sat. nba......3-big plays....

[STEEL CITY SELECTIONS]

NBA......
SAT. RECAP....1-0+1135
REC. UPDATE....
TOP PLAYS...69-56+11365
OVERALL......156-136+7685

TONITE........
MIAMI....TOP PLAY....1100-1000
MIAMI+320....MONEY LINE...500-1600
notes....we all know of miamis improved play after a horrible start this yr........miami has now gone 13-5 su on road since 1/14...during this run.theyve beaten 6 play-off teams ....[lakers,port.,milw.,dallas,det.,phil.]....pretty impressive.
miami also hasnt lost 2-in row su or ats since 1/14...they are off a loss last nite.
miami has gone 7-0 ats in 2nd game of btb after losin 1st game ats.
sa....is 0-5 ats after 3-straight ats wins this yr...currently on 3-game ats win streak.
sa. ..is off a very tough 3-game stretch were theyve beaten boston, lakers and at dallas, all top notch play-off teams.....looking for a sa. let-down tonite.....theyve won 11-straight su and should be ripe to fall tonite.....miami has all the credentials to make this possible as they are a solid road team both su and ats.

SEA.....1.5-TOP PLAY....1650-1500
notes.....sea. has been great as a road fav....their 7-2 this yr.
theyve gone 15-7 su last 22 games as they are in the midst of making a strong run into play-offs.
one key for any play-off hopeful is to beat up on the bad teams....theyve done this very well.....
theyve gone 10-3 su and 9-4 ats vs. sub .500 teams in last 22-games.
denver appears to have packed it in....currently losing 7-straight su....with last 4 of 5 by 16+ pts.
not real happy bout laying this many on road, but denvers recent quitter type play warrants it.

PHOENIX....TOP PLAY....1100-1000
PHOE.+290....MONEY LINE...500-1450
notes....strictly a trend play for me.....got 4- solid trends pointing to phoe. tonite...plus like the fact that clips should get most of the public money based on phoe. poor play recently.
line at +8 right now....hoping to get another half point atleast by tip.

GLUCK ALL, BURGH.....

 

[RobertBIrish]

HAte to be on the other side of a play of yours but have to here on San Antonio one of the strongest trends I follow is to bet against a team that loses at home then has to travel and play on the road the very next night. Miami has not won in SA since 1996 and they are 1-2 ATS in SA since 96. I know that Miami just lost at home and went to Philly and won but that is another very strong trend playing the loser of the first game in back to backs on consecutive nights. In the BTB prior to that they lost on the road then went home and beat Denver not exactly a powerhouse, prior to that was a loss at home to Toronto then played Memphis on the road again not a powerhouse, prior to that was a win at detroit followed the next night by a win at Chicago again not a powerhouse, next was a win at Washington then a win at home against Washington again not a strong team like the Spurs, next was a loss to the TWolves then beat Chicago again the next night, the only team of any signifigance is Portland but that was when they were mired in their losing streak. I think when you talk about Miami's BTB record you really have to consider the competition and the only win they have over a good team was Portland in my opinion and they were not beating anyone then. True SA could have a letdown but I seriously doubt it as there are not many games left and they can't afford a letdown especially at home. It is the time of year when the big strong teams start to flex their muscle and the Spurs can't afford to let up now they are jockying for playoff position.
While I agree the Heat are playing well it is hard to lose at home then travel and play the next night against one of the best teams in the NBA. This is just my assesment of the game and I am in no way wishing you bad luck as I said I HATE being on the other side of a game with you so Good Luck my friend!

 

[STEEL CITY SELECTIONS]

damn, robert b....not happy were not on same page with this one.
u mentioned u dont like betting a team off a home loss next road on btb...ive tracked every situation imaginable for last 6yrs.... a good edge is seen if the home team loses but covers with next road on btb....this is a solid go-against spot. but a team off a home loss no-cover next road on btb....no-edge either way....and this is the spot mia. is in.

not much trend supporting this play for me....only one and that is sa. off a road win/cover next home with 1-day off....decent go-against spot.

my main reasons for play are the notes i wrote up about game.plus,
just think sa. in a tough spot tonite.

hey, if i dont win, i hope u do!!

gluck, buddy.

 

[RobertBIrish]

I don't bet it every time but rather in certain situations SA lost at hoem then went to MIami and played they lost straight up. There are other criteria to the play LOL can't give away all my secrets and Miami falls into it today. I hate to see someone I like lose would almost rather I lose ,ALMOST LOL. Good luck buddy if I lose it will make me feell better knowing you won!

 

[boilermaker]

No offense RobertBIrish but I have to agree with Steel City on this one. I see an uninspired Spurs team playing the Heat after the 3 big wins. Good Luck to both of you.

 

[RobertBIrish]

No offense at all my friend! We can't agree on all of them LOL.

 

[nighthorse]

How does Miami playing it's 4th game in five nights and traveling halfway across the country the night before affect the decision-making process for the two of you? Any? A little? A lot?

I don't want to know exactly how you work it, just in general, how much weight would you give something like that. Personally, I give it quite a bit of weight. Am I wrong in doing this?

 

[RobertBIrish]

It weighs in on my decision. But I don't give any one consideration over another I weigh all the same. But you make a very good point!

 

[STEEL CITY SELECTIONS]

NIGHTHORSE....

i posted something about this awile back...lotsa cappers like to factor these 3 games 4 nites....4-games 5 nites...etc. into their plays. i see this alot. ive tracked this supposed fatigue situations and there is NO ats advantage playing against a team in these spots. dont even like posting this, because so many play against teams in these phantom fatigue spots,it has to work in my favor resulting in a better line. so keep it under ure hat...lol...now, there maybe some unique spot like, for example a team on 3 games in 4 nites off 3-straight covers last at home,blah, blah blah.
im just talking about flat betting against teams in these fatigue spots...ive found no advantage.
i dont even look at it. the only thing i look at is starters minutes played for a team on btb. have uncovered some strong go-against trends with this.

hope this helps, gluck, burgh.

 

[nighthorse]

Wow, that's an eye-opener....I thought Detroit would be tired in the 2nd half last night....I don't think they were, they did lose ATS in the 2nd, but I don't think it was from fatigue. Ya know, it's gonna be hard for me to throw away that crutch. I like to use it the other way with the well rested playing well on the defensive side. I've got some thinkin to do.......thanks a lot for your response, the only ones who will know about this is you, me, and the server

 

[hildog]

Great discussion guys, my B-ball IQ was definitely in need some added brain jarring.

 

[nighthorse]

I didn't mean to slight ya Irish, I liked your answer better.....it fits more with what I'm currently doing. But I gotta take a hard look at this.......thanks for the response.

 

[STEEL CITY SELECTIONS]

nighthorse,hildog and guys...im not saying to totally disregard the fatigue factor. im sure there are spots that it can apply and be useful in your analysis of a play. what im saying is i would never base a play or get off a play based solely on the fatigue factor. nighthorse, u mentioned a way u were using it along with how much rest the other team had. thats a perfect example...if uve found something that produces consistent results for u, by all means stick with it....we all look at alot of different angles when we break down a game, im just saying dont throw all your eggs in the fatigue factor [easter]basket. my point was simply...if u bet against every team playing its 3rd in 4 days,4th in 5 days, 7th in 10 days,etc...you would lose alot of money.

gluck, guys.

 

[nighthorse]

I gotcha Burgh......I have a feeling that I do put too much emphasis on schedules and travel. We're humans, we generally don't like change. I'm in that boat too.....trying to take in more info and adjust. Every piece of advice given by experienced players like yourself is appreciated.


Been getting into the second half plays. I suspect the relationship may be significant for second half lines, but I'm gonna have to dig a little to see if that's so.

One more point about fatigue. You didn't mention totals. I like to play overs with two "tired" teams. Do your statics show the same 'no difference' with totals?