I do lots of following, and a little tailing around here when I'm on the same side as the cappers I keep up with, but don't often post my plays.
I like two games tonight... enough where I think they're worthy of posting, largely because I feel I have some insight, and because I'd be on these plays regardless of which side the cappers I tend to follow lean...
Wisconsin -6: It's moved to 6' in some places, but I'd buy the half just in case. Be warned, I am a Badger fan so this is technically a "homer" pick, but with being a fan comes increased insight, as I actually see every game, not just the stats. I think Indiana is simply underwhelming in the Big10, and even though they rarely fail to show up, Bo Ryan's squad puts everything they've got into every game, and if a guy isn't (which like I said, is unlikely)... they are just deep enough that the next man up will come in and still match up with the guy he's matched up against. Wisconsin is really in that pre-tournament zone, disciplined and playing their best ball (especially Taylor), pushing for a good seed and an upset chance in their conference tourney, as well as (of course) a solid seed in the Big Dance. I'm predicting an all-around solid performance here; and my take-a-stab guess is that they win by 11. I would tread lightly only if you're 1)weary of guys betting their home team, and/or 2)afraid that a game that likely won't go over 130 doesn't leave a ton of room for a blowout.
South Carolina +4.5: This one is easy... or at least, my rationale is simple . Tennessee is technically the better team, by a little, but they simply aren't disciplined... and really never have been. SC is certainly no slouch, and playing at home on a big night, I think they bring some real energy. And like Wisconsin, SC tends to control the pace, which should take Tennessee even further out of their zone; I see a lot of dumb shots (mostly 3's... which hopefully don't go in) and lots of turnovers. Most of the money is on the Vols as well, so I think this line is a couple points inflated. I don't see any reason why this shouldn't be -1 or -1', and even then, I'd certainly consider SC. With that said, I think taking them on the ML (+175) would be entirely worthwhile too, but I generally like taking the points just in case. You never know when these games will come down to the wire.
And... parlay them for a little bit as well. 'Cuz why not?
opcorn2
BOL :0074
I like two games tonight... enough where I think they're worthy of posting, largely because I feel I have some insight, and because I'd be on these plays regardless of which side the cappers I tend to follow lean...
Wisconsin -6: It's moved to 6' in some places, but I'd buy the half just in case. Be warned, I am a Badger fan so this is technically a "homer" pick, but with being a fan comes increased insight, as I actually see every game, not just the stats. I think Indiana is simply underwhelming in the Big10, and even though they rarely fail to show up, Bo Ryan's squad puts everything they've got into every game, and if a guy isn't (which like I said, is unlikely)... they are just deep enough that the next man up will come in and still match up with the guy he's matched up against. Wisconsin is really in that pre-tournament zone, disciplined and playing their best ball (especially Taylor), pushing for a good seed and an upset chance in their conference tourney, as well as (of course) a solid seed in the Big Dance. I'm predicting an all-around solid performance here; and my take-a-stab guess is that they win by 11. I would tread lightly only if you're 1)weary of guys betting their home team, and/or 2)afraid that a game that likely won't go over 130 doesn't leave a ton of room for a blowout.
South Carolina +4.5: This one is easy... or at least, my rationale is simple . Tennessee is technically the better team, by a little, but they simply aren't disciplined... and really never have been. SC is certainly no slouch, and playing at home on a big night, I think they bring some real energy. And like Wisconsin, SC tends to control the pace, which should take Tennessee even further out of their zone; I see a lot of dumb shots (mostly 3's... which hopefully don't go in) and lots of turnovers. Most of the money is on the Vols as well, so I think this line is a couple points inflated. I don't see any reason why this shouldn't be -1 or -1', and even then, I'd certainly consider SC. With that said, I think taking them on the ML (+175) would be entirely worthwhile too, but I generally like taking the points just in case. You never know when these games will come down to the wire.
And... parlay them for a little bit as well. 'Cuz why not?
opcorn2 BOL :0074
