Round One Picks, Still at 75%

thom24ad

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Went 2-1 last week cause of fawking NE...thought Brady would play more than one stupid quarter...asshole...anyways, 21-6-1 in my last 28 plays I'm still getting lucky hitting 75%

203 Jacksonville @
204 New England -7.5

New England -7.5 Strongest Play

-Jacksonville's defense...Its a good defense but there is no offense to this team...Fatwich has been out for 5 weeks and this is his first game back...It's going to take him a while just to adjust to the game speed...the last time these two teams played was in New England in 03' and they won by two TDs...New England is going take the run the away and force Fatwich to throw the ball while being blitzed...he is coming off a broken bone in his ankle he is not going to be moving around a lot in that pocket...Another thing is Jacksonville is banged up they have 8 guys who are all questionable and the injury list is long for the Pats too

I think Belichick wanted to play Jacks for obvious reasons hence benching his starters in last week's game...The Jaguars' impressive record does have a bit to do with one of the NFL's easiest schedules...They went just 3-3 against teams with winning records

I also found a little history between these teams when it comes to the postseason....In Jan 1997, the Patriots won 20-6 victory over the Jags in the championship game...Bruschi, Willie McGinest and Adam Vinatieri were part of that Patriots team while Jimmy Smith is the lone remaining member of the Jaguars....Bruschi collected an interception in that game and Vinatieri kicked two field goals...Smith had three receptions for 45 yards...The Jaguars gave the Patriots their last playoff loss, registering a 25-10 victory in a wild-card game in January 1999...But the Pats have also won it's last nine playoff games and has won three SBs since that game

NE is just not going to lose this game and I see a rout where NE looks like the past champs...And then NE heads to Indy with all the hype after a dominating win...I just think its all set up to playout like that but I am just giving my opinion on why I am taking NE

207 Pittsburgh @ -3
208 Cinninnati

Cinninnati +3

- As a Clowns or I mean Browns fans I jokingly hate both these teams. My Pops is a stupid Bungles fan and it is awful listening to"Who Dey" over and over and over...I have here a little stupid story about X-mas, but for his dedication to his team and sticking by his team through all those years, I got him the X-mas gift he wanted the most an "Ordell Thurman jersey" so he could where for their first playoff game..."Dork"...You should have seen his face when he open the package...I told him I was unable to find the jersey due to the fact of the Bungles making the playoffs the stores sold out and that I got him a sweatshirt...His response was "all those damn Brown fans are jumping on the bangwagon"...But we all know that?s not the truth. I got the jersey and inside of the gift I wrote saying "Come on there isn't that many Bungles fans in Columbus"....It was a pretty good laugh

Back to what's important football. I realize Cincy has walked in to the playoffs ass-backwards but hey, they made it and they have home field-advantage because their is no way this team wins a road playoff game...But I think they can win at home against this team...Cincy did win the last meeting in Pitt but Ben wasn't healthy throwing three picks...But neither of these teams have that impressive wins or losses in my opinion and they are a little streaky...I understand that Cincy the #3 seed at home is not the favorite because they have loss their last two while Pitt has won their last four and is an experienced playoff team

But looking at Pitts last four wins they aren't that great...First, Chicago and I personally think Grossman makes significant difference to that offense...I don't think Pitt would beat Chicago now...Next, was Minny but their was a few us calling Pitt on that one, Minny was over-rated and not a playoff caliber team...and then two wins against teams with losing records...then they loss three straight with one of those losses to Cincy and an embarrassing loss at Indy...I just think Pitt isn't that great of a team and they are probably the fifth best AFC team

Cincy is obviously a team on the rise in the NFL...the Bungles offense is good and they have talent...Ever since they locked the division I thought this team was capable of getting a home field playoff win...they have two different four-consecutive wins streak this season and has shown flashes of brilliance...but their defense has really struggled and they are really going to need the help of the crowd to frustrate Ben and the Steelers D...and we have seen this happen before...Pitts D is going to be good but I am banking on the Bungles O will be better...I have been forced to follow Cincy this year and think the last win in Pitt gave Cincy a ton of confidence in knowing they can win against Pittsburgh

Cincy gets its first playoff win at home in a long time...The winning team will win by 1-4 points and if Cincy was the favorite I wouldn't have touched this game...It should be a good one.

201 Wash @
202 Tampa Bay 37

Under 37

- Tailing Glenn Quagmire on this one...I agree with everything he said about the under...I'm not writing anything on the game because I've already wrote too much see his post about the game I like the play.
http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?t=221463

I was able to save my ass and make some cash on that terrible bowl record with FSU and Texas...Things have been going good for me this week and I'm hoping to keep it going through the weekend.

Good Luck to all who play!
:mj14:
 
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Hindsite

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I am Steeler homer, so I'm not going to play this game. If I were to bet Cinci, 2 things would seriously bother me.

1. The last game they played, Pitt was -4 in the turnover battle and lost by only 7 points. They also layed the ball on the field three other times on botched plays.

2. The line is fishy. This game should be a pick. I may be wrong, but the line to me is begging for Cinci money
 

thom24ad

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Hindsite said:
I am Steeler homer, so I'm not going to play this game. If I were to bet Cinci, 2 things would seriously bother me.
No blame there, its bad luck for me to bet my teams as well.


1. The last game they played, Pitt was -4 in the turnover battle and lost by only 7 points. They also layed the ball on the field three other times on botched plays.
Good point tough to argue that angle

2. The line is fishy. This game should be a pick. I may be wrong, but the line to me is begging for Cinci money
that seems to be common concensus in the forum but I just think Cincy can win at home. Like I said I wouldn't play it if Cincy was favorite and on sportsbook the money has pretty much been 50-50 so its hard to say if they'll get that Cincy money seems like to me most of the people are on Pitt
 

Dizzayton

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Don't put too much on those games Thom. I like Pitt and Jax. When it comes to NFL playoffs, I know only 2 things. Run and stop the run.

Pittsburgh will do that against Cincy.

Jax do both well enough to cover if not win.
 

thom24ad

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Dizzayton said:
Don't put too much on those games Thom. I like Pitt and Jax. When it comes to NFL playoffs, I know only 2 things. Run and stop the run.

Pittsburgh will do that against Cincy.

Jax do both well enough to cover if not win.
I could be wrong, but I heard a Jaxs backer use the "L" word so I am happy with my pick
:mj07:
making a nice size play on NE
 

tcon142

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Good write up Thom, but you're wrong on one account, the "important" part was in the prior paragraph! Good stuff, probably was your dad's favorite gift.
I like Cinncy + and the TB under. So many people on the Pats worries me a bit.

GL
 

thom24ad

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tcon142 said:
Good write up Thom, but you're wrong on one account, the "important" part was in the prior paragraph! Good stuff, probably was your dad's favorite gift.
I like Cinncy + and the TB under. So many people on the Pats worries me a bit.

GL
thanks Tcon...yeah he has been wearing the jersey all week for this upcoming game

Not that many on the Pats sportsbook has the money side on 56% on NE and 44% on Jaxs....I can't see one side getting 60% but I could be wrong

Good Luck to you!
 

Glenn Quagmire

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Thom,

I appreciate you referencing me in your Washington pick. Classy move. But just remember me, if it ends up being a loser it must have been ANOTHER Glenn Quagmire who had the under :mj07:
 

thom24ad

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Naa, I wouldn't do you like that buddy...I'm the one who still pulls the trigger...I did look at the game pretty good after reading your post and thought you were right...but this is the playoffs and anything can happen...that NE game is starting to make me nervous...you have any thoughts?
 

Mjolnir

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gl, i feel strong about pats also. feel the same about cincy, i almost wanna take them outright. might do a small moneyline wager also.
 

thom24ad

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Yeah, I'm going to lay a small ML play as well...probably just a unit because I think they're going to win...let me know what odds you find...GL!

+135 most places, found +138 @ Pinnacle...Pinnacle seems to always have the best MLs...waiting till the day of the game to see if it moves
 
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Dayad

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I just think Pitt runs over Cin, litterally. Cincy "D" bends AND breaks. I'm on the Steeler bandwagon this week. GL to all
 

Glenn Quagmire

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thom24ad said:
Naa, I wouldn't do you like that buddy...I'm the one who still pulls the trigger...I did look at the game pretty good after reading your post and thought you were right...but this is the playoffs and anything can happen...that NE game is starting to make me nervous...you have any thoughts?

I like NE a lot this weekend. I didn't play them straight up... well, not yet that is... but I do have them in a teaser with Wash +9.5. I just posted it in my original thread. I think it's the "One early playoff pick" thread... or something like that. I think Brady's "disrespect" comment pretty much sealed Jax's fate. Nothing like NE at home in the playoffs with a chip on their shoulders!
 

thom24ad

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Glenn Quagmire said:
I think Brady's "disrespect" comment pretty much sealed Jax's fate. Nothing like NE at home in the playoffs with a chip on their shoulders!
Clearly an example of a leader railing his troops...can you image the hype of INDY/NE if NE just kills Jaxs...I can already hear the media going nuts
 
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Glenn Quagmire

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Yeah, that would be a good one. Hopefully NE catches a lot of points with that one. I doubt it though.
 
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