revenge my ass

[mack the knife]

just wanted to get your attention. I have read a number of posts referring to revenge, and a number of times saw data to justify a play that has no theoretical relationship to the eventual outcome. Pit's record on MNF might have a slight causal relationship to tonight's outcome, but very unlikely. One, they likely played a lot of those at home. Two, they were likely the favorite, so they should have won. Three, they might not have won by 4 or more.

As for the revenge, I have seen no data to support the theory in the pro game. Of course every time a team gets beat when they didn't expect to they are mad. That doesn't mean they go out an (1) win and (2) cover the next time they meet. Instead of looking at NE vs PITT, you should look at Teams that lost as home favs in playoffs versus the same team the very next time they meet, and further break it down by home/away, and fav/dog. You just don't have that many cases of revenge of this nature, but to speculate that revenge will be had by pitt is just not justified. Do you really think it is that easy? Pitt is mad, so they win the next time? If it were that easy, every game would be predictable based on who won the last meeting....

MTK

 

[cooz3]

good point...see greenbay vs. atlanta yesterday...the falcons were the only team to defeat (not cover) the pack at home last year...and they had thier hands full yesterday (didnt cover)...cooz

 

[mack the knife]

there is a "theory" running around, from years past, originated by the guy known as "stan the man" at axcis sports. He theorizes that revenge has a role only in certain games--horrible defeats. If a team sees defeat snatched from the jaws of victory (i.e., cle losing to kc yesterdcay), play on the team that lost their lunch the next time the two meet at the same place (so play on cleve next time they host kc). So, pay attention to matchups and look for teams that lost in the most horrific ways (not just any loss), and bet on them to rise up and smite the team that did them....

mtk

 

[GM]

Revenge is one of the most overused, misused angles in football. For all the talk about it, it rarely is a good reason to play a game. It's a factor I have learned to ignore.

 

[mack the knife]

In the pros, I have to wholheartedly agree. I think I've seen data suggesting college revenge might work, at least in more cases than the pro game...anyone w/ info about college revenge?

 

[acehistr8]

Revenge was a very big factor in capping WNBA games this year.

 

[mack the knife]

can you explain? How do you know it was important?

mtk

 

[acehistr8]

Because teams that would get whipped on by 20 points would win outright the next time they met. Is this more of a metaphysical question, like how do I know what was exactly in their heads? No. However there were 3 of us that hit 60% this year in the WNBA forum and we found more often than not that revenge played a big factor in their games later on in the year.

 

[mack the knife]

I was asking because I would guess that it doesn't matter. And, when people claim it matters, that doesn't make it so. Even when they win, say 60%, it does not mean that revenge did the work...it could be "parity" coupled with home court advantage. Revenge is a psychological state of mind, a desire for retribution for prior "insult". Do the lady players really care that much about the particular teams/players that beat them? I can't see it. As a counter hypothetical, what you are calling "revenge" could simply be home court advantage...or, "revenge" could be correlated with the outcome, but not causally reltated. I don't know--just throwing things out there...I like to see systematic data so the belief that revenge matters doesn't persuade me....not that it might not be happening....

MTK

 

[yyz]

What about "Revenge of the Nerds"?

Huge underdogs, they came through with flying colors!

 

[Neemer]

However there were 3 of us that hit 60% this year in the WNBA forum and we found more often than not that revenge played a big factor in their games later on in the year.

cUZ bitches hold grudges longer than dudes...

 

[Blitz]

Funny Chit Neemer!!!

 

[THE KOD]

LOL Neemer !



Scott-Atlanta

 

[GENO]

Neemer funny BUT ABSOLUTELY the TRUTH ! take it from a former HIGH school basketball official, a coach once told me to watch so & so on the opposing team as they would be head-hunting and he was right, from first hand experience with coaching girls for years they do hold a grudge for a long time from one year to the next even.

 

[mack the knife]

Ok, so maybe revenge should work in the wnba....does anybody have the data to show that it worked before this year? It has to work last year for the theory to hold....does it?

mtk