This version of the Mariners offense hasn't fared that well versus the elite pitchers in the baseball. I'm not seeing a ton of reasons to think the home squad wins this match up often enough to warrant backing them at even money.
Colon has handled them twice in the past 10 days, CJ Wilson beat them 1-0 last week in Anaheim. Even Joe Blanton looked good against the Mariners lumber. The Mariners did beat AJ Griffin when Bob Melvin inexplicably walked Saunders to face Henry Blanco. The Mariners did beat Bud Norris, and they deserve some credit for that, but not too much when you consider which team he pitches for.
As the covers story indicated, the Pirates were an Under machine last week, so that's also an option tonight.
Moving forward, Pirates at -109 seems to be the best play. The Pirates have been less than average at the plate vs LHP and Safeco Joe has shown a remarkable ability to pitch in this ballpark, so that is cause for concern . . . . but is it enough concern to avoid backing the Buccos at -109? I'm not seeing it.