Saturday 12/18

[Smitty]

Boca Raton Bowl

app st (ML) 3 units to win 2. my first forced play of the bowl season. don't really like the side or total. but all app st does is win bowl games. so this is one of the extremely rare times i'm playing a fav on the ML.

New Mexico Bowl

utep 1st Half (+6.5) 2 units
utep 1st Half (ML) 1 unit to win 2.6. make no mistake. fresno is by far the better team. but, as we all know, the best team doesn't always win the bowl game. i'm going to take a shot with the fired up miners keeping it close for at least the first half. besides, utep already has won a game in new mexico this year. fresno hasn't. huge factor, for sure.

Independence Bowl

UAB (ML) 4 units to win 8.6
UAB 1st Half (+4) 3 units. obvious huge motivational edge here. and the line tells you all you need to know. need a huge game from mcbride against a byu run defense that hasn't been all that great. and when you're already suspect against the run and you're not fired up to play the game... uab can have success on the ground. i'm a little concerned because mcbride left their last game with an ankle injury. but i can't find anything that indicates he's going to miss this game. i even checked his twitter feed. yes, seriously. so if anyone has info to the contrary, please let me know.

 

[Smitty]

LendingTree Bowl

LendingTree Bowl

i still remember sitting on grandpa's lap after thanksgiving dinner and saying "pawpaw. how much longer do we have to wait until the LendingTree Bowl?"

EMU 1st Half (+4.5) 2 units
EMU (+9.5) 2 units
EMU (ML) 1 unit to win 2.6. as usual, i'm playing more against a team than on a team. after a terrific 2020, liberty returned to mediocrity this year. maybe hugh freeze finally found some good escorts in lynchburg, va. anyway, i don't know how fired up the flames will be for this one. emu, on the other hand, has to be pretty excited. it's time for them to get chris creighton his first bowl win.

here's something odd i came across, and i'm wondering if we still have any mac guys around who may be able to explain it. jawon hamilton of emu averages 6.2 yards/carry. the other 2 rbs with at least 70 carries average 3.7. and yet hamilton doesn't lead the team in carries. their last game of the season, he had one carry for 9 yards. in fact, since they started conference play, he's only had double digit carries in one game. and in that one game, he had 19 carries for 187 yards. so why the hell is this guy not getting the ball more?

 

[Smitty]

Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl

Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl

wait, what? what's next? a game mascot called Jimmy Kamel? Wait, what? yes, that's real, too. you're welcome.

Oregon St (-7) 5 units. i've come full circle on this one. watched utah st in the mountain west championship game and thought they looked like a decent team, and oregon st is just another mediocre pac 12 team. but after a little digging, i've changed my mind in a big way.

obviously you always have to start with motivation in pre-new years bowl games. and it's not often the power-5 team has the motivational edge, but they sure do here. it's their first bowl game since 2013. which, i'm pretty sure, is before most of these players were even born. so you have the team with, presumably, bigger, better linemen with the motivational edge. can oregon st run the ball? yup. they are 9th in the country, averaging 5.38 yards/carry. utah st is 84th in the country, allowing 4.4 yards/carry. the aggies have faced 3 teams in the top 40 rushing yards per game. air force lit them up for 437 yards (6.9 per carry), byu ran for 221 (6.1 per carry), and wyoming, WYOMING!, ran for 362 (7.4 per carry). i think the beavers are going to absolutely dominate this game with the ground game.

now, i don't want to sugarcoat this... oregon state's defense is not good. they are especially vulnerable to the pass, and bonner is solid. but what's the best way to beat a good passing attack? keep them off the field with some long drives.

i like the beavers to wear down utah st and gradually pull away.

oh, one more factor..... blake anderson is in his first year coaching the aggies. i don't remember the numbers, but coaches in their first year at a school have a horrendous record in bowl games.

 

[Smitty]

New Orleans Bowl

New Orleans Bowl

Marshall (ML) 4 units to win 6.8
Marshall 1st Half (+2.5) 2 units. well, shit. marshall also has a 1st year head coach. but i love betting against bowl teams that are basically playing home games. so i'm not going to get into the nuts and bolts of this game. that would probably make me want to bet the ragin cajuns. marshall's qb is meh. he turns the ball over way too much (12 INTs with 16 TDs). and lewis is a very solid college qb. but i think the ragin cajuns shot their load to win the conference title in napier's last game. i expect them to be flat, and i am hoping marshall has just enough to win this game.

 

[rocky mountain]

i still remember sitting on grandpa's lap after thanksgiving dinner and saying "pawpaw. how much longer do we have to wait until the LendingTree Bowl?"

EMU 1st Half (+4.5) 2 units
EMU (+9.5) 2 units
EMU (ML) 1 unit to win 2.6. as usual, i'm playing more against a team than on a team. after a terrific 2020, liberty returned to mediocrity this year. maybe hugh freeze finally found some good escorts in lynchburg, va. anyway, i don't know how fired up the flames will be for this one. emu, on the other hand, has to be pretty excited. it's time for them to get chris creighton his first bowl win.

here's something odd i came across, and i'm wondering if we still have any mac guys around who may be able to explain it. jawon hamilton of emu averages 6.2 yards/carry. the other 2 rbs with at least 70 carries average 3.7. and yet hamilton doesn't lead the team in carries. their last game of the season, he had one carry for 9 yards. in fact, since they started conference play, he's only had double digit carries in one game. and in that one game, he had 19 carries for 187 yards. so why the hell is this guy not getting the ball more?

Paw paw, Lending Tree comments hysterical... times are a changing :mj07:

 

[ejthree]

Smitty you are "Da Man" Not only insightful as always but just the right amount of humor...BOL with your picks and a prosperous holidays...:0074

 

[Smitty]

Smitty you are "Da Man" Not only insightful as always but just the right amount of humor...BOL with your picks and a prosperous holidays...:0074

thanks, ej! hopefully the blue raiders were just the start of a great bowl season. we shall see.