Royals and Tigers Futures (info for me and Poon)

[WhatsHisNuts]

Vegas Insider has this:

To Win AL Pennant:
Tigers 5/1
Royals 15/1

Baseball Prospectus Win Projection for 2012:
Tigers: 85
Royals: 67


The Tiger win projection seems low. They are only projected to have 5 more wins than the Indians. Since BP isn't a gambling house, this is kind of unsettling. At worst, I would think 90 wins is in the cards for 2012, but that is just me throwing out a number.

 

[Mr. Poon]

I dug into this some over the weekend. The over/under on wins for the Royals at books seemed high. I think they didn't take into consideration recent injuries.

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

O/U at BETDSI

Tigers 92
Royals 78.5

That under on the Royals looks TASTY!

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

O/U at BETDSI

Tigers 92
Royals 78.5

That under on the Royals looks TASTY!

I pulled the trigger:

ROYALS UNDER 78.5 WINS. 2 units! :00hour :00hour :00hour

 

[Mr. Poon]

I pulled the trigger:

ROYALS UNDER 78.5 WINS. 2 units! :00hour :00hour :00hour

just saw this, I saw 80 at two places and even 80.5 at one. :scared

 

[Mr. Poon]

Ok, I?ve delayed long enough on this (could you tell I was having buyer?s remorse?). Using various online books for over/under totals, looks like the Tigers are set about 13.5 above the Royals. The Baseball Prospectus figures you gave have it at 18. As you state BP isn?t a gambling house and the Over/Unders can be skewed for where they think $ is going to come in (i.e. people betting the Tigers Over because of simply adding Fielder, or betting the Royals Over because there is implied improvement when their pitching is still horrible). What if we put it between the two at 15.5? With the half game it will give a clear winner.

Thinking we do one bet for that, say a hat or sweatshirt, and then another on season series. There are 18 regular season meetings. Not sure how to set a line on this, assuming the Tigers will be favorites to win each series. If they took 2 of 3, each time that would be a 12-6 split. What if we set the season series at Tigers -5? They go 12/6 you win, they go 11/7 I win.

Let me know if you think I?m off my rocker on these. I?m game for tweaking a bit if needed.

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

Ok, I?ve delayed long enough on this (could you tell I was having buyer?s remorse?). Using various online books for over/under totals, looks like the Tigers are set about 13.5 above the Royals. The Baseball Prospectus figures you gave have it at 18. As you state BP isn?t a gambling house and the Over/Unders can be skewed for where they think $ is going to come in (i.e. people betting the Tigers Over because of simply adding Fielder, or betting the Royals Over because there is implied improvement when their pitching is still horrible). What if we put it between the two at 15.5? With the half game it will give a clear winner.

Thinking we do one bet for that, say a hat or sweatshirt, and then another on season series. There are 18 regular season meetings. Not sure how to set a line on this, assuming the Tigers will be favorites to win each series. If they took 2 of 3, each time that would be a 12-6 split. What if we set the season series at Tigers -5? They go 12/6 you win, they go 11/7 I win.

Let me know if you think I?m off my rocker on these. I?m game for tweaking a bit if needed.

Season bet: Tigers win total 17.5 OVER Royals win total. I think we should use the BP number.

I think that is a much more even bet. If the Royals have a good year, you probably win....if they have a typical year, you lose.

Hat/Sweatshirt bet works for me.

 

[Mr. Poon]

Fine with me, I get Royals +17.5.

Do we want to worry about games played in case one of them only plays 161 or something with a rainout not made up (more likely for the Royals). That's the only thing that I could see trip this bet up.

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

Fine with me, I get Royals +17.5.

Do we want to worry about games played in case one of them only plays 161 or something with a rainout not made up (more likely for the Royals). That's the only thing that I could see trip this bet up.

It is what it is. If one team only plays 161, so be it.

 

[Mr. Poon]

sounds good.

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

My Tigers are not meeting expectations.

 

[Mr. Poon]

betus still has them as heavy favorites (-230) to win the division.

 

[Mr. Poon]

Tigers are 7 games up at the all-star break, they have played 2 more games. Was feeling a bit better before this most recent 3-game sweep.

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

Tigers are 7 games up at the all-star break, they have played 2 more games. Was feeling a bit better before this most recent 3-game sweep.

opcorn2

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

Tigers now up 12, having played 2 more games than the Royals. This is more of what I was expecting out of the Tigers. The offense is starting to click and the pitching is getting better.

 

[Mr. Poon]

The Royals were a disappointment prior to the all-star break and are now in a stark nose-dive.

KC's pitching staff is on pace to have their starters pitch the fewest innings in the modern era.

 

[Mr. Poon]

Essentially 3/4 of the way through the season. Detroit up 10 in the win colum having played 1 more game than KC. They will play each other 10 times the remainder of the year.

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

It's going to be tight. Detroit has a pretty easy road to end the season and they will be in the hunt for the division, so they will be out to win each game.

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

WTF? :facepalm:

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

WTF? :facepalm:

:violin: