Riffs Degen HSF Special and College Plays Championship Week

[Riff-Raff]

Record to Date:

HSF Degen: 50-42-2 (+3.4 units)
College Football: 111-107-4 (-18.3 units)


Will update record a little later-

Today HSF plays.. For those of you who have been waiting with baited breathe and adrenaline. Never fear as my degenerate ways are in a flurry..

From the Mountaineer state..

4pm Class AA Championship

Mingo Central (13-0) vs Fairmont Senior (10-2)....it's the Miners vs the Polar Bears... I had a huge write up then crash... So you are getting the abridged version.

Play 2 units on Mingo - 8'..WIN (Final: 32-7)....the line opened at 6' *Still have to play Mingo here as they haven't been tested all season averaging 48 ppg and allowing 11.8. The team is at its first state title game. They have been ranked #1 all season. Their fortunes follow Jr QB Jeremy Dillon, who is a candidate for the States top Athlete. He has accounted for over 3,800 yards of total offense w/55 Tds. The kid is 6'5" and 195 lbs. In the back field is RB Joe Hunt (1,294 yards w/23 Tds) Dillon has a bevy of WRs to throw to, and is getting back his favorite target, a Frosh WR Drew Hatfield (60 catches for 713 yards w/11 Tds)... Mingo has outscored opponents in the playoffs 128-36....**Note: not that this team needs extra motivation but this is their Coaches Yogi Kinder (wish I was called Yogi) who is retiring...

Fairmont enters this game after defeating its biggest nemesis Bridgeport in Double OT last week. A game they won 22-21 as they went for 2. It was significant because Bridgeport was the defending state 3 time Champs. They always had Fairmonts number, and in fact won the regular season game 17-14. Fairmont is led by the Coach's son, a true dual threat QB Jake Abbott (1,538 yards through the air w/16 TDs, and 1,069 yards w/22 TDs on the ground) No doubt Mingo will game plan for him. Fairmont average 33.8 ppg allowing 14.9.

Bottom line is that Fairmont expended a ton of emotion, physical energy and mental energy, and focus in last week's game. It will be tough to overcome those emotions and try to get up for a devastating team in Mingo. No one has been able to hang with the Miners yet and while I expect that the Polar Bears will hang for a half, too much Mingo will pull away and win comfortably.

 

[Riff-Raff]

Another HSF play...

1 unit on O'Dea/Kamiakin Under 46.... WIN (Final Kamiakin 14 O'Dea 7)...*This game appears to be fairly evenly matched...

Kamiakin enters the contest beating 2 time defending state champs, and Eastside Catholic 30-27. Eastside was vying for its 5th consecutive appearance in Class 3A state championship game. In the game, Senior QB Zach Borischs is a dual threat who had 4 Tds w/ 333 yards of total offense. He rushed 23 times for 165 yards w/2 Tds. (168 yards through the air w/2 tds)... Kamiakin averages 42.2 ppg, allow 13.8.

O'Dea also defeated Eastside this year by 3 also. In last week's game the Irish beat Meadowdale 35-9. Jr RB Jamyn Patu rushed for 213 yards w/3 Tds. This is the Fighting Irish 8th visit to the state championship. They have won it 3 times. Patu will be the #1 threat as he has 1,350 yards w/11 TDs. Irish haven't seen the championship since 2011. Coach Monte Kohler is in his 32nd year.

Why I'm on the Under? A little digging finds that O'Deas starting QB Benjamin Beale won't play in this match as he injured his knee last week. This will mean a Soph QB (3rd String) will lead the Irish.
Kamiakin is evidently beat up also. Both teams will try to run the ball. Think this will be low scoring.. Gl

Back with California Championship..

 

[Riff-Raff]

California HSF Championships...

Div 3..7:30 pm...

La Mirada / Edison... Over 54'...2 units... WIN (Final: Edison 44 La Mirada 24... Also, Mirada -5'....2 units.. LOSS..
*I think the number is reasonable to get the Over. Also, I expect a tight game but expect the Matadors to hold serve. . Mirada Matadors opened at -4' and its gone up 1. Mirada is the defending CIF and State Champs. QB Tristan Meyer has thrown for 2,200 yards w/35 TDs. He has already won a state title and CIF Title. His numbers over the years are impressive as he has racked up more than 4,000 yards w/62 TDs. (He has a 70% completion rate) Mirada is going for its 4th CIF crown. A huge factor is that RB Nick Hernandez has returned from a knee injury. He had 142 yards on 39 carries in last week's 36-20 victory over Los Alamitos. Hernandez was described to me by my friend who was at the game as a Bulldozer. He said kids were bouncing off him.

Edison Coach Dave White is in his final game of an successful tenure of 31 seasons. This will no doubt be an emotional game for Coach and his kids. Edison is averaging 40 points per game in the playoffs. Edison QB Griffin O'Connor has several great receivers to throw to. WR David Atencio is a unique story as he tore his ACL in the beginning of the season. He went to Europe for a special surgery and is playing again after a 12 week turn around. Since his return in Week 6 he has 485 yards w/6 TDs. The Chargers run a spread attack.

Why I like the Matadors? Mirada is at home and has been here before. They have their stud RB back. They have beat 3 teams this season in the Southern Section Top 10 (Orange Lutheran, San Clemente (in Div 2 championship) and Los Alamitos)... Miradas 2 losses in case you are wondering? Mater Dei and Bosco (both playing in a rematch tomorrow in the Div 1 Championship)


San Clemente/Murrieta Valley Over 80....2 units... PUSH.(Final San Clemente 45 Murrieta Valley 35).... *I said I wasn't going to do this, however, these two teams have a ton of firepower so I'll take my chances. Murrieta is on a 9 game winning streak. They breezed past La Habra last week 63-42. Meanwhile, the Tritons survived a 41-35 win.

Murrieta Nighthawks have Senior RB Olita Palmer, he had 5 TDs last week. He has 6 straight 100 yard games. Interesting that Murrieta has 2 losses on the season. One to Grandview from Co 50-49 (a team that lost to Valor Christian 66-38 in the playoffs) and Ranch Cucamonga 41-20 who was undefeated at the time. Murrieta averages 51.5 ppg but gives 32. Their offense averages 561.9 yards per game. Olita (5'8" 185 lbs) averages a whopping 173.8 on the ground.. He is responsible for 14.3 points per game while rushing for 2,259 yards w/28 TDs. . Soph QB Hank Bachmeier has thrown for 3,632 yards w/44 TDs and only 3 Int. WR Marquis Spiker has 1,494 yards w/23 TDs. Also, RB Lika Palmer has run for over 850 yards in last 3 playoff games. Last week, he had 272 yards on 38 carries w/4 rushing TDs with 1 in the air. **However, the Nighthawks D gave up 6 TDs and 500 yards of offense last week.

San Clemente is no slouch... The big concern was a loss to a very good Mission Viejo team 41-3. This is the Tritons 3rd straight championship opportunity (0-2 in championship). They average 36.7 ppg and have held opponents to 20 ppg. They are the #3 ranked team in Div 2. San Clemente is led by Senior QB Jack Sears (USC bound)... Sears has had a hand in all 3 CIF championships. When he was a Soph he played backup to current USC QB Sam Darnold. Darnold was injured in the title game in 2014, Sears went in to try and rally the troops, but he finished 1 of 10 for 27 yards losing to Trabucco Hills 44-37. He got his feet wet but wasn't ready. Fast forward a year, and Sears lost a heart break to LA Habra 39-36 on a last second Hail Mary! Now, with 2 championships under his belt and exposure in the prestigious Elite 11 QB Camp, he is a dynamic leader and a student of the game. In his 2 full years as starter, he has thrown for over 2,000 yards each year and has a combined 68 Tds. with just 4 picks. He is also the teams 2nd leading rusher this year. In two seasons he has 16 Tds on the ground with over 800 yardsfor a dual threat to Defenses. This year, he has thrown for 2,033 yards w/31 Tds with 2 Ints. He has run for exactly 836 yards w/7 Tds. Senior RB Brandon Reaves has 1,839 all-purpose yards w/24 TDs. He has caught 60 passes for 705 yards w/10 TDs. He also gained 669 yards on 55 carries w/11 more TDs on the ground. JR Austin Whittsett is the leading rusher with 914 yards on 137 carries.

Why I'm on the OVER? Im not sure if there is going to be much D in this game. 80 points is a lot but I think it will be played in the 40s so we should be good. As I wrote this I talked myself into playing 2 units on San Clemente +7...WIN.. . I think this Sears kid can keep it close. Good luck!

 

[Riff-Raff]

Colorado TT over 23....4 units.. LOSS (kinda feel like I got buffaloed on that pic)

 

[Musca]

Great Call

Great Call

Mingo Central fell behind 7-0 then scored the next 32... They even left points on the table. Good call.

 

[Riff-Raff]

Mingo Central fell behind 7-0 then scored the next 32... They even left points on the table. Good call.

Thanks.. Looks like Mingo came to play..

 

[Riff-Raff]

Sat HSF plays..

From the Mountaineer state...

Martinsburg +3 over Spring Valley.. 2 units....
WINNA (Final Martin..49 SV 7)*I knew this line was wacky!

Class Triple AAA (9 am) Martinsburg Bulldogs (13-0) vs Spring Valley Timberwolves (12-1)...I was a bit surprised to find Martinsburg getting the chalk here as they are the #1 ranked team for this classification. Be it as it may, never look a gift horse or whore in the mouth. The Bulldogs have yet to be tested in the playoffs. In their last 3 games, they beat Hedgesville (69-0), George Washington (34-0) and Morgantown (51-0) to get back to the title game after a 2 year absence that followed 4 straight titles from 2010-2013. The shut outs are what this team brings on D. In fact, they at one point didn't give up a TD in 20 quarters of football. They still haven't given up a 4th quarter TD all year. They have outscored opponents in the playoffs 154-0. Only allowing 7.6 points all season. QB Tyson Bagent 2,203 yards of rushing w/18 Tds. WR Issac Brown heads up the receiving corps with 58 catches for 891 yards w/11 TDs.

Timberwolves are playing in their first state title game. Spring Valley identity is run first and at them. They have a big athletic line. They average 365 yards rushing per game. (Martinsburg only allows 53 yards on the ground, and 136.5 total. The Wolves will run 6 different backs at the Bulldogs. QB Derek Johnson will spread the ball around in the air and ground. Wolves want to run and control the clock. In last week's game the Timberwolves had to have a goal line stand then had to march 99 yards to score the go ahead score as time expired.

Again, I'm not sure why the wrong team is favored but I will take the gift. Lean to the under 59' too as both teams employ top Defenses.




Sat 6am... Div 3A

St Mary's (11-0) vs East Bridgewater (10-2)....play on East Bridgewater +6'...2 units.. WINNA ..(Final: Bridgewater 34 St Mary's 8)*Last year these two hooked up in the Div 5 state semis in which the Vikings won 26-18. The Vikings lost in the title game 36-34. Bridgewater lost several key players to graduation. On the opposite side St Mary's returns several players. Bridgewater starts a Soph QB Liam Levangie, which would usually scare me off, however, the kids dad is the Red Sox Bullpen Coach Dana Levangie. Liam starts on the Varsity Basketball team and the Varsity Baseball team. He has ice water in his veins. East B has 16 Seniors playing compared to St Mary's 9. Still, Vikings had to replace 12 Seniors.

In the playoffs the Spartans have outscored opponents 112-38 from 3 games. They are averaging 37.3 ppg and allowing 12.8. St Mary's Jr RB Calvin Johnson leads Div 3A in scoring with 29 TDs. (9 of which have come from over 40 yards). Spartans have one of the highest scoring offenses in 3A.

I think Bridgewater can hang here as this team reloads on talent each year.I think this one could be tight. Play East Bridgewater.


Div 3 (8 am)

Hanover (11-0) vs Grafton (12-0)....play...Hanover/ Grafton Over 40...2 units..LOSS (Final: Hanover 24 Grafton 0)*Hanover has dominated all season averaging 34.7 points per game, while allowing 11.6. Senior RB Brad Rogers has piled up 1,298 yards w/24 TDs on 164 carries...in 9 games. (He has 4 TDs in each of last 2 games).

Grafton counters with Senior RB Ifeatu Melifonwu (6'4" 190 lbs)... Going to Syracuse, he has 1,803 yards rushing on 178 carries w/25 TDs and 3 receiving TDs.... His brother is a standout Safety at Uconn and an NFL prospect.

Hanover has dominated this season due to an overly gigantic O Line that can move mountains. Hanover Senior QB Wyatt Shisler (6'2" 205 lbs) throws and runs as a legit dual threat. Last year he was a DB, but made the move to QB. He has only thrown 89 passes but has 1,010 yards w/13 Tds through the air. On the ground, he is the team's 2nd leading rusher behind Rogers. He has run for 544 yards w/9 Tds on the ground. This team runs behind one of the best Olines in the state. Hanover runs a multiple set offense (includes Power I and Pro formations) They also like to run the read option. Hanover won its semi final game 54-13. The school is hungry for a title, as it hasn't been to state since earning 4 consecutive trips from 1973-1976. This year's offense has been unstoppable high octane.

I think Hanover rolls in this one.. But, -17 is too rich to however, I do like the over here.. Gl

 

[Riff-Raff]

Add..

10:30 am Div 4

Mashpee Falcons (11-1) vs Wahconah Regional (10-10)

Played 2 units on the Under 50'..WINNA (Final: Mashpotato 34 WRHS 13) *Simply too close to call. A small lean to Wahconah as they have an intimidating Oline. Very big and physical. Mashpee won the Div 6 state final last year 28-8 over St Bernard's. Mashpee loses 9 starters to graduation. In the off season they had to rebuild their whole Oline. Mashpee does have the same QB they have had for the past 4 years.

This is Wahconahs 3rd trip to the title game since 2012. The Falcons won it last year. Senior QB Will Genaway is a true dual threat passing for 1,300 yards w/20 Tds. While running for 487 yards with 7 Tds. JR. Tanner
Hastings (905 yards w/13 tds.)...



Div 2A.. 12:30.pm..

Marblehead Magicians (11-0) vs Falmouth (12-0)....Another too close to call.

Played 2 Units on the Under 49... WINNA.. (Final: Foul-mouthed 34 Marbleheads 13) And 2 units on Falmouth -6....WINNA.. .*Marblehead Magicians? Are you kidding me? Magicians strike terror I'm the hearts of many... Yeah right. I almost bet against Marblehead because it's a lame mascot. And, Falmouth us the better team. These two are very close on paper. Marblehead Coach Jim Rudloff is in his 8th season (71-20). Magicians RB Jaason Lopez leads the offense with 15 Tds. Senior QB Drew Gally was the NEC Offensive player of the year...hecis a first year starter. On D Senior DE Bo Miller won the NEC Defensive player of the year.

Falmouth Senior TB Michael Lafrange and Senior QB Nick Couhig have combined for 35 of their teams Tds this year. Both teams are looking for their 1st state title and perfect season. QB Couhig leads a high flying triple option attack. Falmouth has trailed just once in all its games. I think the chalk here is reasonable.

Gl..... Be back with some later games and of course the Bosco / Mater Dei rematch.

 

[Riff-Raff]

Today's College Try..


Wiscy / Penn St Over 46.....4 units
W

Wyoming TT total Under 26'..3 units
W

Baylor TT Over 24...4 units
L

Arkansas St - 23' over Texas St... 6 L units

Florida / Alabama Over 40...3 units
W

Will be watching for value in halftime wagers..

 

[stwoody]

Dang dude, your crushing these Degen plays. I bet on Hanover from your info and they covered 21-0. Also had E Bridgewater and Martinsburg..keep it going.

What do you think of Duxsbury?

 

[Riff-Raff]

Dang dude, your crushing these Degen plays. I bet on Hanover from your info and they covered 21-0. Also had E Bridgewater and Martinsburg..keep it going.

What do you think of Duxsbury?

HSF has been very profitable today so far....... Martinsburg was up in the 4th quarter 35-7......I knew that line was Wacky!

Today Sat HSF...

3pm From Tom Brady House, we have the (11-1) Duxbury Dragons vs (9-3) Shrewsbury Colonials....

Bet: Dragons -10 over the Colons... 2 units..WIN.. (Final: Duxbury 40 Shrew 7) More if you can get some, but for posting privilege I digress...
(bought 2 more units... Same chalk..Shocker.

Duxbury average 41 ppg and allow 15.9. The Shrews average 25.8,while allowing nearly 20 points per game. Doesn't take a genius to read the disparity there. In 11 wins by the Drags they have won 9 of the games by +21 or more. Duxbury has 25 Seniors. Coach Dave Maimaton is in his 12th year in which he has compiled a respectable 118-24 record. Now, his nepatistic (is this a word? Or, did I make it up?) Son, Bobby is the states career leader in TD passes with 115. Through 11 games Dux outscored opposition 493-138. (In contrast, Shrew outscored 298-221) Bobby (Coaches Son) has 33 Td passes this season. His go to WR is Jake Miele w/10 TD receptions. **The Oline for Dux is huge and gigantic and very athletic. This is a huge mismatch.

The Colonials run the spread O. Able QB Drew Campanale has 20 TDs tossed. And he has run in 8 more. He has 1,419 yards w/20 TDs. If they can get the ground game going............. NAW, it ain't going to happen...

*2 units on the Over 55 (My # in College too)...LOSER... See you at the Window!

 

[Riff-Raff]

2 more DEGEN plays because you can't get enough...

7:30 pm Div 4A WA HSF Championship

(13-0) Camas Papermakers vs (13-0) Richland Bombers...2 units on Richland +9'... LOSS.. (Final: Camas 24 Richland 14)(the hook snagged me) .*Really should be a play against any team that calls itself the Papermakers... I mean what does the Coach tell the kids? "Go out there and deliver a huge Papercut, Guys!" OK, now that's out. This is Camas 2nd berth to the state championship in program history. This is the 14th consecutive season the Papermakers have reached the dance. Problem has been, they get the invite, but it doesn't go past that very far. CAMAS Coach Jon Eagle has been on the job 6 years, and in that time has lost only 7 times. Seems strange that they don't have the Championship. These two have been ranked #1 & #2 most of the season. MaxPreps actually have the Papermakers ranked #16 in the nation.
Camas hustles up to the LOS, quickly surveys, focus, and snaps the ball in near record time.... The idea is to try and catch the Defense napping and to run more Offensive plays from the LOS. The Camas Oline is a very close knit group that genuinely cares for each other. The cohesive unit is strong and athletic. The team wants to establish the run first. Camas is the 4A Greater St Helens League Champion. They have outscored opponents 46-13 in the playoffs. The offense is led by the League Offensive Player of the Year, QB Jack Colletto (2,662 yards e/26 Tds.. He has rushed for 1,165 yards w/20 more Tds. His top receiver is Cooper McNatt (47 catches for 899 yards w/9 Tds) WR Drake Owen has 47 catches for 717 yards w/7 Tds. MLB is Mike Matthews (Montana comnitt)... Co-Defensive Player of the Year. He just happens to be the #1 RB too.(Last week he had 97 yards rushing w/3 Tds.. 2 on the ground, 1 by air) The Defense is rugged. Last week, they held Sumner to 56 rushing yards, had 3 INTs, QB Colletto is also an outstanding Free Safety.

Richland and Camas are fairly close on paper. The like opponents really don't show a huge advantage. The Bombers will try to establish the run first. They also have a fairly large Oline. The Bombers have reached the State Title game 4 out of 7 years. Their top player is a behemoth, man child Brigham Whitby (6 ft 275 lbs) He was the top Olineman and Defensive Player of the Year in the Mid-Colombia conference. The Bombers also has Dontae Powell (6'5" 300 lbs). They aren't pushed around. RB Ben Stanfield has 1,035 w/11 Tds on the season. QB Paxton Stevens has passed for 2,711 yards w/36 Tds. RB Parker McCrary adds 733 yards w/14 Tds. Last week, Stevens was 6 of 11 for 164 yards (an average of 27 yards per pass) He threw 2 TD passes for 59 yards. So, he will go deep in the air. The Richland D helped the cause by holding Skyview to 67 yards rushing. Richland had 2 INTs and a fumble recovery.

Both teams are eerily similar. It's why I played the Bombers +9'....it just feels like way to many points. Both teams want to establish the run, however, it may be easier said than done as both Defenses bend but don't break. I also recommend playing a Unit on the Under 52'....WIN.. ..

Back in a minute with my Bosco / Mater Dei guess!

 

[Riff-Raff]

Finale....

Bosco +7 over Mater Dei....WINNA (Final Bosco 42 Mater Dei 28)...3 units

I made a couple of bets when the line jumped to +7. Need to ignore the fact that this game will feature over 30 Div 1 prospects. Need to ignore that Bosco lost the first time these two went at it for the Trinity League Title. Ignore that Mater Dei is undefeated and is setting all kind of records... Well at least their prodigy QB Soph JT Daniel's is. Ignore the billing that this game is the greatest National HSF game...

Remember, these two teams are simply high school football players. Yes, some outstanding athletes all over the field, but still it's only high school football!

I played the Over 69 for 2 units too... WINNA... . The last time these two locked horns, QB Re'al Mitchell had a horrible game. I expect tremendous improvement in tonights match. Dei is averaging 60 points per game in the playoffs. Bosco averages 50. Bosco is at its 4th straight CIF Southern Section Title game. They have been there before. I like the revenge factor as these two really dislike each other. The rivalry is decades long. Their parents played against each other. They are playing in Angel field.

Don't forget Bosco played a tremendous pre season schedule that included a loss to the #1 National team Bishop Gorman, Las Vegas. The maturity of Mitchell should be a big factor in how he prepares and plays tonight. In the regular season game, Mitchell was 8 for 14 for 117 yards, no Tds and 2 Ints. In last week's barn burner against Centennial he was 18 for 23 for 287 yards w/3 tds while rushing 14 times for 116 yards that included the game winning 73 yard TD. I expect a huge game from Mitchell. Reports tell me that he doesn't want to be shown up by a Soph.

The Winner goes to the California Div 1 North vs South Championship.

Go Bosco!

 

[Riff-Raff]

Hey boys and girls, I think we might have 1 more week of some sort of State Championship for a few more states..... I had a great week in HSF... 13-3-1.....going to miss it... Maybe more than the College game. It does give me a better understanding of who some of the kids are moving up to Div 1, instead of just reading the highlights through MaxPreps, Hudl and Rivals. Anyway, just wanted to gloat a little that it all wasn't in vein! Carry on..