run line-- laying the 1.5

[MadJack]

i went back 30 games for all the teams when they were giving the 1.5 and this is their records AT -1.5

let's hear some comments.

TOR 9-4 (WON BY 1 O TIMES)
PHI 8-9 (WON BY 1 4 TIMES)
MON 4-4 (WON BY 1 1 TIME)
ATL 8-16 (WON BY 1 4 TIMES)
PIT 0-0
CUB 10-10 (WON BY 1 4 TIMES)
MIL 3-8 (WON BY 1 1 TIME)
DET 2-9 (WON BY 1 3 TIMES)
CWS 3-5 (WON BY 1 2 TIMES)
LAD 4-10 (WON BY 1 4 TIMES)
HOU 7-18 (WON BY 1 6 TIMES)
SF 5-9 (WON BY 1 3 TIMES)
COL 10-10 (0 TIMES)
MIN 8-13 (5 TIMES)
TEX 5-12 (0 TIMES)
MET 4-12 (3 TIMES)
FLA 5-9 (4 TIMES)
CLE 17-10 (WON BY 1 3 TIMES)
NYY 10-12 (WON BY 1 4 TIMES)
BOS 8-11 (WON BY 1 3 TIMES)
BAL 4-3 (1 TIME)
OAK 6-10 (4 TIMES)
KC 4-10 (0 TIMES)
ANA 8-8 (3 TIMES)
SD 1-7 (2 TIMES)
ARI 9-9 (5 TIMES)
TB 0-5 (1 TIME)
SEA 14-9 (4 TIMES)
CIN 0-7 (1 TIME)
STL 16-7 (1 TIME)
TOTAL 190-258 (76 times the 1 run win killed the bet.)

 

[MadJack]

this was a pain in the ass. i'll do it again sometime next week but will include the times they lost the game out right, thus, saving you money by taking the RL.

let's figure this chit out.

 

[woodpony]

Thanks for the info on this, I know there must be a time to play the Run Line - but finding out when is key, maybe you can find a system or something possitive.

 

[HONUS]

Am I interpreting this correctly:

ex: the Jays are 9-4 as fav's -1.5?

 

[MadJack]

Am I interpreting this correctly:
ex: the Jays are 9-4 as fav's -1.5?

yes. 13 times TOR was giving the 1.5 and they won 9 and lost 4. they won one of those games by 1 run which gave the bettor that played -1.5 a loss.

 

[HONUS]

Where do I see that they won by one (that's a tongue twister) once?

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Jack:

I don't have any statistical opinion on whether it's better to bet the gm or to bet the runline.

But my problem w/ the runline is that laying -1.5 goes contrary to a team's motivation. What I like about baseball betting and playing the ML is that if your team wins, you win. No concern about covering the #.

Too often, I've seen a team w/ a 2-run lead in the 9th. The opponent gets one runner on and then the old "defensive indifference" comes into play w/ a runner taking 2nd and 3rd w/o so much as a throw. That sort of thing would drive me batty, losing gms in that fashion.

What is the normal exchange on gm to runline? Would -1.5, -110 relate to about -180?

Thx, Jack. I'll see if I can help.

 

[MadJack]

honus- my mistake.

TOR 9-4 (WON BY 1 O TIMES)

chucky- i hate betting the RL and hardly ever do it. i just did this because there has been some discussion about the pros and cons. it's guaranteed they win by 1 run when i bet the RL. seems to happen every time i play it.

 

[prospector]

jack,

i went thru the same process last week after getting caught up in the yyz thread.

came up with pretty much the same concensus.

one bit of info i don't have is if/when the -1.5 line was available, meaning they were the favored team.

some hi-lites are ...

team---current record-----%---by 1.5--%--

stl -- 30-24 ---------- 0.556 -- 27 -- 0.491
sea -- 42-12 ---------- 0.778 -- 33 -- 0.611
tor -- 26-29 ---------- 0.473 -- 19 -- 0.345
col -- 27-28 ---------- 0.491 -- 24 -- 0.436
cle -- 34-18 ---------- 0.654 -- 25 -- 0.481

from this chart you can see how many exactly 1 run games there were (just subtract). i was curious to find out if some teams playing at or below .500 actually win (when they do win) by more than 1.5 runs more often than by 1 run.

it appears if you are going to bet on col., stl. or sea. you might as well take the 1.5 line.

hope this means something

 

[suprgnarley]

Been playing the run line last couple months and generally have been getting my ass kicked. Just as Jack said, I can't count how many times I've layed the 1.5 only to win by 1. ie: Yesterday, Houston and Anaheim. Although did have Seattle -1.5 parred to Balt ml but overall negetive experience here. Still get sucked in though.

 

[prospector]

what can really hurt is the single run - bottom of the ninth when more than one run was available and would easily scaore. (ie: Ariz. last night.)

It's not so often you get the walk-off homer for the extra runs (ie: Col. last night)

 

[BigDog]

I would never suggest to play the run line on ALL favorites...especially light favorites at -110 or -118. I would suspect them to be a large percentage of 1 run losses compared to the heavy(-160, -190, -225, etc.) favorites. Of course, there is no "line" to divide Heavy from light...these are subjective concepts, but I would use -150 as the benchmark. I do not have my sheets here at work, but I would be curious as to how the outcome would differ if you only considered -150 or heavier favorites.



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If you're not the lead dog, your view never changes.

 

[Nick Douglas]

My only suggestion on the runline would be to only play runlines on *road* teams, either way. Since the home team loses the ninth inning and can't win by more than 1 in extra innings unless they win with a home run, it seems logical that there would be value in either giving or taking 1.5 runs with a road team, but not with a home team.

BTW, I don't have any statistical data at all to back this up, but I just was thinking about one run games and how to logically bet runlines.

 

[Man O' Vegas]

Betting road teams on the run line became a very popular trend a couple of years ago. Since then, the books have virtually taken all the value out of the road team run line. I've seen the spread as low as 30 cents on a road team, that's a rip-off! The value still lies in giving up an at-bat with the home team, but you really have got to have your bullpen matchup nailed down for that game. I find that about 75-80% of my losses, run line or not, are tied to the bullpen just because they have become so much more of the percentage of innings pitched in a game today.

MOV