First off, the track at Hawthorne was pretty sloppy today and took quite a bit more water during the latter part of today's card so I'll be surprised if the track isn't sloppy tomorrow.
ILLINOIS DERBY-
Barring scratches, there's quite a bit of early speed in here. Wesley Ward sent Runnin On Nitro here to avoid the speed in the GP race and to get some graded earnings to qualify for the Derby. He does appear to be the fastest from the gate but Blackington, Lx Commander and Alysweep all have good speed. I thought Alysweep wired a fairly speed-free field in the Gotham, so I'm definitely downgrading his chances. He's the morning line favorite, and could easily be off the board. The logical closer here is Lone Star Sky who was 4th beaten less than 4 by 2 very good colts in Peace Rules and Kafwain. He could end up being the favorite despite what the morning line says. Lx Commander is similar to War Emblem in that he already had a prep over the track and won it by 10 lengths w/a similar speed figure to what War Emblem had last year. On the down side, his only defeat in his last 4 races was on a muddy track, which he's likely to get tomorrow. Cherokee's Boy invades from Maryland and could definitely hit the board but could be a bit too slow to get the win money. Ten Most Wanted was 3rd in the Golden Gate Derby and Day comes in from Ky to ride.
1. Lone Star Sky 2. Runnin On Nitro 3. Ten Most Wanted 4. Lx Commander
SANTA ANITA DERBY
Everyone's talking about Atswhatimtalkingabout and I think he might be a little overbet. He put in a huge closing run in the San Felipe to lose by a nose 3 weeks ago and the trainer did state that this race, not the San Felipe, was his main objective. This horse has run 5 times in just 13 weeks and could be a bounce candidate. I'm guessing he'll be lower than 9-5. Kafwain has accomplished more than anyone in here and probably was beaten by the bias at the Fair Grounds. On the negative side, Kafwain is a deep closer, and always seems to have to race very wide. The 2 favorites here figure to be far back in a race without too much speed. Buddy Gil beat Ats by a nose 3 weeks ago and I wouldn't be shocked if he did it again. He figures to be closer to the pace than the 2 chalks, and with the 4 hole, he figures to save more ground than the outer drawn horses. Domestic Dispute is 15-1 in the morning line but I expect around 6-1. This is Baffert, and the horse hasn't done too much wrong. Jerry Brown of Thorograph said this horse has the best pattern going into the race but he did draw outside so he figures to lose some ground. He figures to be higher priced than Baffert's other main contender (Kafwain), and Baffert has done well with the higher priced of 2 uncoupled entries (i.e. Real Quiet at 10-1 winning the Derby over 8-5 stablemate Indian Charlie). Ocean Terrace doesn't look good enough to win, but he figures to get a good trip saving ground from the rail and could set a comfortable pace so he could definitely hit the board.
1. Buddy Gil 2. Kafwain 3. Atswhatimtalkingabout 4. Ocean Terrace
ILLINOIS DERBY-
Barring scratches, there's quite a bit of early speed in here. Wesley Ward sent Runnin On Nitro here to avoid the speed in the GP race and to get some graded earnings to qualify for the Derby. He does appear to be the fastest from the gate but Blackington, Lx Commander and Alysweep all have good speed. I thought Alysweep wired a fairly speed-free field in the Gotham, so I'm definitely downgrading his chances. He's the morning line favorite, and could easily be off the board. The logical closer here is Lone Star Sky who was 4th beaten less than 4 by 2 very good colts in Peace Rules and Kafwain. He could end up being the favorite despite what the morning line says. Lx Commander is similar to War Emblem in that he already had a prep over the track and won it by 10 lengths w/a similar speed figure to what War Emblem had last year. On the down side, his only defeat in his last 4 races was on a muddy track, which he's likely to get tomorrow. Cherokee's Boy invades from Maryland and could definitely hit the board but could be a bit too slow to get the win money. Ten Most Wanted was 3rd in the Golden Gate Derby and Day comes in from Ky to ride.
1. Lone Star Sky 2. Runnin On Nitro 3. Ten Most Wanted 4. Lx Commander
SANTA ANITA DERBY
Everyone's talking about Atswhatimtalkingabout and I think he might be a little overbet. He put in a huge closing run in the San Felipe to lose by a nose 3 weeks ago and the trainer did state that this race, not the San Felipe, was his main objective. This horse has run 5 times in just 13 weeks and could be a bounce candidate. I'm guessing he'll be lower than 9-5. Kafwain has accomplished more than anyone in here and probably was beaten by the bias at the Fair Grounds. On the negative side, Kafwain is a deep closer, and always seems to have to race very wide. The 2 favorites here figure to be far back in a race without too much speed. Buddy Gil beat Ats by a nose 3 weeks ago and I wouldn't be shocked if he did it again. He figures to be closer to the pace than the 2 chalks, and with the 4 hole, he figures to save more ground than the outer drawn horses. Domestic Dispute is 15-1 in the morning line but I expect around 6-1. This is Baffert, and the horse hasn't done too much wrong. Jerry Brown of Thorograph said this horse has the best pattern going into the race but he did draw outside so he figures to lose some ground. He figures to be higher priced than Baffert's other main contender (Kafwain), and Baffert has done well with the higher priced of 2 uncoupled entries (i.e. Real Quiet at 10-1 winning the Derby over 8-5 stablemate Indian Charlie). Ocean Terrace doesn't look good enough to win, but he figures to get a good trip saving ground from the rail and could set a comfortable pace so he could definitely hit the board.
1. Buddy Gil 2. Kafwain 3. Atswhatimtalkingabout 4. Ocean Terrace
