sides, biggest lie in gambling if you ask me. Public perception is how the books win day in and day out, not from the juice that is collected when the bets are split on a game. Personally I like to see how the line is set and who most of the people in gambling forums are on, if it looks to good to be true it probably is. But to pick winners night in and night out I truly feel you have to watch as many of the teams play as you can, getting a feel for how they are playing is vital. Good Luck.

 

[hogman14]

That's tough to tell who's getting to the game first. Common misconception (IMO) is that the "sharps" bet the line down (or up) before the public gets to it. I know it was a real old school thing for Vegas to allow certain players to play the lines before they are hung for the public, but there are so many outs for players now, mainly online....therefore it's really not as if someone is getting to the line before any Joe. Pros and Joes, w/the advent of online gambling, seem to now have equal stake. Another example, and I look to pro foots again, because around 6:30-7 on Sunday if I'm still sober enough, I'll line the following weeks games. Do this for a while, and you'll get a pretty good handle on where the action may or may not be. I marked the Pats as a 3.5 choice over Miami, and early line at pinny was 3. This was quickly hammered to 3.5. This is not to say I'm an oddsmaker, but the 3 was available, and to move off of that generally took lopsided action. This is going to sound like I'm contradicting myself, but in steam bets, the line goes one way, til the Pros feel they've gotten a good enough price, then hammer the other side.

Ex...just an ex, $$$ is not even a guestamite
Opener NEW ENGLAND -3.
50K bet on NE -3 (pro/public $$), 10K on Miami +3(Pro/public)
Line NE -3.5
(remember, all speculation here)
Public starts pounding the pats
Pros bet miami at +3.5
Public continues to bet the pats.

Pros end up getting off the 3, and have little invested to buy the hook. when playing for their kind of $$$, paying small 10s of 1000s for a hook is nothing....

Still, very hard to interpret line moves. Especially in pro sports.

Maybe that clears it up, maybe it makes it even more difficult to understand.

gl nonetheless

 

[RIGHT SIDE]

I feel the most important line is the "opening line" in games. What the line is originally set at can tell you a lot sometimes....I personally don't look into what the line does throughout the day.

 

[Coach Woody]

I can see how line movements exspecially when read wrong can cause major mistakes.............

I know I don't have time to watch every game played...........Do see alot of NFL, many NBA, but add in college and there is no way.............

I have heard that sharpshave computer systems and the alike that help determine the spread....bet when there is a big difference in the spread.....many times betting opposite the public opinion...........

I know that if I bet opposite the way I have thought over my life time I would be up alot more money.....................................

I have seen where people have said sharp money is going on a team........I guess it is speculation on line movemnet..................

 

[hogman14]

I can see how line movements exspecially when read wrong can cause major mistakes.............

I know I don't have time to watch every game played...........Do see alot of NFL, many NBA, but add in college and there is no way.............

I have heard that sharpshave computer systems and the alike that help determine the spread....bet when there is a big difference in the spread.....many times betting opposite the public opinion...........

I know that if I bet opposite the way I have thought over my life time I would be up alot more money.....................................

I have seen where people have said sharp money is going on a team........I guess it is speculation on line movemnet..................

The computers do a lot of the leg work in producing a number, but as stated by atscapper, public perception is huge. Look at the GMEN last week. The computer would probably have spit out a higher number than 3.5, def higer than the closing price of 3 on the Pokies...public opinion says Dallas, "sharps, pros, etc" says NYG.

Main game where i got burned by line movement, ravens/gmen superbowl. opened around 1.5 I think, and bet to 3, suggesting Gmen were the play. See how that worked out....

Agree w/ats about vegas not wanting even $$$, if that were the case, the lines would be points off many games week in and week out. Also agree about the %%% sites. Who knows how accurate they are, I use them in my capping on certain things....added college hoop, and nba totals....i have been burned in the nfl w/this system this year, although in past yrs it has made money, and i guess has come around as of late.

 

[Coach Woody]

So again there is no sure way of finding out this info????? I am sure there is

I think figuring out where Vegas wants your m0oney and going opposite is probably a long run win.................agaisnt public opinion against where money is flowing and if you combine that with how well you can break down a game????

 

[atscapper]

So again there is no sure way of finding out this info????? I am sure there is

If there was I am sure we all would be living in the Cayman Islands.

 

[jr11]

One needs to find where the money is not the consensus. I often check various different website for betting percentages, but that doesn't mean sh-t.

We all tend to say well Team A on X web-site is at 66%, you think the house needs Team B. However, and to use a small number, 2/3 of those betters may play the game for a dollar and the other 1/3 plays it for a dime....house would then need Team A.

I often think and this worked last night for me, Gonzaga opens at -3.5 against WSU, and my local line here closed at -2.5. With that said, they wasn't the squares moving that number down with WSU action. IMO, that was the sharps and I followed.

This is a good thread started...

jr11

 

[Coach Woody]

I was looking at the Knicks tonight.....

Just my opinion but Knicks have won a couple at home and public will probably be on them....

Washington is not as popular team so I think.....

I could be way wrong on public opinion but does this make sense to anybody?????

Wash +1 seems like the smart play to me

 

[gsp]

I probably should keep my mouth shut on this subject but there's not much in cappin I haven't looked at over the years. If you have followed me over the years you know I don't like Las Vegas helping me. That means I don't want my fav going down or my dog going up. In following lines the first thing is to develope a Vegas mentality. They are the best there is at setting lines. Not only do they consider the teams but they also add in things like public perception. For instance, they know the game is a pk but the public thinks team A is better than team B so they set the line at 3' which gives the public confidence that team A is better than team B. This does two things. It encourages the team A backers and discourages the team B backers. When team B wins by a fieldgoal everybody but Vegas is surprised.

A few years ago one of the top totals cappers in the NBA here at Jack's challenged me. Going into the All Star break we would both cap the totals in all the games the first day after the break and post what we though the lines would be. He and I were within 1 of each other in all but one game. I was 10 points higher than he was. He immediately wanted to know where I got that extra 10 points from. Both teams had been playing tough d and scoring very little. Their last head to head was 15 points under what it capped, played on team B's floor. This game was on team A's floor coming out of the AS break. What most people didn't pay attention to was that team A was coming off a strech where they were on the road almost all the time. Their coach would make them play really tough d on the road but turn them lose at home plus both teams would be a little loose after the break. I figured that even the true line would look high to the public so Las Vegas might even encourage them to go under by adding 10. I told everyone that if Veges was close to my line I would be on the over. They were right on my line and I covered by 20.

Line movement is a totally different ball game. Don't go by just one book. About the time you think you've found something they'll change on you. I like a site like BG that is basically a composite of a lot of sites. I've found over the years that every year there's a group somewhere that places their bets at around the same time every day. Each year it changes. They play only a couple of games a day but they move the line with their bets and they scatter their bets. Who ever they are, they are deadly. A lot of line movement seems to mean absolutely nothing.

Every year I learn something new and every rule change changes everything I know. So, if you think you've got figured out, you probably don't.

Good luck everyone

 

[BleedDodgerBlue]

you won't find smart money plays. not without connections. those guys are mum for the most part. you can analyze movement all you want, but are clueless if you don't know what to look for.

it changes every year, and i agree with gsp that there is timing patterns during the day.

be wary of line movements that go down over night and then shoot up as soon as the limits raise. they are just setting up numbers. happened a lot in the nba last year, but not so much this year. example, they like team a at -4 and keep betting team b at +4.5 until they move the line and then steam at -4.

the real sharps and there are so few its scary manipulate the line to what they want. smart books don't move the line on wagers or money spent. they move the line on their smart customers. they trust them and have their history. but even sharps only hit 60% at best ats. so be wary. but they won't move a number on 500 $100 bets, but will move it on a 1k or higher bet of a sharp even though they are unbalanced.

different books do different things. if you want to see where the public is just look at square books with low limits like sia. they move on volume, not sharp and plenty of times their numbers are so far off its scary. but low limits and they move solely on action. bodgog and others are like this too.

i recommend michael koniks new book smart money to anyone interested in sharps and their inner circle. great read and talks a ton about line manipulation and getting booted for losing at books but playing sharp plays.


gl

 

[IntenseOperator]

I listen to a lot of overnight radio and I've talked about this guy before. Todd Wright use to be on ESPN. He's now with the other big syndicated sports outlet (Sporting News Radio I think) and is on 10pm to 2 am give or take an hour. Once a week or so he has on a linesmaker from one of the Vegas casinos (I can't remember which) by the name of Jay Cornegay (spelling?). He's a real down to earth guy. Earlier this week they each went over what they thought the lines for the bowl games should be. Phenomenal show. Todd is pretty dam sharp himself. Generally gives out one bowl game each year when he thinks the dog is going to surprise people. He's not big on gambling talk as far as betting, just likes to talk a lot about spreads and were teams are.

 

[atscapper]

3 of the smartest guys I have ever seen posting on these forums ever, all commenting right in a row. You started a good thread here...

 

[Coach Woody]

Well I am lad I could get the ball rolling.......

Just seems like an interesting subject with sharps and public and vegas........

Seems like three different groups with three different ideas...............the key is finding that loop so your more like vegas and less like the average joe.

 

[EliteLegends]

All this might be :bs: .... i dunno im high so if it
doesnt make sense , just stop reading it


i think the best bet besides understanding stats and line movements and all other kinds of strategy
is just watching the teams like someone mentioned in another thread ....

you know how sometimes your intuition will tell you
if a dog is gonna win or if somebody coming off of a losing streak will break it etc..

well by actually watching these teams you get a better grip on how they play and what to expect from them .... its alot different than just watching some playbyplay

example .... think of your favorite team
now when you think of gambling on your favorite
team you will obviously think the odds are in your
favor with this particular team because 9 times out of 10 you know more about THIS team than all of the other teams .... why ? because you make sure
you watch all of their games , and you know everything about them ...

why cant this apply to the sport as a whole ?
of course you wont be right all of the time or probably even 65% of the time but i do honestly
think that by watching the games you have a better chance the next time around this team plays because you have a better feel for how they have been playing lately

now obviously this idea/opinion is handicapped by
the fact that most people only have 1 or 2 games on a night where they live so it can only go so far .... but im thinking about getting nba and nfl ticket
record all of the games on dvr , watch them and take whatever i want from them

sounds like another job to me but if it works it'd worth it



i understand this is not ground breaking by any means , its just my opinion and something i have been thinking about lately

peace EL :

 

[Coach Woody]

to bring this back to the top and

I was right I think on that Knicks play.....Wash not as a popular public play....Knicks win a couple at home and now public thinks they are a good team..... Won money for me last night......

 

[Coach Woody]

Another thought for today and the line that Vegas likes you to think it the right number.....

No Shaq.....Heat playing on the road agian.....Plyaing like crap...... 4-6 last 10 2-5 out of confernce..... 4-4 on the road.....

Sactown usually looked at as a good team from the west.....strong conference the west.....
6-3 at home ......3-2 out of conference.......

Sactown -5 what does that tell us.......One of two things either Miami is wanted becasue public hasn't figured out that they are not playing goo ball or public thinks that Sactown and the west are that much better........................

I am doing the double reverse thinking here and taking Miami +5

What the hell do I know though I was trying to start a good thread and trying to find sharp money and public money and how to see where money is going and started a whole new idea on looking at numbers..............................

If nothing else you all have made me think....
Thanks and more commets would be great....