REGULAR SEASON:
Here are stats from 114 NFL games that had a money line posted.
Overall, 79 of the 114 favorites (69.3 percent) won their game outright, although only 54 favorites (47.4 percent) covered the point spread.
The numbers are more revealing when you break down the betting spreads into groups:
Under 3 points (24 games) favs won 15 and lost 9 (62.5%)
3.5 to 5.5 points (40 games) favs won 23 and lost 17 (57,.5%)
6 or more points (50 games) favs won 41 and lost 9 (82%)
For money line bettors, the limited sampling would indicate betting a team to win straight up when the spread is 6 points or more is risky. The dog only won 18 % of the time.
The dog did much better, of course, when the line was less than 3 points. It won 37.5% of its contests.
Somewhat surprisingly, the underdog did best when receiving between 3 and 6 points, when it won 42.5 % of the time.
==========================
POSTSEASON:
Postseason line brings out the best in favorites.
When the NFL moves from regular season games to playoff spectaculars, the wise sport gamblers will adjust their handicapping approach.
Since 1991 (excluding the "neutral field" Super Bowl Matchups), away playoff teams are winning at just 45% against the when underdogs and 50% as favorites.
Favorites do seem more capable of covering a number during postseason play.
BIG favorites have been exceptional bets for over a decade, while the small favorite are suspect.
There are many possible explanations for these reversals from what we usually see with regular season events.
In the playoffs obviously it's a "win or you're done" situation, so motivation should not be an issue.
Coaches will not hold back the best plays and will not sit on a lead to the extent that they do in the regular season.
(1992 Houston Oilers up 38-3 in the 2nd half only to lose the game outright 41-38 to the Bills)
The basic guidelines for playoff betting would be to give the favorites more consideration you would in regular season contests. Also its advisable not to readily take BIG points on an underdog without significant evidence.
The next idea is to look at offensive and defensive rankings (yards per game).
On the whole there's a slight tendency during the normal schedule of games for an emphasis on home teams being able to run the ball and away teams to pass the ball to achieve success.
It's rare to find teams in the playoffs with bad rankings in any major area.
Some of the "home teams need to run, away teams need to pass" bias appears to hold true.
Home teams among the Top 10 in rushing have faired well against the line (55%) while away teams that have struggled to pass for yardage have covered the spread only 38% of the time.
On defense, teams with a passing defense ranked in the Top 20 have been solid ATS 57%, while away teams ranked 11th or worse in rushing "D" were only 35%vs. the line.
Of course there is NO guarantee these trends will continue to remain true during postseason play.
However, for the time being it's certainly a smart move, or even a sharp one, to respect the powerful among the NFL squads during the postseason.
Favored by:
10 + points 60%
5 to 9.5 points 60%
0 to 4.5 points 48%
Here are stats from 114 NFL games that had a money line posted.
Overall, 79 of the 114 favorites (69.3 percent) won their game outright, although only 54 favorites (47.4 percent) covered the point spread.
The numbers are more revealing when you break down the betting spreads into groups:
Under 3 points (24 games) favs won 15 and lost 9 (62.5%)
3.5 to 5.5 points (40 games) favs won 23 and lost 17 (57,.5%)
6 or more points (50 games) favs won 41 and lost 9 (82%)
For money line bettors, the limited sampling would indicate betting a team to win straight up when the spread is 6 points or more is risky. The dog only won 18 % of the time.
The dog did much better, of course, when the line was less than 3 points. It won 37.5% of its contests.
Somewhat surprisingly, the underdog did best when receiving between 3 and 6 points, when it won 42.5 % of the time.
==========================
POSTSEASON:
Postseason line brings out the best in favorites.
When the NFL moves from regular season games to playoff spectaculars, the wise sport gamblers will adjust their handicapping approach.
Since 1991 (excluding the "neutral field" Super Bowl Matchups), away playoff teams are winning at just 45% against the when underdogs and 50% as favorites.
Favorites do seem more capable of covering a number during postseason play.
BIG favorites have been exceptional bets for over a decade, while the small favorite are suspect.
There are many possible explanations for these reversals from what we usually see with regular season events.
In the playoffs obviously it's a "win or you're done" situation, so motivation should not be an issue.
Coaches will not hold back the best plays and will not sit on a lead to the extent that they do in the regular season.
(1992 Houston Oilers up 38-3 in the 2nd half only to lose the game outright 41-38 to the Bills)
The basic guidelines for playoff betting would be to give the favorites more consideration you would in regular season contests. Also its advisable not to readily take BIG points on an underdog without significant evidence.
The next idea is to look at offensive and defensive rankings (yards per game).
On the whole there's a slight tendency during the normal schedule of games for an emphasis on home teams being able to run the ball and away teams to pass the ball to achieve success.
It's rare to find teams in the playoffs with bad rankings in any major area.
Some of the "home teams need to run, away teams need to pass" bias appears to hold true.
Home teams among the Top 10 in rushing have faired well against the line (55%) while away teams that have struggled to pass for yardage have covered the spread only 38% of the time.
On defense, teams with a passing defense ranked in the Top 20 have been solid ATS 57%, while away teams ranked 11th or worse in rushing "D" were only 35%vs. the line.
Of course there is NO guarantee these trends will continue to remain true during postseason play.
However, for the time being it's certainly a smart move, or even a sharp one, to respect the powerful among the NFL squads during the postseason.
Favored by:
10 + points 60%
5 to 9.5 points 60%
0 to 4.5 points 48%
