So, Sunday night I was going through a seed scrub for the top 10 seed lines (saving the big auto bid scrub for when we know the actual teams), and I got midway through the 7-seeds ... and started looking around. There must be someone else here, right? ... Wait, you mean that's it? Cincinnati is a 9-seed? UConn's still a 10? Northwestern's still in the bracket?
Yup, right now it's one of those years. Thanks to Creighton and Murray State escaping with victories in their conference tournaments and other leagues like the West Coast and Colonial putting their two best teams into the finals, there has been no projected bid poaching and thus the bubble has not contracted from its buttery soft fullest.
The m?lange at the cutline will sift itself out as the larger-conference tournaments move forward, but how amazingly weak this looks right now raises a number of interesting questions:
? Can the Pac-12 actually get three bids despite an absolute dearth of quality wins (or quality)?
? Will late-surging mystery teams like Tennessee force their way into the field?
? Why would the committee turn down Harvard or Long Beach State if they become at-large candidates? Or Oral Roberts? Or even Iona or perhaps Middle Tennessee State?
Things will firm up a bit. They have to. Don't they? However this week plays out, this might be the first year I wouldn't want to be on the selection committee. They have an almost impossible job on tap ... and will get ripped for however they choose to parse empty, dissimilar resumes at the cutline.
A quick reminder on the standard rules of engagement:
1) Auto bids go to the best RPI of the conference leaders (based on few
est league losses) or best RPI left in the conference tournament.
2) Records listed are Division I only, per NCAA Tournament selection guidelines. All RPI and SOS data are from Sunday's collegerpi.com RPI report. GW = good wins. BL = bad losses. (N) = neutral-site game.
Locks: Duke, North Carolina, Florida State
The Tar Heels pounced on Duke early and never relented, routing their arch rival and snatching the ACC regular-season crown. That leaves Carolina potentially positioned to land a No. 1 seed on Sunday if the Heels can win the ACC tournament. It will depend on what Michigan State and Kansas do, and what the committee thinks of those three profiles if all "do the double." Duke still has a chance for a 1, but more likely will be a 2-seed. Who else will join these three?
SHOULD BE IN
Virginia (22-8, 9-7; RPI: 40, SOS: 78)
Whew. After caving down the stretch at home against Florida State, the Cavaliers escaped at Maryland in overtime to get what could be a crucial win (or at least non-loss). Doing some work in the ACC tournament would be wise. The bubble has remained soft so far, but there are a lot of games left.
GW: Michigan, at Oregon, Miami?, at NC State?
BL: Virginia Tech?, TCU(N)?, at Clemson
IN THE MIX
Miami (18-11, 9-7; RPI: 51, SOS: 37)
Losing at N.C. State (getting swept by the Wolfpack in the process leaves Miami as the consummate bubble team. One huge win, one other good win, and a bunch of so-so computer and profile numbers, plus the excuse of Reggie Johnson's injury. The problem is they haven't exactly impressed with him, either, and the win over Florida State came without him.
GW: at Duke, Florida State
BL: None, really
North Carolina State (20-11, 9-7; RPI: 53, SOS: 29)
A sweep of Miami and then a win in Blacksburg resurrects the Wolfpack's hopes a bit. They remain 0-8 against the top-50, though, with the win over Miami pushing the Canes to 51. Several wins in the ACC tournament will be needed. Start with round one against Boston College and go from there.
GW: Sweep of Miami
BL: Georgia Tech, at Clemson, at Stanford?
Big 12
Locks: Kansas, Missouri, Baylor, Iowa State
Kansas remains on track for a No. 1 seed in the NCAAs. Missouri has an outside chance at a 1, but most likely will end up as a 2. Iowa State joins the lock party with its 12th Big 12 win, this one over Baylor, which continues its slide down the stretch. K-State almost certainly will make five. That might be it.
SHOULD BE IN
Kansas State (21-9, 10-8; RPI: 43, SOS: 60)
It appears the Wildcats are good to go, but let's keep them here until the Big 12 quarterfinal against Baylor. They very likely can absorb a loss there, though, and comfortably make it in.
GW: Sweep of Missouri, at Baylor, Alabama (N), Long Beach State (N)
BL: Swept by Oklahoma, Swept by Iowa State
IN THE MIX
Texas (19-12, 9-9; RPI: 52, SOS: 23)
The Horns couldn't get the upset at Kansas and now need to do significant work in the Big 12 tournament, starting with a quarterfinal matchup with Iowa State. Best guess is the Longhorns need that one and a semifinal win over (assumedly) Missouri to feel like they're on the right side of the cutline. One win and it will be close, but possibly not favorable. They're 4-9 road/neutral and 4-10 against the top 50, and will now be without Alexis Wangmene (broken wrist).
GW: Temple, Iowa State?, Kansas State?
BL: Oregon State (N)
Big East
Locks: Syracuse, Georgetown, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame
Five are in. Five more remain in contention. Several took very damaging losses this week, so the Big East tournament will be the decider. Syracuse will be a No. 1 seed in the NCAAs. Marquette and Georgetown may max out at a 3, but we'll see.
SHOULD BE IN
Cincinnati (22-9, 12-6; RPI: 67, SOS: 102)
Huge week for the Bearcats, who took down Marquette and then won at Villanova to finish 12-6 and grab the 4-seed and the double-bye that goes with it. It looks pretty solid right now despite the bad computer numbers fueled by the horrid nonconference schedule. A win over Georgetown/Pitt/St. John's in the quarters would absolutely seal it.
GW: at Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Louisville, at UConn?, Seton Hall?
BL: St. John's, at Rutgers, Presbyterian
IN THE MIX
Connecticut (18-12, 8-10; RPI: 34, SOS: 3)
After a really damaging loss at Providence, the Huskies are vulnerable entering the Big East tournament. The possible second-round game with West Virginia could be a bit of a play-in game. The winner will certainly dance while the loser may have to sweat things out a bit. If you believe in signs, the Huskies are the 9-seed, starting with a game with DePaul on Tuesday, just like last year.
GW: Florida State (N), at Notre Dame, Seton Hall?, West Virginia?, Harvard?
BL: at Rutgers, at Tennessee, at Providence
West Virginia (19-12, 9-9; RPI: 45, SOS: 13)
The Mountaineers steamrolled DePaul and then grabbed a crucial road win at South Florida to finish at .500 and get a first-round bye in the Big East tournament. That second-round game, likely against UConn, will leave the loser feeling a bit uneasy until Sunday.
GW: Georgetown, Kansas State (N), Miami?, Cincinnati?, Oral Roberts? at South Florida?
BL: Kent State?, at St. John's, Pitt?
Seton Hall (19-11, 8-10; RPI: 60, SOS: 48)
The Pirates may have suffered the most damaging loss of any bubble team this week, getting destroyed at last place DePaul on Saturday. Mix that with the home loss to Rutgers earlier in the week, and the Pirates may have ruined their at-large hopes. Now they absolutely have to beat Providence and then Louisville to make the quarters, and may need to beat Marquette beyond that to hold on.
GW: Georgetown, UConn?, West Virginia?, Saint Joseph's?
BL: Rutgers, at Villanova, Rutgers, at DePaul
South Florida (18-12, 12-6; RPI: 46, SOS: 24)
The Bulls got a huge win at Louisville but then couldn't handle West Virginia at home, leaving themselves needing to do more quality work at MSG this week. They're going to have to beat the Villanova/Rutgers winner and then take out Notre Dame in the quarters.
GW: at Louisville, Seton Hall?, Cincinnati?
BL: Old Dominion (N)?, Penn State (N), at Auburn
Big Ten
Locks: Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana
Five are in. Michigan State remains strongly in contention for a 1-seed. Is Ohio State sliding toward a 3? Purdue looks pretty decent to make the dance. Can Northwestern end its lifetime of frustration?
SHOULD BE IN
Purdue (20-11, 10-8; RPI: 42, SOS: 27)
The Boilers should have enough to make it in this seemingly soft bubble year. They have enough good wins.
GW: Temple (N), at Michigan, Iona?, sweep of Northwestern?, Miami?
BL: Butler (N), at Penn State
IN THE MIX
Northwestern (18-12, 8-10; RPI: 49, SOS: 12)
The Wildcats couldn't beat Ohio State and now, after slipping past Iowa on the road, they need to beat Minnesota and then get past a Michigan team they have played tough twice. Accomplish that, and we'll see if it's enough.
GW: Michigan State, Seton Hall (N)?, at Illinois?
BL: Illinois?
Pac-12
Locks: None
There's no way the Pac-12 will be a one-bid league. That scenario would require Cal, Washington and Arizona all to lose on the final weekend to inferior opponents ... Oops. That said, unless the bubble contracts quickly, three bids may be more likely than one. Still feels like two, though, which makes the conference semifinals hugely important.
SHOULD BE IN
None.
IN THE MIX
California (23-8, 13-5; RPI: 37, SOS: 92)
The Golden Bears blew a share of the league title when they fell at arch rival Stanford in a horribly officiated game at Maples. Refs or no refs (and they were bad both ways), this is a dangerous loss for the team with the best at-large profile in the league. Can they now afford an early tournament exit? What about a semifinal loss to Oregon? They went 3-0 against Washington and the Ducks in the regular season.
GW: Swept Oregon?, at Washington?
BL: at Washington State, at Oregon State, Arizona?
Washington (22-9, 14-4; RPI: 56; SOS: 82)
The Huskies had a chance for a solo crown, tripped up at UCLA in their finale, and then won it anyway when Cal lost at Stanford on Sunday. That unsplit league title may be very, very important to a resume that's built solely on eye test and winning the Pac-12, with the hope the committee overlooks the terrible 4-8 mark against the top-100. UW may have improved as the season went along, but that's not worth bonus points, especially when you drop four games in the No. 10-ranked league.
GW: Oregon?, Sweep of Arizona??
BL: Home to South Dakota State by 19, at UCLA
Oregon (22-8, 11-5; RPI: 49, SOS: 88)
The Ducks are the only team not to screw up over the weekend, which makes them the big winners. They also may be playing the best ball in the league right now, having won six of seven down the stretch. They're going to have to beat Cal (assumedly) in a semifinal to have a legit chance, though. The arrival of Devoe Joseph has been a turning point, but will the committee give them that much credit for it?
GW: at Arizona?, Washington by 25?
BL: Oregon State
Arizona (21-10, 12-6; RPI: 76, SOS: 115)
The Wildcats simply couldn't afford to lose at Arizona State. This is now auto-bid or NIT, it seems.
GW: at Cal, at New Mexico State?
BL: at UCLA?, at Arizona State
SEC
Locks: Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt
Kentucky finished its 16-0 rampage through the league by winning at Florida and gave the 2-seed to ... Tennessee?!! The Vols are a sudden wrench in the at-large works. The Gators and Dores will be dancing. Expect a couple more to make it. Maybe.
SHOULD BE IN
Alabama (20-10, 9-7; RPI: 32, SOS: 17)
The Tide could have wrapped things up with a win at Ole Miss, but stumbled. They're still in pretty good shape, but now they have to handle a 5-12 game against South Carolina and then get a quarterfinal with Florida. A loss in either game wouldn't be a great look, but likely would be a seeding, not selection, issue.
GW: Wichita State (N), Purdue?, VCU?
BL: at South Carolina, at LSU?
IN THE MIX
Mississippi State (21-10, 8-8; RPI: 64, SOS: 66)
The Bulldogs barely got past South Carolina on the road in overtime, then iced road-inept Arkansas to get back to .500. Now what? First up is Georgia in the first round of the SEC tournament, and if the Bulldogs win that, they get Vanderbilt. Those two feel like must-wins, and then the semifinal could be really intriguing if 2-seed Tennessee is there.
GW: at Vanderbilt, Alabama, Arizona?, West Virginia
BL: Georgia, Akron?
Tennessee (17-13, 10-6; RPI: 75, SOS: 33)
The Vols got the combo of results they needed this weekend to land the 2-seed in the SEC tournament, which combined with the home win over Vanderbilt, makes things a lot more interesting. They will draw Ole Miss or Auburn in the quarterfinals (clearly winnable) and then likely face Vandy or Mississippi State in the semis. If they make the final, can the committee keep them out? One thing's for sure: That appearance would create a few more Kentucky (or Florida, or Alabama) fans.
GW: Sweep of Florida, Vanderbilt, Connecticut, Mississippi??
BL: at Georgia, at Charleston, at Oakland, Austin Peay
Mississippi (18-12, 8-8; RPI: 57, SOS: 38)
At just 1-7 against the top 50, the Rebels have a lot of work to do, but they're alive. Just keep winning and see what happens. First up is Auburn and then Tennessee in the quarters, so the Rebels are on the right side of the bracket to make a run.
GW: Mississippi State?, Miami?
BL: at Auburn
Atlantic 10
Locks: Temple, Saint Louis
The Billikens don't have a superb resume, but a strong second-place finish will be plenty for them to make the NCAAs. After that? The A-10 tourney will settle some of the mayhem. A possible Dayton-Xavier quarterfinal looms.
SHOULD BE IN
None.
IN THE MIX
Xavier (19-11, 10-6; RPI: 54, SOS: 47)
The Musketeers got whacked in the second half in Saint Louis and are left needing to do some work here. Would a quarterfinal win over Dayton be enough? Maybe. Beat Saint Louis if that's the semifinal matchup? Sounds good to me.
GW: at Vanderbilt, Purdue, St. Joe's?
BL: at Hawaii, at La Salle?
Dayton (18-10, 8-6; RPI: 61, SOS: 55)
The Flyers' stumble at Richmond probably means a semifinal berth (at minimum) is required. That will necessitate a win over George Washington and then ... hey! It's Round 3 with Xavier! Fun! Just a bizarre profile. Some very credible wins, some very puzzling losses.
GW: Alabama, Saint Louis, Xavier, at Temple, Minnesota??, Ole Miss?
BL: at Miami (Ohio), Buffalo by 29?, Rhode Island, Duquesne?, at Richmond
Saint Joseph's (19-12, 9-7; RPI: 57, SOS: 42)
The Hawks fell in double-overtime at Saint Bonaventure, a loss that could help keep them out of the NCAAs. Now they finished behind Xavier in the standings and lost to the Musketeers, too. The A-10 fun starts with a must-win against Charlotte in order to get another shot at the Bonnies in the quarters. They probably will need to beat Temple (again) in the semis to feel good about their hopes.
GW: Temple, Creighton, Drexel?, Dayton?
BL: at American, Charlotte?
Mountain West
Locks: UNLV, New Mexico, San Diego State
The Lobos and Aztecs shared the league title, but the 1-seed for SDSU could be important as New Mexico now could draw host UNLV in the semis. Can Colorado State make it half the league dancing? Three big home wins help, but some neutral-court magic would do wonders.
SHOULD BE IN
None.
IN THE MIX
Colorado State (18-10, 8-6; RPI: 22, SOS: 7)
The Rams completed the trifecta of marquee home wins by rallying past UNLV, then they won their first road conference game of the season at Air Force. They will have to get past TCU in the quarters to feel relatively secure. Would that be enough if they lose in the semis to San Diego State?
GW: San Diego State, New Mexico, UNLV
BL: at Stanford?, at Boise State
Missouri Valley
Auto bid: Creighton
Locks: Wichita State
Congrats to Creighton, which staved off upstart Illinois State in overtime for the conference tournament crown. Both the Bluejays and Wichita State should find themselves as top-6 seeds, and the Creighton win spares the at-large pool from a bid thief.
SHOULD BE IN
None.
IN THE MIX
None.
Conference USA
Locks: Memphis
Memphis' profile lacks top-quality wins, but there are enough good wins with significant schedule strength to assure the Tigers of a bid, even if they surprisingly lose at home in the conference tournament. The committee will not skip the league champ with this profile.
SHOULD BE IN
Southern Miss (22-7, 11-5; RPI: 17, SOS: 51)
The Golden Eagles lost at Marshall in their finale to finish two games behind Memphis for the title. With a 9-3 record against the top 70, though, they should be fine.
GW: Memphis, Ole Miss, at Colorado State, sweep of New Mexico State?
BL: at UAB, at Houston, at UTEP
IN THE MIX
None.
West Coast
Locks: Saint Mary's, Gonzaga
The Gaels and Bulldogs will settle the tournament title in a rubber match. The way the tournament played out, though, may keep this a two-bid league come Sunday.
SHOULD BE IN
None.
IN THE MIX
BYU (23-8, 12-4; RPI: 45, SOS: 95)
The Cougars lost to Gonzaga again, this time in the semifinals, and may have blown their chance to make the Field of 68. This profile may not hold up after another week of conference tournaments. Nevada and Oregon moving into the top 50 helps appearances a bit, and maybe head-to-head with the Ducks will matter.
GW: Gonzaga
BL: at Utah State?, at Loyola Marymount?
The Others
Auto bids: Murray State
Locks: None
The Racers rallied late to get past Tennessee State by a bucket and spare an at-large spot for someone else. Will it be someone else on this sublist?
SHOULD BE IN
None.
IN THE MIX
Harvard (25-4, 12-2; RPI: 36, SOS: 181)
The Crimson had to battle hard both nights, but won at Columbia (in OT) and Cornell to clinch at least a share of the Ivy title. If Penn loses at Princeton Tuesday night, Harvard is the outright league winner and gets the auto bid. If Penn wins, there will be a one-game playoff later this week for the NCAA berth. If Harvard loses the playoff, the committee will have a very interesting decision on its hands. Could it create the first-ever Ivy at-large bid?
GW: Florida State (N), UCF (N)?, St. Joe's?
BL: at Fordham, Penn?
Long Beach State (20-8, 15-1; RPI: 35, SOS: 104)
The 49ers fell at second-place Fullerton in the regular-season finale, losing their wiggle room in the process. Can they afford to eat another loss in the conference tourney and still make it? That's their one "bad" loss of the season. Will ambitious scheduling offset that and the lack of quality wins? The win at Pitt came before the Panthers caved in. The win over Xavier was when X was still suspension-addled.
GW: at Pitt, Xavier (N)
BL: at Montana, at CS-Fullerton
Oral Roberts (27-5, 17-1; RPI: 38, SOS: 187)
The Golden Eagles won the Summit at 17-1 and now are in the semifinals against Western Illinois. A title game against semi-homestanding South Dakota State looms. How much credit that win over depleted Xavier is worth in the eyes of the committee will go a long way toward determining whether they can eat a loss.
GW: at Xavier (when shorthanded), South Dakota State?, Akron?
BL: UT-San Antonio (N)
VCU (27-6, 15-3; RPI: 50, SOS: 174)
As mentioned on Twitter, the Rams should just send the committee the first nine minutes of the semifinal against George Mason on DVD with a note that says "Here's our resume." Really? A 32-4 lead? VCU ultimately only won by 10, but that was quite an opening statement ahead of what should be great final against Drexel.
GW: South Florida?, Northern Iowa?, at Akron?
BL: Georgia State, Georgia Tech (N)
Drexel (27-5, 16-2; RPI: 63, SOS: 224)
It was less dramatic, but the Dragons also impressed in a thumping semifinal win over Old Dominion. Now they get VCU for the title and the auto bid. Drexel's at-large profile is worse than VCU's, so a Dragons win here would be the better path to a #2bidCAA.
GW: VCU??, at Cleveland State?
BL: at Georgia State, at Delaware, Norfolk State (N)
Iona (25-7, 15-3; RPI: 41, SOS: 144)
Don't think the Gaels can get there after being dumped in the MAAC semis by Fairfield, but with 15 road/neutral wins and a 5-3 top-100 mark, you can't totally dismiss them even without a marquee win. That said, this is probably too many bad losses from a modest conference.
GW: None, really
BL: Fairfield (N)?, Manhattan, at Siena, at Hofstra
Middle Tennessee State (24-6, 14-2; RPI: 59, SOS: 183)
The Blue Raiders inexplicably lost to 9-seed Arkansas State in the Sun Belt quarterfinals and probably saw their at-large hopes end. That's a second straight sub-200 loss to end the season.
GW: Ole Miss (N), at UCLA?
BL: at UAB, at Western Kentucky, Arkansas State (N)
Other auto bids: Belmont (Atlantic Sun), UNC-Asheville (Big South)
Yup, right now it's one of those years. Thanks to Creighton and Murray State escaping with victories in their conference tournaments and other leagues like the West Coast and Colonial putting their two best teams into the finals, there has been no projected bid poaching and thus the bubble has not contracted from its buttery soft fullest.
The m?lange at the cutline will sift itself out as the larger-conference tournaments move forward, but how amazingly weak this looks right now raises a number of interesting questions:
? Can the Pac-12 actually get three bids despite an absolute dearth of quality wins (or quality)?
? Will late-surging mystery teams like Tennessee force their way into the field?
? Why would the committee turn down Harvard or Long Beach State if they become at-large candidates? Or Oral Roberts? Or even Iona or perhaps Middle Tennessee State?
Things will firm up a bit. They have to. Don't they? However this week plays out, this might be the first year I wouldn't want to be on the selection committee. They have an almost impossible job on tap ... and will get ripped for however they choose to parse empty, dissimilar resumes at the cutline.
A quick reminder on the standard rules of engagement:
1) Auto bids go to the best RPI of the conference leaders (based on few
est league losses) or best RPI left in the conference tournament.
2) Records listed are Division I only, per NCAA Tournament selection guidelines. All RPI and SOS data are from Sunday's collegerpi.com RPI report. GW = good wins. BL = bad losses. (N) = neutral-site game.
Locks: Duke, North Carolina, Florida State
The Tar Heels pounced on Duke early and never relented, routing their arch rival and snatching the ACC regular-season crown. That leaves Carolina potentially positioned to land a No. 1 seed on Sunday if the Heels can win the ACC tournament. It will depend on what Michigan State and Kansas do, and what the committee thinks of those three profiles if all "do the double." Duke still has a chance for a 1, but more likely will be a 2-seed. Who else will join these three?
SHOULD BE IN
Virginia (22-8, 9-7; RPI: 40, SOS: 78)
Whew. After caving down the stretch at home against Florida State, the Cavaliers escaped at Maryland in overtime to get what could be a crucial win (or at least non-loss). Doing some work in the ACC tournament would be wise. The bubble has remained soft so far, but there are a lot of games left.
GW: Michigan, at Oregon, Miami?, at NC State?
BL: Virginia Tech?, TCU(N)?, at Clemson
IN THE MIX
Miami (18-11, 9-7; RPI: 51, SOS: 37)
Losing at N.C. State (getting swept by the Wolfpack in the process leaves Miami as the consummate bubble team. One huge win, one other good win, and a bunch of so-so computer and profile numbers, plus the excuse of Reggie Johnson's injury. The problem is they haven't exactly impressed with him, either, and the win over Florida State came without him.
GW: at Duke, Florida State
BL: None, really
North Carolina State (20-11, 9-7; RPI: 53, SOS: 29)
A sweep of Miami and then a win in Blacksburg resurrects the Wolfpack's hopes a bit. They remain 0-8 against the top-50, though, with the win over Miami pushing the Canes to 51. Several wins in the ACC tournament will be needed. Start with round one against Boston College and go from there.
GW: Sweep of Miami
BL: Georgia Tech, at Clemson, at Stanford?
Big 12
Locks: Kansas, Missouri, Baylor, Iowa State
Kansas remains on track for a No. 1 seed in the NCAAs. Missouri has an outside chance at a 1, but most likely will end up as a 2. Iowa State joins the lock party with its 12th Big 12 win, this one over Baylor, which continues its slide down the stretch. K-State almost certainly will make five. That might be it.
SHOULD BE IN
Kansas State (21-9, 10-8; RPI: 43, SOS: 60)
It appears the Wildcats are good to go, but let's keep them here until the Big 12 quarterfinal against Baylor. They very likely can absorb a loss there, though, and comfortably make it in.
GW: Sweep of Missouri, at Baylor, Alabama (N), Long Beach State (N)
BL: Swept by Oklahoma, Swept by Iowa State
IN THE MIX
Texas (19-12, 9-9; RPI: 52, SOS: 23)
The Horns couldn't get the upset at Kansas and now need to do significant work in the Big 12 tournament, starting with a quarterfinal matchup with Iowa State. Best guess is the Longhorns need that one and a semifinal win over (assumedly) Missouri to feel like they're on the right side of the cutline. One win and it will be close, but possibly not favorable. They're 4-9 road/neutral and 4-10 against the top 50, and will now be without Alexis Wangmene (broken wrist).
GW: Temple, Iowa State?, Kansas State?
BL: Oregon State (N)
Big East
Locks: Syracuse, Georgetown, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame
Five are in. Five more remain in contention. Several took very damaging losses this week, so the Big East tournament will be the decider. Syracuse will be a No. 1 seed in the NCAAs. Marquette and Georgetown may max out at a 3, but we'll see.
SHOULD BE IN
Cincinnati (22-9, 12-6; RPI: 67, SOS: 102)
Huge week for the Bearcats, who took down Marquette and then won at Villanova to finish 12-6 and grab the 4-seed and the double-bye that goes with it. It looks pretty solid right now despite the bad computer numbers fueled by the horrid nonconference schedule. A win over Georgetown/Pitt/St. John's in the quarters would absolutely seal it.
GW: at Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Louisville, at UConn?, Seton Hall?
BL: St. John's, at Rutgers, Presbyterian
IN THE MIX
Connecticut (18-12, 8-10; RPI: 34, SOS: 3)
After a really damaging loss at Providence, the Huskies are vulnerable entering the Big East tournament. The possible second-round game with West Virginia could be a bit of a play-in game. The winner will certainly dance while the loser may have to sweat things out a bit. If you believe in signs, the Huskies are the 9-seed, starting with a game with DePaul on Tuesday, just like last year.
GW: Florida State (N), at Notre Dame, Seton Hall?, West Virginia?, Harvard?
BL: at Rutgers, at Tennessee, at Providence
West Virginia (19-12, 9-9; RPI: 45, SOS: 13)
The Mountaineers steamrolled DePaul and then grabbed a crucial road win at South Florida to finish at .500 and get a first-round bye in the Big East tournament. That second-round game, likely against UConn, will leave the loser feeling a bit uneasy until Sunday.
GW: Georgetown, Kansas State (N), Miami?, Cincinnati?, Oral Roberts? at South Florida?
BL: Kent State?, at St. John's, Pitt?
Seton Hall (19-11, 8-10; RPI: 60, SOS: 48)
The Pirates may have suffered the most damaging loss of any bubble team this week, getting destroyed at last place DePaul on Saturday. Mix that with the home loss to Rutgers earlier in the week, and the Pirates may have ruined their at-large hopes. Now they absolutely have to beat Providence and then Louisville to make the quarters, and may need to beat Marquette beyond that to hold on.
GW: Georgetown, UConn?, West Virginia?, Saint Joseph's?
BL: Rutgers, at Villanova, Rutgers, at DePaul
South Florida (18-12, 12-6; RPI: 46, SOS: 24)
The Bulls got a huge win at Louisville but then couldn't handle West Virginia at home, leaving themselves needing to do more quality work at MSG this week. They're going to have to beat the Villanova/Rutgers winner and then take out Notre Dame in the quarters.
GW: at Louisville, Seton Hall?, Cincinnati?
BL: Old Dominion (N)?, Penn State (N), at Auburn
Big Ten
Locks: Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana
Five are in. Michigan State remains strongly in contention for a 1-seed. Is Ohio State sliding toward a 3? Purdue looks pretty decent to make the dance. Can Northwestern end its lifetime of frustration?
SHOULD BE IN
Purdue (20-11, 10-8; RPI: 42, SOS: 27)
The Boilers should have enough to make it in this seemingly soft bubble year. They have enough good wins.
GW: Temple (N), at Michigan, Iona?, sweep of Northwestern?, Miami?
BL: Butler (N), at Penn State
IN THE MIX
Northwestern (18-12, 8-10; RPI: 49, SOS: 12)
The Wildcats couldn't beat Ohio State and now, after slipping past Iowa on the road, they need to beat Minnesota and then get past a Michigan team they have played tough twice. Accomplish that, and we'll see if it's enough.
GW: Michigan State, Seton Hall (N)?, at Illinois?
BL: Illinois?
Pac-12
Locks: None
There's no way the Pac-12 will be a one-bid league. That scenario would require Cal, Washington and Arizona all to lose on the final weekend to inferior opponents ... Oops. That said, unless the bubble contracts quickly, three bids may be more likely than one. Still feels like two, though, which makes the conference semifinals hugely important.
SHOULD BE IN
None.
IN THE MIX
California (23-8, 13-5; RPI: 37, SOS: 92)
The Golden Bears blew a share of the league title when they fell at arch rival Stanford in a horribly officiated game at Maples. Refs or no refs (and they were bad both ways), this is a dangerous loss for the team with the best at-large profile in the league. Can they now afford an early tournament exit? What about a semifinal loss to Oregon? They went 3-0 against Washington and the Ducks in the regular season.
GW: Swept Oregon?, at Washington?
BL: at Washington State, at Oregon State, Arizona?
Washington (22-9, 14-4; RPI: 56; SOS: 82)
The Huskies had a chance for a solo crown, tripped up at UCLA in their finale, and then won it anyway when Cal lost at Stanford on Sunday. That unsplit league title may be very, very important to a resume that's built solely on eye test and winning the Pac-12, with the hope the committee overlooks the terrible 4-8 mark against the top-100. UW may have improved as the season went along, but that's not worth bonus points, especially when you drop four games in the No. 10-ranked league.
GW: Oregon?, Sweep of Arizona??
BL: Home to South Dakota State by 19, at UCLA
Oregon (22-8, 11-5; RPI: 49, SOS: 88)
The Ducks are the only team not to screw up over the weekend, which makes them the big winners. They also may be playing the best ball in the league right now, having won six of seven down the stretch. They're going to have to beat Cal (assumedly) in a semifinal to have a legit chance, though. The arrival of Devoe Joseph has been a turning point, but will the committee give them that much credit for it?
GW: at Arizona?, Washington by 25?
BL: Oregon State
Arizona (21-10, 12-6; RPI: 76, SOS: 115)
The Wildcats simply couldn't afford to lose at Arizona State. This is now auto-bid or NIT, it seems.
GW: at Cal, at New Mexico State?
BL: at UCLA?, at Arizona State
SEC
Locks: Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt
Kentucky finished its 16-0 rampage through the league by winning at Florida and gave the 2-seed to ... Tennessee?!! The Vols are a sudden wrench in the at-large works. The Gators and Dores will be dancing. Expect a couple more to make it. Maybe.
SHOULD BE IN
Alabama (20-10, 9-7; RPI: 32, SOS: 17)
The Tide could have wrapped things up with a win at Ole Miss, but stumbled. They're still in pretty good shape, but now they have to handle a 5-12 game against South Carolina and then get a quarterfinal with Florida. A loss in either game wouldn't be a great look, but likely would be a seeding, not selection, issue.
GW: Wichita State (N), Purdue?, VCU?
BL: at South Carolina, at LSU?
IN THE MIX
Mississippi State (21-10, 8-8; RPI: 64, SOS: 66)
The Bulldogs barely got past South Carolina on the road in overtime, then iced road-inept Arkansas to get back to .500. Now what? First up is Georgia in the first round of the SEC tournament, and if the Bulldogs win that, they get Vanderbilt. Those two feel like must-wins, and then the semifinal could be really intriguing if 2-seed Tennessee is there.
GW: at Vanderbilt, Alabama, Arizona?, West Virginia
BL: Georgia, Akron?
Tennessee (17-13, 10-6; RPI: 75, SOS: 33)
The Vols got the combo of results they needed this weekend to land the 2-seed in the SEC tournament, which combined with the home win over Vanderbilt, makes things a lot more interesting. They will draw Ole Miss or Auburn in the quarterfinals (clearly winnable) and then likely face Vandy or Mississippi State in the semis. If they make the final, can the committee keep them out? One thing's for sure: That appearance would create a few more Kentucky (or Florida, or Alabama) fans.
GW: Sweep of Florida, Vanderbilt, Connecticut, Mississippi??
BL: at Georgia, at Charleston, at Oakland, Austin Peay
Mississippi (18-12, 8-8; RPI: 57, SOS: 38)
At just 1-7 against the top 50, the Rebels have a lot of work to do, but they're alive. Just keep winning and see what happens. First up is Auburn and then Tennessee in the quarters, so the Rebels are on the right side of the bracket to make a run.
GW: Mississippi State?, Miami?
BL: at Auburn
Atlantic 10
Locks: Temple, Saint Louis
The Billikens don't have a superb resume, but a strong second-place finish will be plenty for them to make the NCAAs. After that? The A-10 tourney will settle some of the mayhem. A possible Dayton-Xavier quarterfinal looms.
SHOULD BE IN
None.
IN THE MIX
Xavier (19-11, 10-6; RPI: 54, SOS: 47)
The Musketeers got whacked in the second half in Saint Louis and are left needing to do some work here. Would a quarterfinal win over Dayton be enough? Maybe. Beat Saint Louis if that's the semifinal matchup? Sounds good to me.
GW: at Vanderbilt, Purdue, St. Joe's?
BL: at Hawaii, at La Salle?
Dayton (18-10, 8-6; RPI: 61, SOS: 55)
The Flyers' stumble at Richmond probably means a semifinal berth (at minimum) is required. That will necessitate a win over George Washington and then ... hey! It's Round 3 with Xavier! Fun! Just a bizarre profile. Some very credible wins, some very puzzling losses.
GW: Alabama, Saint Louis, Xavier, at Temple, Minnesota??, Ole Miss?
BL: at Miami (Ohio), Buffalo by 29?, Rhode Island, Duquesne?, at Richmond
Saint Joseph's (19-12, 9-7; RPI: 57, SOS: 42)
The Hawks fell in double-overtime at Saint Bonaventure, a loss that could help keep them out of the NCAAs. Now they finished behind Xavier in the standings and lost to the Musketeers, too. The A-10 fun starts with a must-win against Charlotte in order to get another shot at the Bonnies in the quarters. They probably will need to beat Temple (again) in the semis to feel good about their hopes.
GW: Temple, Creighton, Drexel?, Dayton?
BL: at American, Charlotte?
Mountain West
Locks: UNLV, New Mexico, San Diego State
The Lobos and Aztecs shared the league title, but the 1-seed for SDSU could be important as New Mexico now could draw host UNLV in the semis. Can Colorado State make it half the league dancing? Three big home wins help, but some neutral-court magic would do wonders.
SHOULD BE IN
None.
IN THE MIX
Colorado State (18-10, 8-6; RPI: 22, SOS: 7)
The Rams completed the trifecta of marquee home wins by rallying past UNLV, then they won their first road conference game of the season at Air Force. They will have to get past TCU in the quarters to feel relatively secure. Would that be enough if they lose in the semis to San Diego State?
GW: San Diego State, New Mexico, UNLV
BL: at Stanford?, at Boise State
Missouri Valley
Auto bid: Creighton
Locks: Wichita State
Congrats to Creighton, which staved off upstart Illinois State in overtime for the conference tournament crown. Both the Bluejays and Wichita State should find themselves as top-6 seeds, and the Creighton win spares the at-large pool from a bid thief.
SHOULD BE IN
None.
IN THE MIX
None.
Conference USA
Locks: Memphis
Memphis' profile lacks top-quality wins, but there are enough good wins with significant schedule strength to assure the Tigers of a bid, even if they surprisingly lose at home in the conference tournament. The committee will not skip the league champ with this profile.
SHOULD BE IN
Southern Miss (22-7, 11-5; RPI: 17, SOS: 51)
The Golden Eagles lost at Marshall in their finale to finish two games behind Memphis for the title. With a 9-3 record against the top 70, though, they should be fine.
GW: Memphis, Ole Miss, at Colorado State, sweep of New Mexico State?
BL: at UAB, at Houston, at UTEP
IN THE MIX
None.
West Coast
Locks: Saint Mary's, Gonzaga
The Gaels and Bulldogs will settle the tournament title in a rubber match. The way the tournament played out, though, may keep this a two-bid league come Sunday.
SHOULD BE IN
None.
IN THE MIX
BYU (23-8, 12-4; RPI: 45, SOS: 95)
The Cougars lost to Gonzaga again, this time in the semifinals, and may have blown their chance to make the Field of 68. This profile may not hold up after another week of conference tournaments. Nevada and Oregon moving into the top 50 helps appearances a bit, and maybe head-to-head with the Ducks will matter.
GW: Gonzaga
BL: at Utah State?, at Loyola Marymount?
The Others
Auto bids: Murray State
Locks: None
The Racers rallied late to get past Tennessee State by a bucket and spare an at-large spot for someone else. Will it be someone else on this sublist?
SHOULD BE IN
None.
IN THE MIX
Harvard (25-4, 12-2; RPI: 36, SOS: 181)
The Crimson had to battle hard both nights, but won at Columbia (in OT) and Cornell to clinch at least a share of the Ivy title. If Penn loses at Princeton Tuesday night, Harvard is the outright league winner and gets the auto bid. If Penn wins, there will be a one-game playoff later this week for the NCAA berth. If Harvard loses the playoff, the committee will have a very interesting decision on its hands. Could it create the first-ever Ivy at-large bid?
GW: Florida State (N), UCF (N)?, St. Joe's?
BL: at Fordham, Penn?
Long Beach State (20-8, 15-1; RPI: 35, SOS: 104)
The 49ers fell at second-place Fullerton in the regular-season finale, losing their wiggle room in the process. Can they afford to eat another loss in the conference tourney and still make it? That's their one "bad" loss of the season. Will ambitious scheduling offset that and the lack of quality wins? The win at Pitt came before the Panthers caved in. The win over Xavier was when X was still suspension-addled.
GW: at Pitt, Xavier (N)
BL: at Montana, at CS-Fullerton
Oral Roberts (27-5, 17-1; RPI: 38, SOS: 187)
The Golden Eagles won the Summit at 17-1 and now are in the semifinals against Western Illinois. A title game against semi-homestanding South Dakota State looms. How much credit that win over depleted Xavier is worth in the eyes of the committee will go a long way toward determining whether they can eat a loss.
GW: at Xavier (when shorthanded), South Dakota State?, Akron?
BL: UT-San Antonio (N)
VCU (27-6, 15-3; RPI: 50, SOS: 174)
As mentioned on Twitter, the Rams should just send the committee the first nine minutes of the semifinal against George Mason on DVD with a note that says "Here's our resume." Really? A 32-4 lead? VCU ultimately only won by 10, but that was quite an opening statement ahead of what should be great final against Drexel.
GW: South Florida?, Northern Iowa?, at Akron?
BL: Georgia State, Georgia Tech (N)
Drexel (27-5, 16-2; RPI: 63, SOS: 224)
It was less dramatic, but the Dragons also impressed in a thumping semifinal win over Old Dominion. Now they get VCU for the title and the auto bid. Drexel's at-large profile is worse than VCU's, so a Dragons win here would be the better path to a #2bidCAA.
GW: VCU??, at Cleveland State?
BL: at Georgia State, at Delaware, Norfolk State (N)
Iona (25-7, 15-3; RPI: 41, SOS: 144)
Don't think the Gaels can get there after being dumped in the MAAC semis by Fairfield, but with 15 road/neutral wins and a 5-3 top-100 mark, you can't totally dismiss them even without a marquee win. That said, this is probably too many bad losses from a modest conference.
GW: None, really
BL: Fairfield (N)?, Manhattan, at Siena, at Hofstra
Middle Tennessee State (24-6, 14-2; RPI: 59, SOS: 183)
The Blue Raiders inexplicably lost to 9-seed Arkansas State in the Sun Belt quarterfinals and probably saw their at-large hopes end. That's a second straight sub-200 loss to end the season.
GW: Ole Miss (N), at UCLA?
BL: at UAB, at Western Kentucky, Arkansas State (N)
Other auto bids: Belmont (Atlantic Sun), UNC-Asheville (Big South)
