Sat parlays!

Terryray

Say Parlay
Forum Member
Dec 6, 2001
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Kansas City area for who knows how long....
02:15 PM [902] STL CARDINALS -1.5 +110 ( J NELSON -R / A WAINWRIGHT -R )
04:10 PM [903] MIA MARLINS -260 ( J FERNANDEZ -R/ ACTION )
01:05 PM [914] TOR BLUE JAYS -160 ( ACTION /M ESTRADA -R )
02:10 PM [915] TEX RANGERS +115 ( C GONZALEZ -R / T DUFFEY -R )
04:10 PM [918] TOTAL u7.5 -110 (CHI WHITE SOX vrs HOU ASTROS) ( C SALE -L / D FISTER -R )
04:10 PM [919] DET TIGERS -128 ( J VERLANDER -R / B SNELL -L )

1 unit bet pays 33 ....betdsi line .... evening parlay later

MLB parlays: 9-93, -20.86 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9

Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
rogpen.gif
:0074 Goooooood Luck ALLLL!!!! :spotting: :00hour:em71: :drinky: :mj06:


Waino and Verlander both good at bouncing back after poor starts, and they are in the situtations today to take advantage of that....

ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:

Chi Chi Gonzalez will make his second start of the season, aiming for his first win. Gonzalez was hit hard by the Yankees in his first start, surrendering five runs in five innings pitched, finishing with the no decision. The young right hander went 4-6 with a 3.90 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 67 innings pitched in his first taste of the Majors last season

Gonzalez, the team's 2013 first-round pick (No. 23 overall), is 3-6 with a 5.04 ERA in 14 starts with Round Rock this season. Despite the high ERA, he carried a 3.90 ERA in 14 appearances (10 starts) with the Rangers last year. He also threw 1 2/3 innings in the American League Division Series against the Blue Jays. "This is familiarity. He stepped up big for us when he first came up last year, and just the overall body of work," manager Jeff Banister said. "It kind of plays into the philosophy of a three-pitch-or-less mentality, get the ball on the ground. Given the overall choices, I felt like he was the best fit for us right now."

he's been working on his mechanics, which yielded good results in his last few Round Rock starts. he hopes it will carry over into his starts with the big team

Jimmy Nelson, who has gone 5-6 with a 3.60 ERA in 16 starts this year, including 0-1 with a 4.61 ERA in his last three starts and 1-3 with a 5.66 ERA in seven starts on the road. Nelson has now gone 8-15 with a 4.56 ERA in 30 games (28 starts) on the road in his career and 3-11 with a 5.02 ERA in 20 day games (18 day starts), while vs the Cardinals he is 0-5 with a 9.51 ERA in six games (five starts), including 0-2 with an 11.81 ERA in two games (one start) here at Busch

The biggest let down of the day was this Justin Verlander start against the Indians, where he allowed 4 - yes FOUR - homeruns in the fifth inning alone enroute to a 4.2 IP, 8 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks line. Whatareyougonnado. I'm sure a good amount of you guys are worried about this outing after such a good run from - and let me ease your mind. The velocity was fine, it really was just "one of those days" where it wasn't clicking on his end and his batters were on point. Don't do anything rash -

Snell picked up his first Major League win on Monday, but he still lacked command on many of his pitches after throwing two perfect innings to start...Because of these problems, Snell doesn't go deep in ballgames meaning an awful bullpen comes into play. Tampa's relievers have given up a ton of runs this series. Detroit is hitting around .257 against left-handed starters this season.

Harrell will get the start after Bud Norris was traded to the Dodgers on Thursday. His last Major League start was with the Astros on April 15, 2014. ....Harrell was 2-1 with a 2.81 ERA in nine appearances, five starts, for Gwinnett. In his starts, he did not allow more than three runs. He pitched six scoreless innings in his last start against Charlotte on Sunday....Harrell has major league experience, going 18-33 with a 4.84 ERA over five years. He won 11 games for the Astros in 2012.

In nine starts this season, Danny Duffy owns a 3.33 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 10.7 K/9. However, he's somehow still available in 62 percent of ESPN.com leagues. He should be snatched up for Saturday's matchup against the Phillies, who are truly awful against lefty pitching, sporting an MLB-worst 60 wRC+ to go along with a 24 percent strikeout rate.

Duffy matched a career high with eight innings, while posting his fourth quality start of the month, in a win over the Cardinals last Monday. The Royals have gone 6-3 this season with Duffy on the mound since he joined the rotation.

More than anything else, Nola (5-7, 4.45 ERA) will be looking to improve his location when he opposes Royals left-hander Danny Duffy (3-1, 3.24).

"The more I think about it, and the more I look at the video, all his good starts, the ball was down at the knees," Mackanin said. "All his bad starts, the ball's elevated. He's not keeping the ball down in the zone."...Pitching coach Bob McClure has discussed that with Nola

----
Arrieta's struggles continued vs. the Reds as he gave up a season-high five runs and five walks over five innings. Arrieta still has a 2.10 ERA, but he's walked 20 in his last 40 innings, and four of the five runs he allowed Monday reached on a walk.

Texas vs. Minnesota
Pick: Texas

Chi Chi Gonzalez may sound more like a professional golfer's name than a baseball player, but the man with that moniker is back in the rotation with the Texas Rangers in his second season in the bigs. Gonzalez had a solid - if not stellar - rookie season with Texas, having gone 4-6 with a 3.90 ERA in 14 games (10 starts) in 2015. His first start of this season last Monday certainly does not instill confidence going into this game today, but that first one was in Yankee Stadium - a place that can be deadly to righthanded pitchers. Gonzalez should have an easier time of it today at Target Field against the Twins. After a very promising rookie season in which he went 5-1 with a 3.10 ERA in 10 starts, LHP Tyler Duffey has taken a step backwards in 2016. So far, Duffey is 3-6 with an ugly 5.59 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in his 12 starts covering just under 68 innings. It could get ugly fast for Duffey this afternoon as the Rangers' .294 batting average vs. southpaws is the best number in the American League. The Twins are just 15-25 at home this season while the Rangers are very strong on the road at 23-17.


Detroit Tigers -118

Detroit is showing some great value here as a small road favorite against the Rays. The Tigers won yesterday's series opener 10-2 and have now scored 10 runs in each of their last 3 games. Detroit has won 4 straight overall and 8 of their last 11. Tampa Bay on the other hand has lost 14 of their last 16.

The Tigers give the ball to Justin Verlander, who is coming off a ugly start against the Indians, where he gave up 8 runs on 9 hits in 4 2/3 innings. Prior to that Verlander had been pitching very well and I look for him to bounce back in a big way against a Rays offense that is scoring just 3.6 runs/game at home. Verlander is also 7-3 with a 3.49 ERA in 14 career starts against the Rays.

Detroit should be able to stay hot at the plate, as they face off against rookie Blake Snell, who has a 4.11 ERA and 2.153 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Snell is only averaging 5 1/3 innings/start and has walked 10 batters in his last 15 1/3 innings of work.

Tigers are 11-4 in their last 15 after scoring 10 or more runs and 10-0 in their last 10 after a win by 8 or more runs. They are also 21-9 on the season as a favorite of -110 or more and 23-13 in their last 26 road day games.
 

Terryray

Say Parlay
Forum Member
Dec 6, 2001
9,832
2,284
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Kansas City area for who knows how long....
07:15 PM [906] WAS NATIONALS -1.5 -105 ( D STRAILY -R / J ROSS -R )
07:15 PM [908] TOTAL u7+105 (CHI CUBS vrs NY METS) ( J ARRIETA -R / B COLON -R )
10:10 PM [912] LA DODGERS -175 ( C BETTIS -R / S KAZMIR -L )
07:15 PM [921] TOTAL o10-120 (LA ANGELS vrs BOS RED SOX) ( H SANTIAGO -L / C BUCHHOLZ -R )
10:10 PM [929] TOTAL o7-115 (NY YANKEES vrs SDG PADRES) ( I NOVA -R / D POMERANZ -L )

1 unit bet pays 20.56 ....betdsi line


Goooooood Luck ALLLL!!!! :spotting: :00hour:em71: :drinky: :mj06:


ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:

Starting pitchers allowing 1+ runs in first inning:
Cin-Wsh-- Straily 3-14; Ross 5-14 (4 of last 5)
Col-LA-- Bettis 7-16 (5 of last 6); Kazmir 9-16 (4 of last 5)
LA-Bos-- Santiago 8-16; Buchholz 6-12

under is 12-3 in last 15 Dodger home games, and after last night they are 22-7 to the under in next start after they hit an Over, this season....

Much has been made of Arrieta's climbing walk rate. After issuing just 48 free passes in 33 starts in 2015, he's already allowed 40 walks in 16 starts this season, including nine in his last two starts combined. Then again, Arrieta's 2.10 ERA is still top-five in baseball, his 55 percent ground-ball rate is right in line with last year and his 9.7 K/9 (which includes an 11.1 K/9 over his last 10 starts) is a career best, so let's not overreact. He's still an ace. He's also set up very well on Saturday with a road tilt against the Mets, who are below average against righties and fan at a 23 percent clip.

Rich Hill is set to return to the mound on Saturday after being sidelined for a month with a groin injury. After pitching three-plus innings in a rehab start for High-A Stockton on Monday, the lefty could be kept to a pitch count on Saturday...However, Hill is facing a Pirates team that strikes out 24 percent of the time against left-handed pitching and was the worst offense team in baseball in June (82 wRC+)..

Cubs / Mets Under 7

Yesterday we cashed on the Over as a free winner in the Cubs vs. Mets game, but today the UNDER has the value. Both starting pitchers have been extremely dominant this season, as they hold low ERAs. Jake Arrieta goes for the Cubs and in 5 career starts against New York, Arrieta has been stellar. He's gone 2-1 with a superb ERA of 1.82.

Bartolo Colon counters for the Mets as he hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in a start in quite some time. Colon has seen the Cubs twice in his career, allowing only 2 runs in 14.0 innings of work.

Some trends to consider. Under is 3-1-1 in Arrietas last 5 starts vs. Mets. Under is 9-4-2 in the last 15 meetings.

Look for both pitchers to keep the offenses off balances, as runs are at a premium here in this one.


LA ANGELS +145 over Boston

Boston starter Clay Buchholz was sent to the bullpen in May because of a 7.00+ ERA, but in late June the struggling Sox had to put him back in the rotation because they were out of viable arms. Today, we'll gladly take the nice underdog price and wade in again against Buchholz, whose ERA is 7.63 in his last three starts and 6.31 overall. Yes, the Angels are in a serious funk right now, but Boston is 5-10 (-7 UNITS) against left-handed starters this year and we can't pass up this juicy price, or the chance to fade Buchholz again.

Saturday's play is all predicated on Boston starter Clay Buchholz serving them up, and getting roundly booed as he exits the rubber from Fenway Park this Saturday night.

Buchholz in a word has been, dreadful!

He stands at 3-8 with a 5.90 ERA for the season, and his ERA is 7.63 for his last 3 efforts. He was just shellacked by the Rangers in his last trip to the hill, and I am sure the Fenway faithful are just waiting for that first run to cross so they can give him an earful. Believe me, it will happen!

As for Hector Santiago, 2 of his last 3 starts have landed Over the total, and 10 of his 16 starts overall this season have also landed Over the total.

Last night's series opener just fell shy of going Over the total, but Boston is still 6-3 Over the total in their last 9 games played, and the Over in the series has now cashed in 2 of the last 3 meetings.

Boo-birds out in force, and Buchholz hears them all.

Halos-BoSox Over the total.

4* L.A. ANGELS-BOSTON OVER

Pittsburgh +136 over OAKLAND

Chad Kuhl pitched five innings and was credited with the win last Sunday in a 4-3 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Kuhl allowed three runs and four hits in five innings after getting called up from Class AAA Indianapolis before the game. Kuhl struck out five and walked four. The walks were a little troubling, but a nice debut by Kuhl, especially when you consider it was against Clayton Kershaw. He was profiled in our Call-ups section here. The kid looked good in a high profile game that was featured on ESPN?s Sunday Night Baseball and is certainly worth another look here.

Rich Hill has a 2.25 ERA after 11 starts. Last year, Rich Hill pitched a total of 29 innings for the Red Sox and posted a 1.55 ERA. Rich Hill is 36-years-old. Oh, to be a lefty and blessed with infinite opportunities. After years of chronically terrible control, Hill changed his arm slot last summer and actually found something (double-digit K?s vL and vR in four Sept starts). He has 74 K?s in 64 innings this year. It would be easy to call all of it a blip, but it's just enough to hold our attention when he?s being offered a price. Pitching for the A?s and as a favorite in this range against the undervalued Pirates, we?re not interested. Hill is coming off the DL to make this start, his first since May 29, which does not add to his appeal. He'll also be on a pitch count.

Colorado +167 over LOS ANGELES

Scott Kazmir has 91 K?s in 89 innings, which puts him in elite company in the K-rate department. However, when you take away Kazmir?s strikeout ability, the overall picture is ugly. The key to beating Kazmir is to just stay within a run or two because he gets progressively worse as the game wears on mostly due to a steady deterioration of strikeouts. Kazmir has 11.6 K?s/9 the first time through the order, 7.7 the second time and 5.6 the third time. He also has a WHIP (1.32) above our threshold of acceptability. Kazmir?s WHIP over his last five starts is 1.60. He?s also walked 34 batters overall and 13 batters over his past 25 innings. What we have here with Kazmir is a rising xERA trend and a big second half skills erosion last year that appears on the brink of happening again. Kazmir is now priced like an elite starter when he?s nothing of the sort. Win or lose, Scott Kazmir cannot be priced in this range.

We keep insisting that luck plays a huge roll in the outcome of games and anyone that watched Darwin Barney and Ryan Goins pitching for the Blue Jays yesterday know exactly what we mean. Line drives are hit right at people. Other times they?re in the gap. Other times they are one inch above a leaping middle infielder. Soft popups fall in. Other times they are one row foul in the stands. Wind gusts matter. So when we discuss strand rates, hit rates, and hr/f rates, we are discussing the three most luck-driven stats in baseball. A strand rate is not a skill and if you need further proof, look up strand rates over the past decade. Every year the leaderboard is different. There is no consistency whatsoever from any pitcher. In regards to strand rates, pitchers are either lucky, league average or unlucky. The same goes for hit rates and hr/f rates.

Scott Kazmir is priced in this range because Chad Bettis has an ugly near-6 ERA after 16 starts. That said, a 33% hit%, 63% strand %, and 18% hr/f have all teamed to torpedo his stats. Bettis actually owns some very strong skills that keep getting better. He has an elite 55% groundball rate. His first-pitch strike rate is elite at 73%. Bettis is also striking out more batters and has a nifty 5/23 BB/K split over his last 25 frames. Bettis is a pitcher that missed a month last year but returned to throw eight dominant starts in nine attempts. He?s trending in the right direction and is very worthy of backing at prices like this. Big overlay.
 
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