Question to board (futures)

[Scott4USC]

I am sure most know I have a very very large wager on USC to win it all and USC to go undefeated. Others might be sitting in the same situation as me if they took my advice when I posted my futures wager. Or even if they made the wager on their own without my advice. Of course if USC loses this Sat. or FSU/UCLA, then it doesn't matter but I gotta start preparing now. Herbie says pencil in USC/Texas in Rose Bowl. :lol:

If Texas loses and Alabama goes in, I be 100% confident. I am rooting for that scenario! I worry about Texas mainly because of Young and his mobility. Texas is USC's likely opponent. The last 4 teams USC lost too were against QB's who were mobile. :scared None were as mobile as Young (except maybe eli robertson) but most were better passing threats with better passing systems. Therefore I am not 100% confident in USC over Texas. I wasn't 100% confident in USC over OU and hedged small part of it. But I was still confident in USC over OU. I am very confident in USC over Texas. More so than I was USC over OU.

Texas right now is +6.5 -105 over USC in ROSE BOWL Matchup. You can now bet USC "NOT" to win the National Championship at +180 odds. USC is -200 to win the NC.

The question is this. What will the opening line and gameday line on Jan. 4th? All along, I thought USC would be -3 over Texas. I am not so sure now. Pinny has been stable at USC -6.5. I thought for sure Texas $$$ would come in and move the line down. Maybe people are not doubting USC like they used too.

Are there any so called "experts" on this subject matter?

What I am trying to figure out is the value now, Texas +6.5 and +180 USC not winning it all, vs the value if the game actually takes place. (like everyone predicts)

It be real shame for me to bet +180 against USC and then gameday it is +300 against USC. Or +6.5 Texas and gameday +13. Something like that. Or flip around and Texas +3 or +130 vs +6.5 or +180. Maybe the most obvious shame in me losing all that $$$$ because I didn't hedge/middle. I am tempted to ride it out but that isn't the smart thing to do. What if Leinart goes down with injury next 3 games? ( :scared ) Or Young of Texas? (then my bet is gold)

I spent this week capping the game USC/Texas. I have this game fully capped. I am confident how the game plays out. Now I am trying to make an educated guess on if its worth it to hedge.

All opinions welcomed. Nobody knows exactly what to expect in terms of line, but I am sure some can make an educated guess. I would like to here those educated guesses!

*Q TO TEXAS FANS: What is the injury situation for Texas? Have they lost any key starters etc.? Depth issues? I know USC has ton of players injured now but will be healthy Jan. 4th. But USC also lost bunch of players to season ending injury. It fawking sucks.

USC is depleted in the secondary and RB positions. Situation can only get worse from now to Jan. 4th. Can't get better. All other positions should be fine Jan. 4th.

 

[glf163]

This doesnt really answer your question, but, opening 1 & 2 in the BSC standings have never met for the title game, if I remember correctly.

 

[ageecee]

If USC and texas meet the trojans will be at least -10 IMO

 

[scott4]

when it gets to that day take texas + the 6 and hope for usc to win by 1-5 win both ways. usc is just too good and i think the big 12 is overrated. good luck with whatever you do dont always agree with you but you stick to your guns have to like someone with that quality.

 

[BleedDodgerBlue]

Scott,

Texas isn't losing before the rose bowl. Even if young gets hurt they aren't losing. Their title game won't even be a scare. No matter how much i want the bruins or fresno to beat USC that's not happening either.

to answer your question, you do NOTHING now. You made the bet, live with it at least for the season.

Current line is 6.5 at most shops. It certainly won't go down before the game. Not at the square shops. Wait to see what happens to the line as the game approaches and then lay off what you are comfortable with and buy the point or half if you have to, although i doubt you will to lock some texas + 7.5 in. Thats all you can do. Hedging now is silly unless you really believe USC gets beat, because texas only has kansas at home and then two weeks to get ready for a woeful a&m team on the road. then their title game against colorado who they already drilled by 25 earlier in the year.

do nothing now and then lock in at least +7.5 on the horns in late december if line goes against you which it wont. if usc loses before then, well then your bet was bad to begin with.

gl

 

[Scott4USC]

So most are confident that USC will be larger favorites AFTER the season ends. If USC is -3 I won't hedge. Not worth it. But if USC is -7 then it is too good not to hedge even if I am confident in USC. Texas +10 or higher would be a wet dream. If I can get Texas +300 ML I'll be doing backflips.

I don't see how sportsbooks can make USC larger than 7pt favorites. Wouldn't ton of $$$ go on Texas? MAYBE sportsbooks think USC blows Texas out and begs for Texas $$$ and puts USC double digit favorite.

I was hoping some people here at MJ's work or know people at the sportsbooks. Could give me clue what to expect. I guess since USC is -6.5 now (pinny) and been that way throughout, I assume USC will be -7 opening line. I fear USC will be -3 after both USC and Texas make it. I don't think I have it in me to hedge Texas +3 or ML less than +200.

Any chance Texas will be +300 ML? :mj09:


I think Texas could lose @A&M and against CO. USC can lose @CAL, FSU and UCLA. No gimmies. But Texas def. has much easier road. If both Texas and USC play great football NONE of those teams pull an upset. But it is hard to play great football every week.

 

[BleedDodgerBlue]

Scott, you are WAY underestimating the line for the game.

quit looking at pinny and the sharper books.

the line will open at 7 or thereabouts. watch every square book in the world get hit with usc money from the get go. look at sia, sportsbook, the bodogs of the world. ask yourself what consumers at those shops are going to bet. Playing basically at home having blown out oklahoma last year and winning every game by double digits this year,30 whatever wins in a row, not a square in 49 of thel US states is going to be playing Texas. Just not going to happen. Sharp money might come in on Texas maybe, but you will get NO square money on them in general.

I can GUARANTEE you that at the square shops you will get at least a 7.5 by game time and probably higher barring no major injuries.

I also make no assumptions about the game, but if i can get a 7.5 on texas i think there is value there

gl

 

[maverick2112]

I spent this week capping the game USC/Texas. I have this game fully capped. I am confident how the game plays out. Now I am trying to make an educated guess on if its worth it to hedge.
.

I hope you capped this game better than you did your Wisconsin-Penn State game...........that was a total laugher.......

I BET THAT WAS HARD TO SIT THROUGH WATCHING PENN STATE JUST RUN WISKY RAGGED AND POUNDING THE WISCONSIN QB OVER AND OVER AGAIN..........

 

[Scott4USC]

I hope you capped this game better than you did your Wisconsin-Penn State game...........that was a total laugher.......

I BET THAT WAS HARD TO SIT THROUGH WATCHING PENN STATE JUST RUN WISKY RAGGED AND POUNDING THE WISCONSIN QB OVER AND OVER AGAIN..........

Wasn't bad. I capped all my other games perfectly and had monster weekend. I didn't have to sweat bullets because I was already up over 17 units on the day at the point in time. I was upset I couldn't buy back my Wisky bet at half. I could have bought my bet back prior to game but chose not too. I take big risks. I am now up UNITS after being down over 30 units. So I was happy with the end result and it pains me to think how much I be up if Wisky covered like I expected. I can't cap every game correctly (Wisky great example) and unfortunately I lost some HUGE bets I normally win. Or least have won the previous 3 years at super high rate. Finally has caught up to me but the #1 objective is positive units and that is exactly where I am at! Large profit so far this season for me personally because I bet so much a unit. Quality units. Not bad when you factor me losing some HUGE HUGE wagers. (LOUSIVILLE, NEW MEXICO ML, and WISKY come to mind) Quite impressive I overcame those loses. You don't see too many posters (if any) posting their NEGATIVE results/record and sticking it out. I did!

BTW, I rather lose a game capping it wrong then to cap it right and still lose. I capped Wisky wrong. Although Wisky played Penn St. tough in 2h. If Wisky QB did not throw 2nd and goal INT I think Wisky has decent chance at covering the spread. Different ball game. Penn St. just started off on fire and blew game open. $hit happens! I underestimated team speed of PSU. I learn from my mistakes.

 

[Scott4USC]

Scott, you are WAY underestimating the line for the game.

quit looking at pinny and the sharper books.

the line will open at 7 or thereabouts. watch every square book in the world get hit with usc money from the get go. look at sia, sportsbook, the bodogs of the world. ask yourself what consumers at those shops are going to bet. Playing basically at home having blown out oklahoma last year and winning every game by double digits this year,30 whatever wins in a row, not a square in 49 of thel US states is going to be playing Texas. Just not going to happen. Sharp money might come in on Texas maybe, but you will get NO square money on them in general.

I can GUARANTEE you that at the square shops you will get at least a 7.5 by game time and probably higher barring no major injuries.

I also make no assumptions about the game, but if i can get a 7.5 on texas i think there is value there

gl

I can't bet much at the square books. Either they have limits low or they personally lower my limits. Plus they usually give $hit ML's. I have around 25k on USC future wagers to win it all and go undefeated for season at an average of +190 odds. So I need to use books like PINNY if I want to bet 10k or 20k on Texas. I am thinking more of ML bet on Texas than spread. I think USC wins double digits but I will cover my a$$ if I can get sweet ML. +300 TEXAS ML would make me do backflips. What do you think the chances of Texas being +300 ML?

I am glad you are confident Texas will be +7 or higher underdogs. I respect you as a poster. That is what I am hoping. +10 would be perfect. I STILL FEAR TEXAS only being +3. I need USC to not only win but win BIG the next 3 games to assure big spread over Texas.

 

[The Judge]

If I can get Texas +300 ML I'll be doing backflips.

Me too.