Sat 10/08

[layinwood]

For the year 6-3 +5.4 units


I'll be on the Tech vs Aggs over as soon as I get a line on it. I don't believe that Techs D, no matter how hpyed up, can slow down the Aggie offense. After watching Okie State and the Aggs I don't believe the Aggie secondary can stay with the Tech offense. Add to that it looks like Aggs D is worn down and not deep enough to keep up with these fast offenses and you have a great chance for the over.

For the last 10 years I've never gone into the A&M weekend thinking Tech would lose but this year I think they lose. I just don't think they're good enough yet to hang with the Aggies. They play way too many frosh right now. Maybe I'm wrong and they'll be focused from the start for the first time this year but I can't see it.

 

[layinwood]

Texas Tech +8 2units


I wasn't going to play Tech but I like the line at 8 too much. I know I know, that's a pretty big move from 6.5 to 8 and crossing over the touchdown mark but this game means more than any other game this year to these guys so I'm 100% certain I'm going to be getting everything the Tech kids have to give on both game day and this week during preparations. After two really big games for the Aggies I'm not sure you can say that. The one BIG loss for Tech that they were hoping to have back this weekend is their WR Moore. Everyone thought he would be back for this weeks game but yesterday Brown said it was unlikely.

But, a not so fast my friend... What might be better news is that Scott Smith is back on the defensive side. IMO he's one of their top 3 best defensive players and last year for the games he played he really caused the other teams problems. He's going to play at least half the plays so that will make Tech a little deeper on the d line.

The big question is whether Doege will have time to pass. We know the Aggies secondary is suspect but their front is very good. IMO the reason they've been losing is because even though they're good they're not deep and they tire in the 2nd half. Tech runs a very fast paced offense under Brown and I look for them to hurry it up even more in this game. Quick passes and passes to the backs will help against the rush. I also think this will be the first game that they start looking a lot to Frosh TE Amarro. He was the #1 TE recruit in the nation and so far has looked good but they haven't thrown to him a lot. I think that changes this week.

The big question for Tech is whether or not they can just slow down the Aggie offense. Too be honest I'm worried they can't. The Tech defense has played confused at times under new DC Glasgow. I think they load up on the run and take their chances with the passing game. I don't know if that will work but if you look at the overall plan for the game it will be what's best. The thing Tech doesn't want is for A&M to be able to pound the ball down the field with the running game using up clock and allowing the defense to rest. If they stop the running game but give up some big pass plays it won't hurt as much. I know that sounds counter to a lot of peoples opinion on how to play but like I said we have to look at both sides combined and what they're trying to accomplish.

Bottom line-A&M has played two games in a row that took their emotional and physical levels up to 100, it's too hard to keep that pace up so I expect it to fall off a little. I'm thinking they may come out a little flat and pick the pace up from there. Tech hasn't had a emotional and or physical game yet so they're ready and able to get those levels to the top.

 

[layinwood]

Ok/UT under 56.5 2units


Texas has very good defensive players and should be able to match up with Okie pretty well. I think Brown has to be conservative on offense to try and keep it close. He'll also do everything he can to keep the Okie offense off the field and that means running the clock all the way down and either running the ball or short passes to keep the clock running. If the Texas D doesn't have to be on the field all day they'll be able to hold Okie.

 

[layinwood]

Wake +10 1 unit

Auburn +10 2unit


I think both these games go into the 4th very tight with both dogs having a chance to win.

Don't have time for write ups but IMO there are good stats that give me reason for backing both teams.

 

[el JB]

you should love ttech @ +9.5 now....i do:toast:

 

[ageecee]

O/U is 71.5 Greek

 

[joefrog91]

O/U is 71.5 Greek

I was going to lean over, but that's a lot of points. I know Tx Tech would be good for about 35, but A&M has been melting down too much in the 2nd half latley.

 

[layinwood]

I was going to lean over, but that's a lot of points. I know Tx Tech would be good for about 35, but A&M has been melting down too much in the 2nd half latley.

I decided not to play the over because I played Tech. IMO I would stand a really good chance to lose both if one lost. I can't see this going over if Tech doesn't cover so I decided to just take Tech. I do like the over but worry with Aggs running game they could milk the clock enough to make it go under.

 

[atmswim]

I am sorry but I see no reason why A&M doesn't destroy Tech this week.

I think we all can agree that A&M has some issues in the secondary but let's remember that A&M played possibly the two best passing offenses in the country. The passing offense of Tech is not nearly as good as Okie State or Arkansas. You could tell in the Arkansas game that the defense got a little better. The problem was that our offense didn't score. A&M's offense has been unstoppable in the first half but the second half goes stale just like the defense. I feel like this is the game we get back on track to play an entire game on both the offense and defense.

Therefore, I see A&M being able to stop Tech enough to cover.

 

[joefrog91]

I may throw some down later after seeing what my early plays do. I wanted to put something on Okie St so badly, but I can't seem to get them. If I bet the side, the over hits. If I bet the over, the side hits. I thought about putting something on the under, but Kansas could surprise me and score enough to get over 73.

 

[layinwood]

I am sorry but I see no reason why A&M doesn't destroy Tech this week.

I think we all can agree that A&M has some issues in the secondary but let's remember that A&M played possibly the two best passing offenses in the country. The passing offense of Tech is not nearly as good as Okie State or Arkansas. You could tell in the Arkansas game that the defense got a little better. The problem was that our offense didn't score. A&M's offense has been unstoppable in the first half but the second half goes stale just like the defense. I feel like this is the game we get back on track to play an entire game on both the offense and defense.

Therefore, I see A&M being able to stop Tech enough to cover.

I'm not saying I think Tech will win but the cover is a good possibility. I'm not sure if it's conditioning or coaching but one or both of those suck very badly for the Aggies. If Tech starts slow like they have been then it could get dicey but I think they come out like gang busters and this game is a dog fight.