Replacement ref conspiricy fans

[yyz]

I love a good conspiracy theory as much as the next sponge, so let's try this on for size. The refs seem to be all anyone is talking about. TV, radio, blogs......refs, refs, refs. It's gotten to the point that Las Vegas is claiming they have to adjust the lines because of them. Ok, if you say so.

It just sounds like a lot of hype and build up, just like you might see with any other commodity. If you believe "they fix" the games, and they want to sucker players in.......maybe today is the day?

The buzz out there, is that this week is the largest average game total in the history of the NFL. Voices in Vegas are basing this solely on the replacement officials. Well, I say......if the officials control this, than they have COMPLETE control. If they are now suckering bettors into thinking the "overs" are locks.....isn't it time to go the other way?

It's not like "overs" have been the flavor of the day this season, and they are adjusting the numbers to catch up. Totals have an expected mix of overs and unders so far this season. I think it's about 3 games above .500 right now.


So, I'll back the conspiracy theory up with "under" plays on every game with a total 45 or taller.


One Unit Plays

TBay/Dal Under 45'
Det/Ten Under 47'
Cin/Was Under 49
KC/NO Under 52'
Atl/SD Under47'
Pit/Oak Under 45'
NE/Bal Under 49'

 

[william13]

i like the way you think ......... g/l

 

[yyz]

YTD

3-4-0

1 Unit Plays 3-4-0 -1.4
2 Unit Plays 0-0-0
3 Unit Plays 0-0-0
4 Unit Plays 0-0-0


Unders went 10-6 last week, I had the wrong idea about which way to go. (Nothing new to me!)



So, with the lockout over, what do we look for? I figure the "powers that be" need to give the gamblers a kiss on the cheek. Perfect night for it, too. One game, it's Thursday......so the winnings can be lost over the next 4 days with no problem!

"The Public" is all over Baltimore, yet the line is coming down. That should tell you to take Cleveland.

I think the public gets their refund tonight, before getting bitch-slapped again this weekend.


1 Unit Play

Baltimore -11

 

[ldabdou]

I totally agree with this thinking..lol.:SIB

 

[Zamo]

YTD

3-4-0

1 Unit Plays 3-4-0 -1.4
2 Unit Plays 0-0-0
3 Unit Plays 0-0-0
4 Unit Plays 0-0-0


Unders went 10-6 last week, I had the wrong idea about which way to go. (Nothing new to me!)



So, with the lockout over, what do we look for? I figure the "powers that be" need to give the gamblers a kiss on the cheek. Perfect night for it, too. One game, it's Thursday......so the winnings can be lost over the next 4 days with no problem!

"The Public" is all over Baltimore, yet the line is coming down. That should tell you to take Cleveland.

I think the public gets their refund tonight, before getting bitch-slapped again this weekend.


1 Unit Play

Baltimore -11

I will be the FIRST person to acknowledge I am playing a bet as a tail...I do this with Vicc and William and acknowledge it when I do make a play. I have been thinking about laying off this game...as I promised I would NOT make a wager until refs are back. Thankfully, I didn't miss much time...but will admit, I will spend majority of Sunday watching Ryder Cup as I am a golf nut! Favorite day of the year is Masters Sunday....Superbowl doesn't come close unless my Cowboys are in it....and if that is the case I will always be there!! :00hour :00hour

I have been thinking of this game tonight and know it opened at 13 and went down to 11? To me.....I see no problem how Baltimore doesnt cover 11. I wouldn't touch the bet with a 10 foot pole if the line stayed at 13, but moving to 11.....something just doesn't add up. I also like the under...but those that follow me know I cant pick a winner on a total. I typically refuse to play unless I am tailing someone I trust here for fun and make it only a 1X wager....nothing more.

YYZ....over the years I ALWAYS follow your threads and think you are by far one of the BEST here...hands down!! Insert kiss ass comment here if you like. :00x6

Anyway...I like your logic and with line going down to -11, may be worth a 1X play on Baltimore. I also just got a call from a mush friend who told me he LOVES Cleveland tonight....another incentive! :mj07:

Anyways...thanks for posting....May risk 1X on Baltimore as it seems like a decent bet to me! :0074

Anyone have an update on public % on BAltimore?? No doubt Vegas has CLEANED up last few weeks and do see them throwing a bone here possibly....but be careful....not in their interest obviously. Also, when Baltimore does play like ass in the past...it is on the road after a big win and NOT at home. Short week for Cleveland doesn't help.

 

[ldabdou]

65-67% on Balty