Well their non-conf schedule was pathetic. Do you realize they only have 1 Top 30 RPI win all year? And while they have road wins, look who they beat - WKy, Santa Clara, Tulane, ARk-Little Rock, Ole Miss, Auburn, Arkansas, LSU?
They do have some better ones - notably Florida (during their horrible stretch), and Bama with a great comeback. But it isnt like they went into Lexington.
Roberts is a great player, but to me this is the same old Miss State story- they look good but turn to paper when the chips are down. I think they will have real trouble against Louisville, or even Xavier if somehow they win.