Round 1

[kcwolf]

First off, it should be mentioned that over the last 15 years, the average margin of victory is 13.2 pts in the first round and goes up from there. This is around 2 points higher than the regular season, something one would think should be the opposite.

It should also be noted, home teams have covered 58% over the last 15 years. This includes home dogs going 5-0 SU, and of course comes into play this year: PIT@CIN.

In looking at all 4 games, early line movement indicates sharp money on WAS & NE. Simon seems to support my original indications.

The obvious at least needs to be mentioned. QB's previous experience and success can not be over-looked.

WAS@TB Taking a pass for now, need hear more on injuries. My numbers are fairly strong toward the Skins. Sims scares me.

JAX@NE I'd hate to go against NE, from what was said above. My numbers are very strong for JAX. Going to wait til Saturday for various reasons.

PIT@CIN Numbers support PIT. Pass for now, would not play PIT.

CAR&NYG NYG seem to be the square play, no offense to anyone. Number's support CAR, and refuse to lay money on Manning.

Played CAR +2.5 -106 x3

Disappointed in dipping below 60%. One bad week 3 weeks ago, 2-0 week 16, & passed last week.

YTD: 42-32 +28.05 units

gl!

 

[Dizzayton]

That stat about homedogs has me second guessing my Pitt play. That is a powerful stat.

 

[Juu3]

Pitt boyz, Pitt--

 

[vinnie]

I for one hope that home dog trend dies need Pitt to cover a friend of mine got us some pretty seats for Pitt @ Denver

good luck Mr. Wolf :clap:

well Jags shit the bed no Denver game for me either way :sadwave:

 

[AR182]

kc....

you stated that your numbers support jax.....but my question is how do you handicap n.e. fairly with all of their injuries during the season....prior to losing to miami (ne. rested many players) the pats gave up 164,183,138, & 171 total yards to their last 4 opponents......with a rusty qb, i don't see jax. doing much more than that.....

if i'm wrong....let me know ?

 

[Dizzayton]

This is why you may be wrong ARI- check out NE schedule this year and you will see that this perceived hot streak they are on is all smoke and mirrors. They have been average all year and a soft schedule the last month or so has made people falsely believe they are back to form, which they are not.

After getting dominated in KC on Nov. 27, Pats returned to beat the JETS led by Bollinger 16-3 at home. They followed that with a dominating 35-7 performance over Bills. Followed by a 28-0 whipping of TB and that is the moment at which everyone said they were back and a force to be reckoned with, that is the public perception at that time. Then they beat who? The JETS again followed by the Dolphins game.

Is that perceived hot streak really impressive. ABSOLUTELY NOT.
The Jets and Bills are miserable. And let me tell you that Losman is the worst in the NFL possibly followed by Bollinger. Neither will be full-time starters in this league. The TB game was somewhat impressive and Sims is a prospect. But it is still his first year and he struggled against the Belicheck scheme. For whatever reason Bucs did not show up for that game and Belicheck confused the hell out of Sims and Co. Regardless, a rusty Leftwich is better than all those QBs and Jimmy SMith and MAtt Jones and WIlford (who I really like) will make plays. The running is better now because they have fresh backs to compliment Taylor.

With all that being said the key is Jax defense ability to stop Brady. I think Belicheck will have a rather conservative gameplan designed to grind it out with Dillon, throw short passes, etc.

So the question you must asked yourself is NE really geared up to make another run? Can they cover 8 points against a 12-4 team that will be fired up. Think about it? A 12-4 team with 2 losses to the 2006 SB champ Colts and they are getting 8 to a NE team that has been average all year and played in the second worst (NFC west is worst) division in football.

JAX will fight them tooth and nail and may pull the upset that will shock many but not myself.



Sep 8 Oakland Won 30-20
Sep 18 @Carolina Lost 17-27
Sep 25 @Pittsburgh Won 23-20
Oct 2 San Diego Lost 17-41
Oct 9 @Atlanta Won 31-28
Oct 16 @Denver Lost 20-28
Week 7 BYE
Oct 30 Buffalo Won 21-16
Nov 7 Indianapolis Lost 21-40
Nov 13 @Miami Won 23-16
Nov 20 New Orleans Won 24-17
Nov 27 @Kansas City Lost 16-26
Dec 4 N.Y. Jets Won 16-3
Dec 11 @Buffalo Won 35-7
Dec 17 Tampa Bay Won 28-0
Dec 26 @N.Y. Jets Won 31-21
Jan 1 Miami Lost 26-28
Jan 7 Jacksonville 8:00pm

 

[Juu3]

I'm gonna have to agree with the write up Dizzy. The Patriots "little" hot streak. These guys are good, they just aren't what they have been and even with a boost like Bruschi, I think you may be right when you say the Jags pull the upset. However, I can't pull the trigger yet, but I may by Saturday

 

[Dizzayton]

Don't be surprised if the line drops to 7. Take it at 8 while you can get it.

 

[Little Italy]

where are you seeing it at 8? Bodog and betroyal both have it at 7.5

 

[vinnie]

Pinnacle
Sat 1/7 203 Jacksonville Jaguars +8.5 :scared

 

[kcwolf]

kc....

you stated that your numbers support jax.....but my question is how do you handicap n.e. fairly with all of their injuries during the season....prior to losing to miami (ne. rested many players) the pats gave up 164,183,138, & 171 total yards to their last 4 opponents......with a rusty qb, i don't see jax. doing much more than that.....

if i'm wrong....let me know ?

Al, 25% of coming up with my numbers include the last 4 games. I have JAX winning outright in almost every scenario. That scared me into putting some more thought into it. This games home/away numbers played another big part with JAX's road numbers.

I agree with what you are saying, if you take a road team, you better have the numbers to think they win outright.

Much to think about.

 

[RAYMOND]

loking at jax myself i have funny feeling

 

[shamrock]

Wayne, your smarter than that my friend. Brady & hurry up offense going to run that big defensive line ragged. Brady 9-0 & Patriots simply don't lose in Foxboro. Dizzy above conveniently avoids Tampa 28-0 beating in Foxboro. You can only play what you're schedule dictates. And Patriots first 8 games was toughest schedule possibly in NFL history. At Carolina Pittsburgh Atlanta Denver & Kansas City Home against San Diego and Indy. In post season you have to run the football, and as AR182 pointed out, Patriots went from second to last, to like #4 against the rush. This has everything to do about Seymore & Brueschi, not the Jets & Buffalo.

 

[Senor Capper]

WAS@TB
Sims scares me.


PIT@CIN
would not play PIT.

CAR&NYG
refuse to lay money on Manning.

Played CAR +2.5 -106 x3

Agreed.

Best of luck KC


SC

 

[AR182]

k.c.....

looking forward to your plays i'm interested in who you're playing this weekend.....

good luck this weekend...

 

[thom24ad]

With all that being said the key is Jax defense ability to stop Brady. I think Belicheck will have a rather conservative gameplan designed to grind it out with Dillon, throw short passes, etc.

I totally disagree, NE is going to spread out that defense with four WRs and running game is going to feed off Brady throwing the ball... Belichick is going to put the game in Brady's hands

 

[kcwolf]

Wayne, your smarter than that my friend. Brady & hurry up offense going to run that big defensive line ragged. Brady 9-0 & Patriots simply don't lose in Foxboro. Dizzy above conveniently avoids Tampa 28-0 beating in Foxboro. You can only play what you're schedule dictates. And Patriots first 8 games was toughest schedule possibly in NFL history. At Carolina Pittsburgh Atlanta Denver & Kansas City Home against San Diego and Indy. In post season you have to run the football, and as AR182 pointed out, Patriots went from second to last, to like #4 against the rush. This has everything to do about Seymore & Brueschi, not the Jets & Buffalo.

Your right Dan, must have lost my mind. Lefty is the big unknown.

Just one for Saturday:

WAS +2.5 -110 x5
WAS +115 x 2.5

Not interested in a total as of now. gl!

 

[Cabo]

Played Washington as well, hopefully it will be a great Saturday for us both, gl ..Cabo...

 

[theGibber1]

with you on the Skins KC

good luck :mj07:

 

[Ratslla]

Good Day & Good Luck Sir!

Ratslla