South Carolina -4
I'll side with the home team in Columbia as look for South Carolina to win and cover over the very-much-in-danger-to-miss-the-tournament Kentucky Wildcats.
Tubby Smith's team has had offensive issues, especially inside, for much of the season. Now here of the late, the Cats can't defend as this is a Wildcat team that is only 6-5 SU and 4-7 ATS in conference play this year. And this is a down year in the SEC.
Tubby has tried to shake things up of late as Wednesday's victory over visiting Georgia found normal Kentucky starters Rajon Rondo, Randolph Morris and Joe Crawford finding themselves on the bench at tip-off due to sub-par practice performances. If Tubby does that today (and starts a couple of walk-ons and such), his team could find itself down a bunch early.
The Cocks are surging (3-0 SU/ATS run) and they have a favorable closing schedule with very winnable road games at Georgia and Auburn in addition to its home slate. At 14-10 SU, the Cocks are focused on a late run to make the Big Dance. South Carolina is tough in Columbia (39-9 SU the last three seasons, 7-3 ATS this year) and is playing its third straight home game after beating Mississippi State by 22 last Saturday and Alabama by 11 on Tuesday.
Opponents are shooting just 39 percent in Columbia against the defensively tight Cocks (South Carolina conversely shooting 48 percent in its own building). Kentucky has struggled this year against good defensive teams (3-6 ATS this year versus teams whom allow 64 points or less) and the Cats are 0-3 SU as a dog this year. Kentucky is a poor free throw shooting and its last five opponents are shooting at a 47 percent clip from the field.
Kentucky has dropped two straight on the road (and it's hard for me to forget that 27-point drubbing it took at Kansas last month) and has failed to cover in three straight versus South Carolina (Cocks won by a dozen points last season in Columbia and fell by a basket a few weeks back in Lexington).
This is a South Carolina club that has swept Florida SU this year and is bursting with confidence behind the athletic play of Renaldo Balkman (28 points in Tuesday's national TV win over Bama). Tre' Kelley has been hot of late and the Cocks' four-guard attatck will expose Kentucky's weak defense today. South Carolina by eight-to-12 points in this one!
