Outback Bowl
arkansas (ML) 4 units to win 4.4. this is one of the games i bet 3 weeks ago. with dotson and brisker sitting out for psu, the line has shifted a little. anyway, huge motivational edge here to the razorbacks. psu had early wins against wisconsin and auburn. but they have lost 5 of their last 7, with the 2 wins over maryland and rutgers. clifford is not good, and now he's missing the guy who caught 37% of his completions.
on the other side of the ball, arkansas is run-heavy, with 530 runs vs 294 pass attempts. in the past, that would have been trouble against psu. but their run d isn't quite as stout as they have been. and jefferson has been good enough with his arm that you can't put 11 in the box. these numbers surprise me, given that he didn't impress me the couple times i saw arkansas this year. but he's completing 67% of his passes with 21 TDs and only 3 INTs. and he's averaging 9.4 yards/att. pretty damn good.
the best way to beat arkansas is to get a lead and make them throw the ball. unless psu scores a couple times on defense or special teams, it's hard to see that happening.
Fiesta Bowl
ok st (ML) 4 units to win 4.5. another game i bet early, but the line hasn't budged on this one. i'm willing to overlook the cowboys' game against baylor. it was a tough spot for them, coming off the huge win over ok. i'm betting that they can re-focus and show up to face nd. if they do, that d is going to shut down a somewhat average nd offense.
Citrus Bowl
really don't know what to do with this one. i can't lay points with uk, but this is not a vintage iowa team. their offense is inept. so i finally decided on....
iowa TT under (21) 3 units. it's really hard to see iowa moving the ball. my biggest concern... Levis throws too many picks and iowa, as they seemingly do every year, leads the country in INTs. i wouldn't be shocked to see the hawkeyes score on a couple TAINTs. can i just bet under on iowa's OFFENSIVE points? that'd be an easy win.
Rose Bowl
utah (ML) 6 units to win 10.5. the last of the games i bet early, and glad i did. even with the line drop, i'm tempted to bet more on the utes. i LOVE them in this spot. they have been on a tear since early in the season. just like every year, they are a tough team and they won't be intimidated by ohio st. i think they're going to really get after stroud. and, yes, another huge motivational edge. utah finally made the rose bowl! ohio st is still licking their wounds after michigan knocked them out of the nc picture.
Sugar Bowl
baylor (ML) 3 units.
under (55) 6 units. i'm going to hate myself for betting the bears in this one. but what a great story, going 11-2 one year after going 2-7 in dave aranda's first year. obviously baylor's d is going to have to step up in a big way to stay in this game. but they are certainly capable. and they'll need their offense to control the game with their solid ground attack, against an ole miss defense that gives up 182 rushing yards/game, 101st in the country.
arkansas (ML) 4 units to win 4.4. this is one of the games i bet 3 weeks ago. with dotson and brisker sitting out for psu, the line has shifted a little. anyway, huge motivational edge here to the razorbacks. psu had early wins against wisconsin and auburn. but they have lost 5 of their last 7, with the 2 wins over maryland and rutgers. clifford is not good, and now he's missing the guy who caught 37% of his completions.
on the other side of the ball, arkansas is run-heavy, with 530 runs vs 294 pass attempts. in the past, that would have been trouble against psu. but their run d isn't quite as stout as they have been. and jefferson has been good enough with his arm that you can't put 11 in the box. these numbers surprise me, given that he didn't impress me the couple times i saw arkansas this year. but he's completing 67% of his passes with 21 TDs and only 3 INTs. and he's averaging 9.4 yards/att. pretty damn good.
the best way to beat arkansas is to get a lead and make them throw the ball. unless psu scores a couple times on defense or special teams, it's hard to see that happening.
Fiesta Bowl
ok st (ML) 4 units to win 4.5. another game i bet early, but the line hasn't budged on this one. i'm willing to overlook the cowboys' game against baylor. it was a tough spot for them, coming off the huge win over ok. i'm betting that they can re-focus and show up to face nd. if they do, that d is going to shut down a somewhat average nd offense.
Citrus Bowl
really don't know what to do with this one. i can't lay points with uk, but this is not a vintage iowa team. their offense is inept. so i finally decided on....
iowa TT under (21) 3 units. it's really hard to see iowa moving the ball. my biggest concern... Levis throws too many picks and iowa, as they seemingly do every year, leads the country in INTs. i wouldn't be shocked to see the hawkeyes score on a couple TAINTs. can i just bet under on iowa's OFFENSIVE points? that'd be an easy win.
Rose Bowl
utah (ML) 6 units to win 10.5. the last of the games i bet early, and glad i did. even with the line drop, i'm tempted to bet more on the utes. i LOVE them in this spot. they have been on a tear since early in the season. just like every year, they are a tough team and they won't be intimidated by ohio st. i think they're going to really get after stroud. and, yes, another huge motivational edge. utah finally made the rose bowl! ohio st is still licking their wounds after michigan knocked them out of the nc picture.
Sugar Bowl
baylor (ML) 3 units.
under (55) 6 units. i'm going to hate myself for betting the bears in this one. but what a great story, going 11-2 one year after going 2-7 in dave aranda's first year. obviously baylor's d is going to have to step up in a big way to stay in this game. but they are certainly capable. and they'll need their offense to control the game with their solid ground attack, against an ole miss defense that gives up 182 rushing yards/game, 101st in the country.
