Sat. plays

[Box and one]

BYU +4.5 over Air Force
Hate going against a team that I've won with the past few weeks.Love DeBerry and his offense.AF is firing on all pistons.But BYU is BYU.DeBerry cannot beat BYU.He is 3-13 vs them.He will have trouble stopping the BYU offense.He runs that 3-3-5 defense but Crowton will attack it like lyr.Of course BYU defense will have big time problems stopping AF.But BYU has some size on the lines and it's running game could cause AF defense headaches.BYU will pass between the seams of the defense.
Crowton will hit his TE vs their defense.Lyr there TE had 10 receptions for 177yds and 3 tds.
Trends favor AF.But I think this game goes right down to the wire.A FG could deceide this game.Getting 4.5 pts is a gift.Because BYU could win this outright.Also AF is a little banged up.Engemann will get enough protection to keep it close.BYU isn't a road dog very often.In the past 3 yrs only 5 times.[2-3]

TCU -20 over Army
It's raining here in the Hudson Valley.Berry has benched some seniors blaming them on the losing streak.Have so much on this game but no time.
It's homecoming.Army is 3-24 under Berry.Lost 8 of 9,4 str.etc,etc.
Nevels the soph is back at Qb.He can't throw but he can run.He's been out 5 weeks with a bad hamstring.Why would you waste him today vs a tough TCU defense.They are 7th in the nation in rushing defense.Nevels will re-injure his hamstring on the slippery field.
Army defense is terible.Offense is bad.Punting and KR teams are ranked last in the country.No 1 in the nation in TO ratio.TCU is 7th in the nation.Army has 19 To's and 12 of those turned into 72 pts.
TCU offense is so-so.But Latarence Dunbar is a top WR and Kr in the country.he will score on special teams today.Maybe get 2 TD's.
Army can't pass.TCU has held North Texas and Houston to 61 total yds rushing in last 2 games.TCU is athletic and fast.The rain will slow them down a little.
But not enough.TCU wins this by 21-30 pts.

Fresno -23 over Smoo
I'm just going to ride Smoo until they lose.There making me big bucks every week.Fresno defense just needs to stop Kincade.Tate can't throw.They were leading san jose St 20-7 in the 1st half.But fell apart.Also be careful with SHSU taking the +29 vs Ohio St.If Smoo was laeading them by 13,Ohio St will be ahead by 30.
Lyr Fresno won 38-13.Fresno is coming off a 32-30 win over Col St.Think they win big at home tonite

Also like Texas AM -20 over Baylor
Texas AM unloads on them after TT shootout.TAM scored 7 Tds and had 500yds last week.And lost.After leading 35-17 and letting TT score 24 pts late in the game.Lordie,lordie,jump in the Aggies.Your getting great value on this game.Bears won last week and Aggies lost.This line the past few yrs has always been 25,27 and 30 pts.Only giving 20 is a gift.

Gotta run
Will play these for smaller plays and some parlays
Ok St +14.5 vs kansas St- think they can keep it close
Miami -13 over FSU- i say blowout and run it up if you can
Cuse -3 over Temple-like this one a lot.Cuse unloads
Pitt +7.5 over ND-only because Pitt killed me last week
Col St -24.5 over Wyoming- blew them out lyr,and are still steaming over 2 pt loss lweek.
Texas-4 over OU-everyone is on OU.Texas has to beat them this yr.They have too.Simms has to step up for the 1st time.But my 'longhorn" daughter
watched the Ok St-UT game last week and said"we are going to get killed".
North car +6 over Nc St
So Miss -3 over So Fl
Of course way to many games.
Luv game is Rice.
Texas AM is a strong play
BYU,Cuse, and Fresno I like alot
TCU,Col St and Ok St are even
GL today

 

[Box and one]

Rice-7 over Navy [line has moved up to 7.5 in some places]
Both teams run the same type of option offenses.So both defenses practice it every week.They mirror themselves a lot.But if you look closly in that mirror there are some big differences.
Both teams are 1-4.Navy is going nowhere.They have one of the worst defenses in the country.They give up 477 yds per game and 42 pts.They have lost 12 str.at home.Their rushing offense is 3rd in the nation but they have scored 2 Td's in the past 6 quarters.So there is a big shakeup at Annapolis.
Navy fumbles all the time so Johnson has benched his 2 top all purpose backs.Lane and Roberts have 737 yds and 482 yds.But 13 fumbles among the two.So both have been banished to the pine.In comes Tepper who has a total of 4 carries for 21 yds.And plebe Matthews who has a lot of potential.Also 3rd string qb Owens has been moved to RB and Wr Weeds moved also.The point is everyone is moving to replace Navys top 2 players.
Navy defense cannot stop anyone.They gave up 65 pts to NC St,49 to Northwestern,43 to Duke and 48 to Air Force.
In comes Rice that won lyr at Navy 21-13.Although they are 1-4 and appear to have a crack in the mirror they have some hope.
Rice did lose to Houston opening day,lost to Mich St by 17,Nevada 10,Fresno by 3 and upset La Tech last week 37-20.But Rice plays in the WAC.Thats a crazy conf.
Hatfield's win last week stopping the LaTech offense is a jump start on whats to come.Even though they are 1-4 they can be in the hunt for the WAC title.
They have UTEP,Smoo,and Tulsa next.They are 1-15 combined.
Rices offense is ranked 9th in rushing.Only a few slots below Navys.But Rice's defense can stop people.They shut down La Tech who had 500yds vs Penn st.
Owls option offense will cause navy problems all day.Hatfield plays the "broken bone" wish.They line up in 10 different formations.They avg 246 yds on the ground and throw the ball a little to keep people honest.Last week vs laTech they threw 3 bombs when Tech jammed the line.
Their entire backfield is 5'6,5'7,5'8.5'9,5'10.Herm the Qb is 5'8.These guys cannot see themselves in the mirror because the mirror is 6 feet tall.But these little bastards have scored 24-29 times in the red zone.
They run a no huddle offense and attack,confuse,attack,etc.Middies have trouble against teams that set up.They will have major problems all day with no huddles.
Rice played here lyr so they are used to the field.Hatfield has played Navy many times when he coached at AF and Arkansas.
I think with the Navy benching their top backs,a defense that will have problems with all the Rice offensive schemes,the Owls win this game by a couple of TDs.Whenever a WAC team comes east to play a Navy team they get beat pretty bad.I know Rice has lost it's last 5 road games but lyr won 4 road games.
The Broken "bone" spread offense wins big in Annapolis.This is a "luv" game.
Will post this and continue on a few more games.

 

[Caesar]

You are Missing the Boat

You are Missing the Boat

Air Force can beat BYU and will handle them with quickness. Have been to BYU_AF games in the Springs and when talent levels are equal, AF wins (just like 1995). Good Luck, but I am against in AF-BYU