Quick help - possible arbitrage

[nakor]

Pinnacle has

Tunisia +500 = 16.7%
Japan -190 = 52.6%
Draw +265 = 27.4%
---------------------------
Total = 96.7%

This means that there is a bit over 3% value FOR THE BETTOR built into this line.

I can't figure out how to arbitrage it though. I should be able to bet each way and guarantee a small profit but it's late and I'm tired.

Thanks for help.

 

[KsYaS]

I think the japaneses and koreans will be the other referees of the games!!

good luck nakor, jejejejjejee



maybe I do not help you, but I am a bit tired to!!


Javier

 

[nakor]

Re: Quick help - possible arbitrage

Pinnacle has

Tunisia +500 = 16.7%
Japan -190 = 52.6%
Draw +265 = 27.4%
---------------------------
Total = 96.7%

I am tired. Obviously -190 is not 52.6%... it's actually 65% which makes the built in line 9% FOR THE HOUSE.

Shocker that a sportsbook fails to give away free money.

:shrug:

 

[PerpetualCzech]

Too bad about your minor math error but you were totally on the right track to trying to arbitrage 3-way lines. Here is how I do it:

What I do is set up hypothetical wagers where my TOTAL PAYOUT (including the original stake) is the same for all 3 wagers. What's nice about this is that it doesn't matter what the total payout is, it just has to be the same for all 3 wagers. Say you've found the following odds at 3 different sportsbooks:

Team A: +100
Team B: +500
Tie: +200

Here are the hypothetical wagers where the total payout is 600 (OK, I cheated and ahead of time made the numbers work out evenly but the methodology would work no matter what payout you decided to use here)

Team A: Risk 300 to win 300 (total payout 600)
Team B: Risk 200 to win 400 (total payout 600)
Team C: Risk 100 to win 500 (total payout 600)

Once we get this far it's easy to calculate your return. There is a total risk of 300+200+100=600 for all 3 bets and we are guaranteed to get a total payback of 600. So it means that there is no opportunity for arbitrage for a guaranteed profit, but at least we know that we are betting into lines with 0% juice. Of course if it turned out the total risk were smaller to get this payout then the guaranteed profit is possible - with a %age return of (Payout-Risk)/Risk - and if the total risk were more than the payout then the percentage juice we are betting into is (Risk-Payout)/Risk

 

[nostromo]

...or you could simply operate with decimal odds and calculate it as 1/A + 1/B + 1/(draw).
Less than 1 means you can scalp it, anything above 1 is juice (so if it's 1,10 there is 10% juice on the line)

 

[PerpetualCzech]

That's an excellent improvement. Then your risk amounts will be x/Decimal Odds where x will be a constant total payout for all three wagers.