Rachel draws outside post for Preakness

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Rachel draws outside post for Preakness


BALTIMORE - Now, is that any way to treat a lady? Rachel Alexandra, the Kentucky Oaks winner, landed the outside post when a field of 13 was entered on Wednesday for the 134th Preakness Stakes on Saturday at Pimlico Race Course.
Mine That Bird, the upset winner of the Kentucky Derby, did far better, winding up in post 2.

Rachel Alexandra is the lone filly in the Preakness field. Yet even though she will be making her first start against males, Rachel Alexandra was so impressive in the Oaks that she is the favorite on the morning lines set by both Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form's national handicapper, and Frank Carulli of Pimlico.

Watchmaker has Rachel Alexandra at 9-5, with Mine That Bird next at 9-2. Carulli made Rachel Alexandra the 8-5 favorite, with Pioneerof the Nile, the Kentucky Derby runner-up, the second choice at 5-1. Carulli has both Friesan Fire, who was 18th as the favorite in the Derby, and Mine That Bird the co-third choices at 6-1.

The outside post did not seem to faze those connected with Rachel Alexandra, who was pointed to the Preakness only after she was purchased privately last week by Jess Jackson's Stonestreet Stable and Harold McCormick and turned over to trainer Steve Asmussen.

"After speaking with Steve and Mr. Jackson we're happy with the draw," said Scott Blasi, Asmussen's top assistant, who accompanied Rachel Alexandra to Pimlico from Churchill Downs on Wednesday. Blasi said they were happy Rachel Alexandra would not be surrounded by male horses. And the possibility of losing ground, Blasi said, could be overcome by Rachel Alexandra's good early speed. "There's a long run to the first turn," he said.

Rachel Alexandra had to be supplemented to the Preakness by Jackson and McCormick at a cost of $100,000. That is added to the purse of the race, making the second leg of the Triple Crown worth $1.1 million. The Preakness is run at 1 3/16 miles, 110 yards shorter than the Derby, 110 yards farther than the Oaks.

Rachel Alexandra is the first Oaks winner to contest the Preakness. Of the 52 fillies who have run in the Preakness previously, only four have won, and not since Nellie Morse in 1924. Winning Colors, the 1988 Derby winner, was the last filly to be favored in the Preakness. She finished third. Rachel Alexandra could be the first horse since Linkage in 1982 to be favored in the Preakness after not running in the Derby.

The field was drawn late Wednesday afternoon at Pimlico in a traditional format, with a numbered pill being dispensed from a plastic bottle concurrent with a slip of paper bearing a horse's name. A murmur went through the crowd when "13" and "Rachel Alexandra" were called by Dave Rodman, the track announcer, who moderated the draw.

The speedy Big Drama, another prominent newcomer to the Triple Crown trail, drew the rail. Another horse who is likely to be near the front, Friesan Fire, got post 5.

"I'm happy with it, but I was happy with 6 at the Derby, and that didn't turn out to be a good spot," said Larry Jones, the trainer of Friesan Fire. "Hopefully this will be better."

The Preakness is the 12th race on a 13-race card that begins at 10:15 a.m. Eastern. Post time for the Preakness has been announced as 6:15 p.m., but is expected to be later. The race will be televised live by NBC.

Rachel Alexandra arrived at Pimlico on Wednesday afternoon at 4:20 p.m. following a flight from Kentucky. She was joined on the flight by Preakness runners Pioneerof the Nile and Terrain.

"I'm looking forward to it," said Al Stall Jr., the trainer of Terrain. "This is my first classic."

Rachel Alexandra's arrival was highly anticipated. Most Preakness runners are housed in a single stakes barn, and trainers with horses there congregated near the ramp where Rachel Alexandra and her flying partners were unloaded.

It was a casual, lighthearted atmosphere. Gary Stute, the trainer of Papa Clem, came by with a beer in his hand.

"I'm going to have one," Stute said. "Might as well. My whole staff is."

Rachel Alexandra had a routine gallop at Churchill Downs before departing, Asmussen said.

Mine That Bird got his first feel of the Pimlico main track on Wednesday morning, a little more than 12 hours after his arrival from Churchill Downs. His trainer, Chip Woolley, joked that the police escort Mine That Bird received for the final few miles of the trip was "the first time I've even been escorted by the police and didn't go to jail."

Woolley drove the van during the 10-hour trip, and said a few people along the highways recognized him and realized he was hauling the Derby winner.

"The cars would go by, then they'd slow down and wave," he said.

At the one place Woolley stopped to eat, he said no one realized the horse in the parking lot was Mine That Bird. Woolley did not put anything on the van, like a bumper sticker, to identify his cargo was Mine That Bird.

"I'm a no-flash kind of guy," he said. "I like to fly under the radar. That's not me. That's not my style. I'm glad nobody noticed. I guess it's pretty easy to recognize me right now."

Flying Private, General Quarters, and Luv Gov also went to the track on Wednesday after arriving by van from Churchill Downs on Tuesday.

Ten of the 13 Preakness horses were on the grounds as of Wednesday evening. Musket Man (who is based at Monmouth Park), Take the Points (Belmont Park), and Tone It Down (Laurel) are all scheduled to arrive early Saturday morning via van rides.

Mine That Bird won the Derby over a sloppy, sealed track at Churchill Downs. He may get another off track for the Preakness. Forecasts called for a 30-percent chance of rain, including isolated thunderstorms, on Saturday, with similar conditions for Friday. The high temperature both days is predicted to be in the upper 70s.

 

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Gender not the issue for Rachel

Gender not the issue for Rachel

Gender not the issue for Rachel

BALTIMORE - Millions of casual fans will be watching the Preakness on television to see if Rachel Alexandra can become the first member of her sex to win the race since 1924. Many of them will surely misunderstand the nature of filly vs. colt confrontations in horse racing. While there are valid reasons to question whether Rachel Alexandra can win at Pimlico, none of these questions involves her gender.
In the case of human athletes, of course, an unbridgeable gap separates the sexes. The best male miler is 30 seconds faster than the best female. In the Thoroughbred species, males are generally faster than females, too, but the difference between the sexes' ability is not nearly so great. Speed figures suggest that the average Kentucky Derby winner is roughly one second, or five lengths, faster than the average filly who wins the Kentucky Oaks.

However, these averages are not necessarily relevant to individual horses. Exceptional fillies can and do beat males. They do so regularly in Europe; last fall, the filly Zarkava won the continent's most important race. Fillies in the United States don't run as often against colts because there are so many lucrative races for their own sex, but they have fared well with limited opportunities in U.S. 3-year-old classics. Since 1980, there have been 17 filly starters in the Triple Crown events. Of them, three have won and seven have finished in the money - a commendable batting average.

Any doubts about Rachel Alexandra ought to focus not on her gender but on the way she has been prepared - or not prepared - for the Preakness. As she was sweeping to victories in her first four starts of 2009, her trainer did not give one minute's thought to the Triple Crown. Owner Dolphus Morrison had not even nominated her to the series as a matter of principle. But after Rachel Alexandra's phenomenal 20 1/4-length victory in the Kentucky Oaks prompted owner Jess Jackson to buy her, everything changed overnight. Jackson wanted to run in the Preakness. He turned the filly over to his regular trainer, Steve Asmussen, who could do little more than give her a routine half-mile workout and declare, "She looks beautiful."

In the Triple Crown races, planning matters. Trainers are obsessive about constructing schedules that give their horses an optimal amount of time between races. They plan months in advance to bring a horse into peak form for a particular objective. Thrusting a horse into the biggest race of his or her life with no real forethought violates the canons of the business.

But Jackson is making this move - correctly, I believe - because the weakness of the field justifies taking the gamble. It is reasonable to assume that Rachel Alexandra is going to deliver a solid performance. The unknown quantity in the Preakness is not the filly but the gelding Mine That Bird, whose victory in the Derby was one of the greatest racing upsets of all time.

Mine That Bird came into the Derby with credentials so weak that he was almost every handicapper's first throw-out. He proceeded to make an electrifying last-to-first move to win the Derby by 6 3/4 lengths. Was this a fluke, or did the gelding prove he is a legitimate Preakness contender?

Mine That Bird presumably relished the sloppy track and he definitely benefited from Calvin Borel's rail-skimming ride over a rail-favoring track. These factors accounted for some of his improvement, but they were not sufficient to transform him instantly from a bum into a champion. He obviously possessed more talent than anyone suspected. My best guess is that Mine That Bird won't be disgraced Saturday, but that without the slop and a perfect trip he won't run to the level of his Derby effort and won't be able to win.

The conditions that helped Mine That Bird at Churchill Downs hindered many of his rivals. Pioneerof the Nile chase the pace three wide all the way around the track.

"We were beaten by the track and the weather," owner Ahmed Zayat said.

Musket Man and Papa Clem raced near the rail early, but both swung wider than Pioneerof the Nile in the stretch, and the three of them finished in a photo finish behind the winner. Friesan Fire, the Derby favorite, suffered bad cuts on his leg during the race, so he has an excuse, too.

But none of these colts brought overpowering credentials into the Derby, and it is questionable if any of them has the talent to beat Rachel Alexandra. The filly's most intriguing challenger is the speedster Big Drama, who has finished first in his last six starts (he was disqualified in one) and ran seven furlongs this winter in an eye-popping 1:20.88. Unfortunately, that was his only start in 2009 and he will be coming into the Preakness after a seven-week layoff, and it is difficult to believe that he will be sufficiently fit to beat the filly.

Although I almost always look at big races from the betting standpoint, and without sentiment, I will be rooting for Rachel Alexandra. While many people have criticized Jackson for running her, I want him to be rewarded for being venturesome instead of taking the path of least resistance. The sport needs more such owners. The sport also needs stars, and this is Rachel Alexandra's chance to prove, on a national stage, that she is one.

 

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Preakness Betting Preview

Preakness Betting Preview

Preakness Betting Preview

After what happened in Louisville two weeks ago, I have absolutely no idea how the Preakness will shake out. Mine That Bird's shocking victory would shake the confidence of any handicapper that's ever consulted a Daily Racing Form.

In the Preakness, I whittled my play down to five main contenders, and I'm still not very confident.


BIG DRAMA (#1) showed dogged determination when returning from an injury-induced layoff in the Swale, and has now finished first in his last six races. I'm worried about the extra distance, but his good speed should have him in front heading into the clubhouse turn, and it's possible that the other jocks will attempt to float Rachel Alexandra (Big Drama's main pace rival) wide at that juncture. I must admit that I'm concerned about the equipment change. I guess trainer David Fawkes doesn't adhere to the adage that "if it ain't broke, don't fix it." If Big Drama doesn't relax without his usual eyewear, Fawkes' decision to change gears before the biggest race of his life could be Buckner-esque.
If the other riders decide to worry about Rachel and The Bird, Big Drama may make them pay on the front end.

The exploits of RACHEL ALEXANDRA (#13) have been well-documented on this blog. She seems like a special filly, but is wheeling back on short rest against much-tougher competition, and will have to hustle hard from the gate to avoid being forced wide on the first turn. I wouldn't be surprised in the least if she wins this race. She is certainly capable of sitting just off the pace, and may inherit the front if Big Drama's pedigree gives out at the quarter-pole. She must be used.

So, too, must MINE THAT BIRD (#2). I'm not really a believer just yet, and do think that he was aided by the slick racing strip at Churchill on the first Saturday in May, but he absolutely dominated those horses. There is a possibility of a Big Drama - Rachel Alexandra showdown on the backstretch, and the resulting quick fractions would certainly aid late-running Mine That Bird. Is he the real deal? I don't know. Will I get burned by him again by not including him in my wagers? Nope.

Jim Tully made some interesting points about TAKE THE POINTS (#11), and I agree that the gray colt may be worth inclusion in the exotics at a huge price. I'm not convinced that he'll stay this trip, but he tried very hard out in Southern California, and may not have been at his best over the Pro-Ride racing surface at Santa Anita. I liked his win at Gulfstream three back, and the addition of blinkers will have him into the bit (and the race) early.

PAPA CLEM (#7) may be better on fast dirt than the slop, and it didn't help that he faced freakish performances from Friesan Fire (Louisiana Derby), and Mine That Bird (Kentucky Derby) in those wet-track races. I like his tactical speed, and his Arkansas Derby was certainly solid. He'll be a good price so I'll toss him into the mix.

As for the rest:

MUSKET MAN (#3) is a courageous little fellow, and he tried his heart out in the Kentucky Derby. He hasn't won a bad one, and should work out a good stalking trip, but I have a nagging suspicion that nine furlongs is his limit. I won't be surprised if he wins, but I'll try to beat him.

LUV GOV (#4), named after disgraced politician Elliot Spitzer, is certainly bred to get the distance, but he's hard to like stepping up off a maiden win in the slop.

FRIESAN FIRE (#5), the beaten favorite in the Derby, had an excuse when he grabbed a quarter, but I hate playing horses in these big races off of even minor injuries or ailments. Things usually have to fall just right healthwise for these horses, and I wonder if Friesan Fire is still feeling any residual effects from the Derby debacle.
TERRAIN (#6) has a puncher's chance is the track is fast, but he failed to pass a tiring Papa Clem when given every opportunity to do so in the Louisiana Derby. I'm not sure the distance suits him either, and he'll need to improve in order to win this race.


GENERAL QUARTERS (#8), like Musket Man, is a courageous sort, and his good-bad pattern is pointing to an improved performance on Saturday. I've never been a huge fan of this gray colt, however, and he'll have to move forward just a little bit to get the big piece of the pie. Still, nothing would surprise me after what we saw in the Derby.

Certainly, a victory by PIONEEROF THE NILE (#9) wouldn't be a surprise. The consistent colt looked like a winner on the far turn of the Derby, but ran out of steam when The Bird blew on by. A very consistent son of Empire Maker, Pioneerof the Nile is another that could work out a nice trip from the second flight, but I'm not sure he's a great play as the second choice.

FLYING PRIVATE (#10) didn't pick up his feet in the Derby. The obvious excuse would be the mud, but Flying Private's only lifetime win came at six furlongs last year at Saratoga. He looks to be in too steep.

TONE IT DOWN (#12) is the local hope, and his connections insist that he'll be taken off the pace after faltering in the Tesio. If he wins, it would be Mine That Bird-like in the shock appeal.

 

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Preakness Preview - Part I

Preakness Preview - Part I

Preakness Preview - Part I

Mine That Bird?s shocking upset of the G1 Kentucky Derby has done little to keep them from coming to Pimlico as it looks like a bakers? dozen will line up for the 134th running of the G1 Preakness, the second jewel of the Triple Crown.

In most years, fellow Derby winners usually take one off and await the G1 Belmont Stakes, run three weeks after the Preakness and some five weeks after the Derby. This year, six other Derby participants are scheduled to tackle the Derby victor once again and will be joined by a half dozen new shooters who will speak about in this space.

Being the gentleman that I am, what better place to start then with the fabulous filly Rachel Alexandra. The hit soap opera ?Days of Our Lives? has nothing on the events that have taken place in the past week or so, on the Triple Crown trail and Rachel Alexandra has been at the center of it all.


Late last week, owner Jess Jackson of Curlin fame purchased the G1 Kentucky Oaks winner for a reported $10 million and promptly turned her training over to Steve Asmussen. Just as quickly, he announced that the Preakness and a shot at the boys was the likely next spot for his stables newest acquisition, a notion that wasn?t even open for discussion with her previous connections. Jackson supplemented the filly for $100,000. Multiple controversies ensued.

The first thing that came to most peoples minds was the Eight Belle?s tragedy of last years Derby but those thoughts were quickly dismissed when everyone realized that jockey Calvin Borel would now have to chose between Rachel Alexandra and Mine That Bird. Borel decided to stay with the star filly.

Then, over the weekend, a plan was hatched between one of Mine That Bird?s owners and Zayat Stable, owner of Derby runner-up Pioneerof the Nile, to each enter an additional horse in the Preakness to keep Rachel Alexandra out of the race as first preference is given to original Triple Crown nominees. Quick to join in was trainer D. Wayne Lukas who announced that he would enter Luv Gov, who broke his maiden in his tenth try on Derby Day, as well. It made for an interesting Mother?s Day in the horse racing world to say the least.

As the sun set on Sunday, however, everything settled down quite a bit. Zayat Stable pulled out of the plan immediately, as did Mine That Bird?s connections while Marylou Whitney, owner of Luv Gov (who?ll be ridden by Jamie Theriot), stated that she wouldn?t enter her horse if it meant keeping Rachel Alexandra out of the Preakness. Order was restored and Rachel Alexandra was in.

As for the filly, her resume speaks for itself. After winning just twice in her first five starts, all going one turn, Rachel Alexandra is a perfect five for five around two turns, including three G2s, the Golden Rod, the Fair Grounds Oaks and the Fantasy. She?ll look to become the first filly to win the Preakness since Nellie Morse did so in 1924. The last filly to start in the Preakness was Excellent Meeting in 1999. She was eased.

Big Drama will make his Triple Crown debut in the Preakness for trainer David Fawkes, perhaps the only trainer to ever successfully battle Derby Fever as he manages to turn back the temptation of taking a shot at the roses though his colt had plenty of credentials and earnings to do so.

After finishing third in his debut, Big Drama won five in a row to close out 2008, including three restricted Florida bred stakes and the G3 Delta Jackpot. Nagging injuries kept him out of action until late winter and instead of rushing the colt, Fawkes took a more conservative approach and used the G2 Swale on the Florida Derby undercard as Big Drama?s seasonal debut.

Sent immediately to the front in his first start in almost four months, Big Drama went wire to wire in course record time before being disqualified and placed second for bumping the second place finisher twice in the stretch. Still, the Swale proved to be a useful springboard and John Velazquez will ride for the first time on Saturday.

After taking three shots in the Derby, Take the Points will be the lone entrant from the Todd Pletcher stable in the Preakness. Another who could have run in the Derby, Pletcher decided to keep this colt on the bench as Join in the Dance, Dunkirk and Advice finished 7th, 11th and 13th respectively in the Run for the Roses.

Twice a winner from six starts, Take the Points finished second in the G3 Sham two back before a fourth place finish in the G1 Santa Anita Derby last out. Edgar Prado, who?s two for two aboard Take the Points, returns to the saddle for the Preakness.

Terrain is another new shooter whose Derby aspirations were squashed by a pair of sub-par performances to start his sophomore season. A third in the G2 Louisiana Derby and fourth in the G1 Blue Grass weren?t enough to convince trainer Al Stall to run Terrain in the Derby as he opted for this far more reasonable spot. Last season, Terrain won his first three starts and was second in the G1 Breeders? Futurity. Jeremy Rose will ride.

Finally, Tone It Down will carry the local banner for trainer Bill Komlo. Third in the Federico Tesio over the Pimlico strip last out, Kent Desormeaux will replace Mario Pino in the saddle for the Preakness.

 

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Preakness Preview - Part II

Preakness Preview - Part II

Preakness Preview - Part II

As expected, thirteen three-year-olds were entered for the 134th running of the G1 Preakness on Wednesday, led by the fantastic filly Rachel Alexandra who was installed as the 8-5 morning line favorite. While she is one of six new shooters, today we?ll focus on the seven who contested the G! Kentucky Derby a little less than two weeks ago. And what better place to start than with the upset winner, Mine That Bird.

We all know his somewhat crazy story by now. Trainer Chip Woolley was hobbling around Churchill Downs on crutches, the result of a motorcycle accident that occurred earlier this year; Woolley drove Mine That Bird by van from New Mexico to Kentucky, a 21 hour drive; a co-owner was involved in a political mess up in Alaska; the connections gave the roses from the winning Derby blanket out in front of the Derby museum the day after the race. And, of course, Calvin Borel?s amazing rail-skimming ride that has somewhat overshadowed the horse himself.

Like Rachel Alexandra, the human aspect of the story seems to have taken away from what this horse accomplished. HE WON THE DERBY!!! Only 134 others have been able to say that and it?s something you can never take away from him. Not bad for a horse who was winless on dirt prior to the Derby, in races at Sunland Park that weren?t even graded. What was taken away from him was his jockey, who decided to stay with Rachel Alexandra. Hall of Famer Mike Smith will replace Borel in the saddle on Saturday.


Almost seven lengths behind the winner, Pioneerof the Nile, Musket Man and Papa Clem, in order, finished in a three horse blanket finish for second. As if the Trail needed more controversy, many feel that Pioneerof the Nile should have been disqualified from second, but it?s the Kentucky Derby and short of bloodshed, no horse is getting DQed. It may not be right but it?s just how it is.

A bit closer than most expected, Pioneerof the Nile actually grabbed the lead turning for home and appeared to be handing his trainer Bob Baffert Derby win number four before the winner flew in from out of the clouds. In spite of drifting through the stretch and brushing with his photo finish partners, Pioneerof the Nile fought bravely through the lane to hold the place in what was his conventional dirt debut. Earlier this year, Pioneerof the Nile won a pair of G2s and the G1 Santa Anita Derby in his final prep for the Derby. Regular rider Garrett Gomez returns.

Musket Man put in his usual solid showing in the Derby with his third place finish. He?s now won 5 of 7 career starts, including the G3 Tampa Bay Derby and G2 Illinois Derby, finished third in his other two starts at five different racetracks. Jockey Eibar Coa stays here over Big Drama for trainer Derek Ryan.

G2 Arkansas Derby winner Papa Clem is another who?s given good accounts of himself since switching from the synthetic surfaces of Southern California. In fact, the Arkansas Derby was his only race over a dry track as his second place finish in the G2 Louisiana Derby and fourth place finish in Kentucky both came over sloppy courses. Rafael Bejarano rides for trainer Gary Stute.

General Quarters is one of those horses that got lost in the shuffle once the gate opened for the Derby, something that happens to several horses every year. After steadying twice, General Quarters never really got involved and wound up finishing tenth for the Cinderella story going into the Derby, trainer Tom McCarthy, a Louisville native. McCarthy reported after the race that his colts? eyes and nostrils were full of mud and that it probably affected his performance greatly. Julien Leparoux, who rode him for the first time in Kentucky, will be back aboard.

The Larry Jones trained Louisiana Derby winner Friesan Fire returns for the Preakness after running off of a 7 week layoff in the Derby. Combine that with a terrible start and horrendous trip overall that resulted in a minor foot injury and it?s easy to see why people are willing to draw a line through his Derby performance in which he beat just one horse Jockey Gabriel Saez smartly wrapped up on him through the stretch when he was hopelessly beaten and it was obvious he wasn?t going to be in the money.

Finally, last place Derby finisher Flying Private will join stablemate Luv Gov in the starting gate for trainer d. Wayne Lukas. Just 1 for 11 in his career, Flying Private broke from the outside post 19 in the Derby and raced wide throughout before stopping. Alan Garcia rides.

 

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Preakness Stakes - Bottom Line

Preakness Stakes - Bottom Line

Preakness Stakes - Bottom Line

134th Preakness Stakes
Post Horse Trainer/Jockey Bottom Line
1 Big Drama
David Fawkes
John Velazquez I've never been a fan of this horse because he's always seemed to be in the right place at the right time. Now, he's in the wrong place on the rail without his trusty blinkers, a move I've never understood. Is the second jewel of the Triple Crown the place you want to make an equipment change? I don't think so.
2 Mine That Bird
Bennie "Chip" Woolley Jr.
Mike Smith I can honestly say, him crossing the wire first in the Derby was one of the most shocking things I've seen in my 32 plus years on this planet. The question we now need answered is was it a fluke? Unfortunately I can't say. I won't say I think he's the winner but do think he has a better chance than most people think he has, especially if the pace is hot and/or it rains.
3 Musket Man
Derek Ryan
Eibar Coa One of a few that had a clean trip in the Derby until he was involved in a deep stretch bumping incident. Also one of a handful that actually ran his race. Coming back in just two weeks might be asking a bit much of him, or any of the others that were in the same boat he was.
4 Luv Gov
D. Wayne Lukas
Jamie Theriot After all of these years, you'd think Lukas would have learned his lesson by now. Thank God this horse didn't keep the filly out of the race because it would have been a real travesty.
5 Friesan Fire
Larry Jones/Gabriel Saez One of a few in here that has me tossing and turning. If the real Friesan Fire shows up, he'll be right there. But the foot injury bothers me as does his wheeling back in just two weeks. Combine that with the fact that I think he'll be the "wiseguy" horse at post time and a shorter price than he should be and I'm thinking about trying to get him out of the number as opposed to in it.
6 Terrain
Albert Stall Jr.
Jeremy Rose He's drawn well, has a capable jock and trainer and will be at least 25-1. If the pace is hot, stranger things have happened. Just think back to two weeks ago. I won't go as far as to say he's a legitimate win candidate but his price makes him awfully appealing.
7 Papa Clem
Gary Stute
Rafael Bejarano Like Musket Man, he had a pretty clean trip until the stretch in the Derby and is one of the few that ran throughout. His work patterns are strange to say the least and I think he'll be the one affected the most by running back in two weeks, and I mean that in a bad way.
8 General Quarters
Tom McCarthy
Julian Leparoux Maybe he didn't like the slop in Kentucky, maybe the trip (he steadied twice) was his undoing or maybe he's just not good enough. Has a lot of questions to answer, but so do others in here. The difference is they'll be over bet while he'll be a juicy price. Of those who disappointed in the Derby, I think he's the one most likely to rebound and be right in the thick of things.
9 Pioneerof the Nile
Bob Baffert
Garrett Gomez Like many, I was surprised to see him lying third in the Derby but Gomez was obviously paying attention that day and knew you had to be close. The problem now is that his newfound speed may get him into a bad spot come Saturday as it appears that half the field would like to be sitting where he was in the Derby. A return to his off-the-pace style may be just what the doctor ordered in the Preakness. An obvious major player.
10 Flying Private
D. Wayne Lukas
Alan Garcia It's amazing how big D Wayne's ego is. This horse doesn't even belong on the undercard.
11 Take the Points
Todd Pletcher
Edgar Prado Pletcher did the right thing by resisting the temptation to run this guy in the Derby. Too bad he didn't keep that mindset this time around. Maybe the blinkers will help, but I can't imagine his connections are hoping for more than a minor share, which I think is a reach.
12 Tone It Down
William Komlo
Kent Desormeaux Desormeaux, who has won the Preakness twice with Real Quiet in 1998 and last year with Big Brown, must have been really desperate to take the mount on this horse for another crack at it this year. This horse is a complete throw out.
13 Rachel Alexandra
Steve Asmussen
Calvin Borel We can sit here for days talking about whether a filly should be running against colts, especially under these circumstances. She wasn't with her new connections for a day before it was announced that she'd try the Preakness after her old connections completely closed the door on her running against the boys. Many will bring up Eight Belles, while some will mention the success Rags to Riches had when she defeated Curlin in the Belmont two years ago. I'm siding with the latter folks and think she'll be right there when the Preakness dust settles.

 

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Preakness Stakes - Pros and Cons

Preakness Stakes - Pros and Cons

Preakness Stakes - Pros and Cons

134th Preakness Stakes
Post Horse Trainer/Jockey Pros Cons
1 Big Drama
David Fawkes
John Velazquez Finished first in last six starts.
Majority of his best work has come against Florida breds and sprinting.
Pedigree suggests he'll have distance limitations.
Sheds blinkers for this having worn them in all seven prior starts; may want to take off the pace which makes his rail draw a negative.
Making just his second start of the year.
Disqualified from win in Swale last out for bearing out through stretch; not a good sign for a horse making his first start off a layoff.
Gets new rider because Eibar Coa opted to ride Musket Man.

2 Mine That Bird
Bennie "Chip" Woolley Jr.
Mike Smith Won Kentucky Derby by daylight last out, coming home final ? mile in under 48 second.
Should get favorable pace set up in here.
Won over wet track last out; rain is possible for Saturday.
New rider Mike Smith won 1993 Preakness aboard Prairie Bayou.
Ran career best speed figure in third start off layoff last out; major bounce candidate.
Both starts over dry tracks weren't that good; did he freak in the slop?
Besides Derby, he hasn't faced or beaten much.
Calvin Borel takes off to ride Rachel Alexandra.

3 Musket Man
Derek Ryan
Eibar Coa Has won five of seven career starts and was third in other pair, including Derby.
Doesn't need to take his track with him as he's raced over five different courses and owns wins over four of them.
Raced well over wet track in Derby.
Coa stays here over Big Drama.
Didn't really kick in through stretch in Derby; these longer distances are probably pushing his limits a bit.
How is he going to handle running back in just two weeks?
Still hasn't run a triple digit speed figure.
Price is going to be shorter than it should be.

4 Luv Gov
D. Wayne Lukas
Jamie Theriot Not a single thing to like about this horse.
Took him ten starts to break his maiden, which came over a sloppy track.
Eligible for entry level allowance contest.
Highest speed figure is an 87.

5 Friesan Fire
Larry Jones/Gabriel Saez Trip in the Derby was terrible; can't blame those who are willing to toss it out.
Won three starts prior to Derby, all graded stakes, with blinkers.
Stalking running style reminds me of 2003 Preakness winner Funny Cide.
Sire A.P. Indy won 1992 Belmont Stakes; pedigree suggests his handle added distance.
Handled wet track well in Louisiana Derby romp two back.
Comes back in just two weeks after not running for seven weeks between his last two starts.
Best race was over sloppy track; did he move up because of track?
Grabbed a quarter in Derby and wasn't confirmed for this until Tuesday.
Like his :57 4/5 move before the Derby, that five furlongs in :58 2/5 is a little too quick for my liking.

6 Terrain
Albert Stall Jr.
Jeremy Rose Is making his third start off a layoff, Like Mine That Bird was in the Derby. Ran career high speed figure two starts back and is rounding into best number.
Has won 2 of 3 starts over dry track with lone defeat coming with blinkers.
Finished third in Louisiana Derby and fourth in Blue Grass despite bad trips in two starts this year.
Jeremy Rose knows Pimlico well and won the 2005 Preakness with a remarkable ride aboard Afleet Alex.
Highest speed figure is a 91.
Lone dirt wins came in maiden claimer and minor stakes at Mountaineer in sprints.
Leparoux chose to ride General Quarters over him.
Might just be a cut below the top three-year-olds.

7 Papa Clem
Gary Stute
Rafael Bejarano Topped out speed figure wise two starts back before his fourth place finish in the Derby; can he achieve a new top fig?
Pedigree presents a nice blend of stamina and speed.
Rated nicely in last few though he has plenty of speed to be right there early on.
Lone start on dry dirt resulted in Arkansas Derby victory.
Didn't like his workout earlier in the week at Pimlico and think it was unnecessary; perhaps the pressure of having a horse like this is getting to Stute.
I think Bejarano is overrated and hasn't had any success in the classics.
Don't like him coming back in two weeks.

8 General Quarters
Tom McCarthy
Julian Leparoux Was reported to come back full of mud in his eyes and nostrils after Derby which almost certainly affected his performance.
Has improved vastly since removing blinkers.
Appears to have formed an "in/out" for pattern in his last several starts with the Preakness being an "in" race.
Leparoux is one of the best riders in the country and stays here over Terrain.
Skeptical about what he faced down at Tampa and in Blue Grass.
He is his trainers' lone horse; McCarthy never faced this kind of pressure.
Not thrilled with his pedigree.
What if the Derby was just a case of him being a cut below the top ones?

9 Pioneerof the Nile
Bob Baffert
Garrett Gomez Won all four starts, all graded stakes, including CashCall Futurity and Santa Anita Derby last out; since changing barns before gutsy second in Derby.
Has trained extremely well on dirt since arriving in Kentucky for the Derby; sports solid half mile in :47 3/5 over at Churchill prior to shipping in..
Baffert has won the Preakness an impressive four times with Silver Charm in 1997, Real Quiet in 1998, Point Given in 2001 and War Emblem in 2002.
Has evolved from one run closer to stalking type due to lack of early pace in pair prior to Derby; it helped him immensely over speed favoring Churchill strip Derby day and probably got him second money.
Handled slop well in conventional dirt debut last out.
Though he's training brilliantly over it, he has never raced on a fast dirt track.
His highest Beyer figure is a 96 and he failed to improve off his synthetic numbers when he switched to dirt.
Seemed to have been getting tired in deep stretch in the Derby and a case could have definitely been made for him to come down; is this a bit out of his scope?
Two weeks may be asking a bit much.

10 Flying Private
D. Wayne Lukas
Alan Garcia Both his sire Fusaichi Pegasus and broodmare sire Unbridled won Triple Crown events.
Lukas has this five times with Codex in 1980, Tank's Prospect in 1985, Tabasco Cat in 1994, Timber Country in 1995 and Charismatic in 1999.
Eligible for entry level allowance contest; finished last in the Derby.
Highest Beyer figure is a 94.
Lone win came in maiden sprint.

11 Take the Points
Todd Pletcher
Edgar Prado Gets Prado back who's a perfect 2 for 2 on him.
Adds blinkers, an angle Pletcher has had tremendous success with.
Solid five furlong drill in 1:00 over the deep Belmont Park training track last Sunday.
Eligible for second level allowance contest.
Highest Beyer figure is a 99.
Both wins have come around one turn.
Never threatened in either graded stakes try.
Though he's had success with the angle, why is Pletcher making an equipment change in a Triple Crown event?
Pedigree says grass and not dirt.
Prado is slumping and hasn't had much success in this; Pletcher is winless here as well.

12 Tone It Down
William Komlo
Kent Desormeaux Not a single thing to like about this horse
Eligible for second level allowance contest.
Highest speed figure is an 87.
Couldn't win ungraded Tesio over Pimlico strip.
Trainer new to this stage.

13 Rachel Alexandra
Steve Asmussen
Calvin Borel Is 5 for 5 in her starts around two turns, including wins in three G2s and the G1 Kentucky Oaks last out.
Won lone start over sloppy track with greatest of ease.
Has the speed to lead the way yet rates off the pace kindly.
Is 5 for 5 with Borel, who stays here over Derby winner Mine That Bird.
Gets positive trainer change to Steve Asmussen who won this in 2007 with Curling.
She's a filly running against colts. It's as simple as that.
Coming back in just 15 days; two previous attempts at this resulted in losses.
Will be terribly over bet in the win pool.

 

[Lumi]

134th Preakness Stakes

134th Preakness Stakes

134th Preakness Stakes
Post Position Horse Jockey Trainer *Morning Line Odds
1 Big Drama John Velazquez David Fawkes 10-1
2 Mine That Bird Mike Smith Bennie "Chip" Woolley Jr. 9-2
3 Musket Man Eibar Coa Derek Ryan 10-1
4 Luv Gov Jamie Theriot D. Wayne Lukas 50-1
5 Friesan Fire Gabriel Saez Larry Jones 10-1
6 Terrain Jeremy Rose Albert Stall Jr. 30-1
7 Papa Clem Rafael Bejarano Gary Stute 8-1
8 General Quarters Julian Leparoux Tom McCarthy 20-1
9 Pioneerof the Nile Garrett Gomez Bob Baffert 5-1
10 Flying Private Alan Garcia D. Wayne Lukas 50/1
11 Take the Points Edgar Prado Todd Pletcher 30-1
12 Tone It Down Kent Desormeaux William Komlo 50-1
13 Rachel Alexandra Calvin Borel Steve Asmussen 9-5



*Morning Line Odds provided by Pimlico Race Course oddsmaker Frank Carulli

 

[Lumi]

Where the action is: The Preakness Stakes

Where the action is: The Preakness Stakes

Where the action is: The Preakness Stakes

Race Favorites: Rachel Alexandra +150, Mine that Bird and Pioneer of The Nile both at 5-1.

Most Bet on Horse: Almost 34 percent of action on our future to win The Preakness is on Rachel Alexandra, but with such low odds we're more than comfortable booking this action. We'll do pretty well if Rachel Alexandra wins the race. We're actually positioned very well on this race. At this point, we can only lose money if Flying Private wins.

Comments: When you hear people like D. Wayne Lukas rave about Rachel Alexandra, you can see why the filly is the favorite to win.

Rachel Alexandra is going to have her work cut out for her. The competition is pretty fierce. It is led by a Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird (+500). Some other contenders include Pioneer of the Nile (+500), the Derby runner up, the Louisiana Derby winner Friesan Fire (+650) and Big Drama (+1000), who has won six straight races.

One problem for Rachel Alexandra could be the condition of the track. Forecasters say a severe thunderstorm may hit the area in the late afternoon. While Rachel Alexandra did win her lone career start in sloppy conditions, wet tracks can cause unpredictable results.

Weather in Baltimore: 77?F Isolated T-Storms; Change of Preciption: 30 percent

Scratch(es): None

Prop of the Day: 2009 Preakness Stakes Matchup: Rachel Alexandra -300 vs. Mine That Bird +220