Some random Big 10 thoughts that I wanted to get down on paper before watching the games interferes with my handicapping ability.
. Play 'em, fade 'em, laugh at 'em or whatever
Ohio State
The conference is theirs to lose, but at Iowa won't be easy. . . Their nat'l title hopes depend on whether or not Tressel can can coach an explosive team that doesn't have a solid D. . . Troy Smith's maturation into a stud QB came at the expense of the suspect D's of ND, Illini, Minny and Indiana and his insistence that he is not a running QB will hurt the team. . .
Iowa
OLine is going to be a strength as always . . . 23-6 as a HF under Ferentz . . . 19-10 ATS after a SU loss under Ferentz . . .Run Defense always a strength and LB's won't be terribly downgraded from last year. . . Tate's going to have to bring along an inexperienced WR corp early in the year
Michigan
Could be 12-0 or 5-7 depending on outcome of ND game . . . The big house not as intimidating . . . So many changes (Coordinators, offensive mindset, linemen dropping weight) may be good in the long term, but may mean Carr's job in the short term . . . Bet with the streaks with this team.
Purdue
2005 Season got away from them and they've never been good when good things are expected . . . Painter as starter at QB was 3-2 ATS even though team 3-7-1 ATS . . . Tiller 29-17-2 as HF, 3-14-1 as AU . . . RB "issues" minimized by OL returning starters . . .
Penn State
Entirely different type of QB, but no major changes will be made to the offense. . . Dline and secondary weaker. . . the talent is young and they should be good by the end of the year, but ND, OSU and Michigan are all before 10/15 . . .
Michigan State
Always picked to be a sleeper and always disappoint . . . JUCO influx not going to be a good thing for a JL Smith coached team. . . 5-15 SU record in November last 6 years . . . Oline weakness will hamper Stanton
Wisconsin
Will continue to be ugly and solid . . . Calhoun was only playmaker, but OLine will keep offense servicable and defense should be a strength . . .
Northwestern
Basanez departure won't have the impact that is expected, Wildcats are primarily a running team . . . They have a great Oline and two above average RB's . . . Defense may even be worse this year
Indiana
Have let up 5+ yards/carry every year since 2002 . . . Wasn't competitive against the elite, but beat every team they could have last year . . .
Minnesota
RB's have bailed out Cupito since he was a frosh . . . 2 Returning OL . . . Defense below average . . . Mason 33-20 as fav
Illinois
Talent has been upgraded, gameplanning has been downgraded since Turner left . . . Team absolutely quit late last year, surprising for a first-year coach . . . possible statement games are on the road
Overall
Offensive lines are much better than defensive lines in this conference, expect early conference games to go over
Matchups that look good now
Iowa vs. Purdue - Ferentz off possible SU loss against Tiller on road following SU loss
Penn State vs. Michigan State - Lions coming into their own late season against a John L Smith team whose coaches are looking for work
Illinois vs. Michigan State - Illinois needs a big win this season. Michigan State may have a letdown if they beat ND
California vs. Minnesota - Minnesota learns that California isn't the schleps that are usually on their NC schedule
Northwestern vs. Miami (Oh) - NW shows that Basanez isn't missed
Ohio State
The conference is theirs to lose, but at Iowa won't be easy. . . Their nat'l title hopes depend on whether or not Tressel can can coach an explosive team that doesn't have a solid D. . . Troy Smith's maturation into a stud QB came at the expense of the suspect D's of ND, Illini, Minny and Indiana and his insistence that he is not a running QB will hurt the team. . .
Iowa
OLine is going to be a strength as always . . . 23-6 as a HF under Ferentz . . . 19-10 ATS after a SU loss under Ferentz . . .Run Defense always a strength and LB's won't be terribly downgraded from last year. . . Tate's going to have to bring along an inexperienced WR corp early in the year
Michigan
Could be 12-0 or 5-7 depending on outcome of ND game . . . The big house not as intimidating . . . So many changes (Coordinators, offensive mindset, linemen dropping weight) may be good in the long term, but may mean Carr's job in the short term . . . Bet with the streaks with this team.
Purdue
2005 Season got away from them and they've never been good when good things are expected . . . Painter as starter at QB was 3-2 ATS even though team 3-7-1 ATS . . . Tiller 29-17-2 as HF, 3-14-1 as AU . . . RB "issues" minimized by OL returning starters . . .
Penn State
Entirely different type of QB, but no major changes will be made to the offense. . . Dline and secondary weaker. . . the talent is young and they should be good by the end of the year, but ND, OSU and Michigan are all before 10/15 . . .
Michigan State
Always picked to be a sleeper and always disappoint . . . JUCO influx not going to be a good thing for a JL Smith coached team. . . 5-15 SU record in November last 6 years . . . Oline weakness will hamper Stanton
Wisconsin
Will continue to be ugly and solid . . . Calhoun was only playmaker, but OLine will keep offense servicable and defense should be a strength . . .
Northwestern
Basanez departure won't have the impact that is expected, Wildcats are primarily a running team . . . They have a great Oline and two above average RB's . . . Defense may even be worse this year
Indiana
Have let up 5+ yards/carry every year since 2002 . . . Wasn't competitive against the elite, but beat every team they could have last year . . .
Minnesota
RB's have bailed out Cupito since he was a frosh . . . 2 Returning OL . . . Defense below average . . . Mason 33-20 as fav
Illinois
Talent has been upgraded, gameplanning has been downgraded since Turner left . . . Team absolutely quit late last year, surprising for a first-year coach . . . possible statement games are on the road
Overall
Offensive lines are much better than defensive lines in this conference, expect early conference games to go over
Matchups that look good now
Iowa vs. Purdue - Ferentz off possible SU loss against Tiller on road following SU loss
Penn State vs. Michigan State - Lions coming into their own late season against a John L Smith team whose coaches are looking for work
Illinois vs. Michigan State - Illinois needs a big win this season. Michigan State may have a letdown if they beat ND
California vs. Minnesota - Minnesota learns that California isn't the schleps that are usually on their NC schedule
Northwestern vs. Miami (Oh) - NW shows that Basanez isn't missed