First of all, thanks for all the work. I was wondering if you knew what the results would be for the extra long homestand (or roadtrip) if you started betting over (or under) from game one and chased until it hit...instead of waiting for the result of game one and then going the other way......
Question for LOB
- Thread starter McVegas
- Start date
McVegas,
funny you should ask that...
I finished compiling all that info for ALL HOMESTANDS of 6gms or longer...
I have NOT broken it down to the XL homestands only... but can do that over the next few days, I don't think it will affect things much, but we'll see.
When I reviewed the RoadTrips (6 gms or longer) I looked at...
*hitting on the original totals system...
*then re-starting in a XL Roadtrip (and the result) ONLY if they had 6 gms or more remaining....
I do NOT have these things printed out... (cuz it would take alot of paper and ink!) so I pulled them off by hand. I cannot easily refer to them...
For all the Home Series... 6 gms or more
I did handwrite out the "Ov" and "Un" for each team for 3 yrs, and then
*went thru and totaled up record using the original Hm Totals system,
*re-starts for XL homestands (if 6 or more gms left)...
*how many gms it took to hit an over in each series...
*how many gms it took to hit an under in each series...
*still working on runlines, and doesnt look that strong for all homestands, is better for XL homestands, but not finished...
I have identified what I consider "Home Under" or "Home Over" Teams... some tms really don't fit in anywhere... a couple qualify as both.
As each home series begins, I will state when I am starting a team with an OVER or UNDER...
It has taken alot of work to do this... and I don't know any other way than doing this all by hand...
at this point, I'm not going to do the road series, it would take more time than I'm looking to spend...
You can tell by the posts I write, that I've got my hands full w/record-keeping and posting for madjack's....
:director: Here is the website I used for this info...
please do not post direct links to pay sites:admin
if anyone wants to go in and do research for the Long Road Series (of 6 gms or longer) that'd be great!!
BoL~LoB :SIB
funny you should ask that...
I finished compiling all that info for ALL HOMESTANDS of 6gms or longer...
I have NOT broken it down to the XL homestands only... but can do that over the next few days, I don't think it will affect things much, but we'll see.
When I reviewed the RoadTrips (6 gms or longer) I looked at...
*hitting on the original totals system...
*then re-starting in a XL Roadtrip (and the result) ONLY if they had 6 gms or more remaining....
I do NOT have these things printed out... (cuz it would take alot of paper and ink!) so I pulled them off by hand. I cannot easily refer to them...
For all the Home Series... 6 gms or more
I did handwrite out the "Ov" and "Un" for each team for 3 yrs, and then
*went thru and totaled up record using the original Hm Totals system,
*re-starts for XL homestands (if 6 or more gms left)...
*how many gms it took to hit an over in each series...
*how many gms it took to hit an under in each series...
*still working on runlines, and doesnt look that strong for all homestands, is better for XL homestands, but not finished...
I have identified what I consider "Home Under" or "Home Over" Teams... some tms really don't fit in anywhere... a couple qualify as both.
As each home series begins, I will state when I am starting a team with an OVER or UNDER...
It has taken alot of work to do this... and I don't know any other way than doing this all by hand...
at this point, I'm not going to do the road series, it would take more time than I'm looking to spend...
You can tell by the posts I write, that I've got my hands full w/record-keeping and posting for madjack's....
:director: Here is the website I used for this info...
please do not post direct links to pay sites:admin
if anyone wants to go in and do research for the Long Road Series (of 6 gms or longer) that'd be great!!
BoL~LoB :SIB
Last year if a team had a trend of going over or
under, I would start gm 1 w/ that trend. I was thinking, LOB, that you had done that on some
series as well.
And I don't know if this applies or helps, but axp
and his crew seem to know how to set up a series
of queries using symbols that help them research a
specific trend or stat. Don't know what database
they use. If it could help you, I'm sure you could
use the time savings. Thanks again for what you do.
under, I would start gm 1 w/ that trend. I was thinking, LOB, that you had done that on some
series as well.
And I don't know if this applies or helps, but axp
and his crew seem to know how to set up a series
of queries using symbols that help them research a
specific trend or stat. Don't know what database
they use. If it could help you, I'm sure you could
use the time savings. Thanks again for what you do.
ces,
first off, yes... last season there were times I started a series from gm 1 to either go over or under...
but...
those times were not based on 3yrs worth of history, just how it looked to me last season... it worked sometimes lol
Not sure if what axp and friends use would help or not, but maybe?
I went thru all their homestands (of 6gms or more) and charted on what # game they had their first over, then on what # game they went under...
NOTTT searching for the total # of overs or unders for a team at home... but when they reached it during any homestand of 6 gms or longer.
Example:
DODGERS... (one of the very strongest "OVER" teams at home)
In 31 homestands over 3 yrs...
Gm 1 == 20 times OVER in 1st gm
Gm 2 == 8 times OVER (of the 11 remaining)
Gm 3 == 1
Gm 4 == 1
Gm 5 == 0
Gm 6 == 1 (2006)
ASTROS... very strong UNDER tm at home...
Reached an UNDER within the first 4 gms at home all 31 times in last 3 season...(21-3-6-1)
*If game 1 tied the total, I counted the next gm as game 1
So for Dodgers,
If you gave it a 3 bet chase... you'd have 29 units of wins, and say 15 units of loss... (+14 units)
ASTROS...
You'd have 30 units of wins and say 8 in losses... (+22 units!!)
FYI, some teams like Dodgers are better to stop after 2 gms, but to be consistent we figured it at taking it out 3 bets...
and over 3 yr period, it was above 200 units when taking the 15 that are good at overs, and 11 good at unders, 2 that are good at both, and 2 that are not consistent at either.
Some only a few units ahead, others a little better...
Works for Me!
Now I have this info for all teams at home... it'd be nice to know how they fared on the road in the long homestands...
I'm open to hearing from anyone (axp?) about accessing this w/o having to do it manually...
Also...
It's possible that the last 3 yrs are an aberration... I don't know.
Maybe it's a totally accurate representation of how the #'s fall into place, maybe not.
It'd be nice to have a bit longer reference base, but I'm not doing it now...maybe it would all total out about the same?? :shrug:
Maybe there were some errors when doing all this by hand? I don't know.
Its possible... I'm not perfect, but I'm told I'm kinda cute!... :shrug:
:director: I do know this...
*I'm going to ride these systems fer awhile... I'm pretty sure they won't go completely in the tank...
*The research shows the stretches of all overs or all unders don't hardly ever go past #7 (only went to bet #8 once... I think lol)
*You can always wait until a team has a 4 or 5 gm stretch that way at home, and then start it up... be willing to take it to 3 bets, it should win, just won't have as many plays...
Appreciate all the feedback, hope we ALL win!
I know I won't usually have as much time as today to type here... and I will be out having fun in the sun quite a bit!
I hope those that care and understand the systems, can help answer questions for those that will inevitably try to join in down the road...
When we're all makin some Ca$h!! wooohoooo!! :00hour :00hour :00hour
BoL~LoB :SIB
first off, yes... last season there were times I started a series from gm 1 to either go over or under...
but...
those times were not based on 3yrs worth of history, just how it looked to me last season... it worked sometimes lol
Not sure if what axp and friends use would help or not, but maybe?
I went thru all their homestands (of 6gms or more) and charted on what # game they had their first over, then on what # game they went under...
NOTTT searching for the total # of overs or unders for a team at home... but when they reached it during any homestand of 6 gms or longer.
Example:
DODGERS... (one of the very strongest "OVER" teams at home)
In 31 homestands over 3 yrs...
Gm 1 == 20 times OVER in 1st gm
Gm 2 == 8 times OVER (of the 11 remaining)
Gm 3 == 1
Gm 4 == 1
Gm 5 == 0
Gm 6 == 1 (2006)
ASTROS... very strong UNDER tm at home...
Reached an UNDER within the first 4 gms at home all 31 times in last 3 season...(21-3-6-1)
*If game 1 tied the total, I counted the next gm as game 1
So for Dodgers,
If you gave it a 3 bet chase... you'd have 29 units of wins, and say 15 units of loss... (+14 units)
ASTROS...
You'd have 30 units of wins and say 8 in losses... (+22 units!!)
FYI, some teams like Dodgers are better to stop after 2 gms, but to be consistent we figured it at taking it out 3 bets...
and over 3 yr period, it was above 200 units when taking the 15 that are good at overs, and 11 good at unders, 2 that are good at both, and 2 that are not consistent at either.
Some only a few units ahead, others a little better...
Works for Me!
Now I have this info for all teams at home... it'd be nice to know how they fared on the road in the long homestands...
I'm open to hearing from anyone (axp?) about accessing this w/o having to do it manually...
Also...
It's possible that the last 3 yrs are an aberration... I don't know.
Maybe it's a totally accurate representation of how the #'s fall into place, maybe not.
It'd be nice to have a bit longer reference base, but I'm not doing it now...maybe it would all total out about the same?? :shrug:
Maybe there were some errors when doing all this by hand? I don't know.
Its possible... I'm not perfect, but I'm told I'm kinda cute!... :shrug:
:director: I do know this...
*I'm going to ride these systems fer awhile... I'm pretty sure they won't go completely in the tank...
*The research shows the stretches of all overs or all unders don't hardly ever go past #7 (only went to bet #8 once... I think lol)
*You can always wait until a team has a 4 or 5 gm stretch that way at home, and then start it up... be willing to take it to 3 bets, it should win, just won't have as many plays...
Appreciate all the feedback, hope we ALL win!
I know I won't usually have as much time as today to type here... and I will be out having fun in the sun quite a bit!
I hope those that care and understand the systems, can help answer questions for those that will inevitably try to join in down the road...
When we're all makin some Ca$h!! wooohoooo!! :00hour :00hour :00hour
BoL~LoB :SIB
